What issues are most important to voters as midterm elections loom? What new poll finds

The midterm elections, widely considered to be a referendum on the sitting president’s performance, are fewer than two months away — and Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans despite widespread economic frustration, according to a new poll.

The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, which surveyed 1,236 adults across the U.S., found that 48 percent of registered voters are more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate in their district, as opposed to 44 percent for Republicans. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

This edge comes as President Joe Biden’s favorability ticked up six points to 44 percent in August, according to Gallup, following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, announcement of widespread student loan forgiveness and falling gas prices.

Still, many Democrats, who control both the U.S. House and Senate, are tempering expectations as the president’s party historically loses ground in the midterm elections.

The poll also found inflation was the most-cited voting issue, with nearly one-third of respondents listing it as their primary concern. An additional 68 percent of respondents said the US is in a recession, a statement the White House and the Fed have protested.

A separate Gallup poll revealed 56 percent of Americans say rising prices are inflicting financial hardship on their households, with three-fourths of lower-income Americans reporting moderate to severe hardship.

Still, the share of respondents who selected inflation as the “top of mind” issue related to midterm voting is down seven percentage points since July amidst signs that inflation may have reached its peak.

Following inflation, abortion was cited by 22 percent of respondents as their primary voting concern, marking a four percent increase from July.

Additionally, over half of adults polled said that the Supreme Court’s landmark decision to overturn Roe v. Wade — a 1973 ruling that found the Constitution protected a federal right to abortion — increased their likelihood of voting in the midterms. That figure is down three percentage points/from late June, when the Supreme Court released its official opinion, sending the issue of abortion back to the states.

Health care was cited by 13 percent of respondents as the “top of mind” issue, while the January 6th committee hearings, immigration and guns trailed behind in the single digits.

Inflation and abortion — the major, top of mind issues this fall — will likely advantage both parties as an overwhelming majority of Democrats did not want Roe v. Wade overturned, and female voter registration soared following the Supreme Court’s decision, according to Bloomberg. At the same time, polling shows more Americans believe Republicans are best suited to tackle economic issues, like inflation.

As of Sept. 9, FiveThirtyEight, a data analysis site, predicts the Democrats are “slightly favored” to retain the Senate, while the Republicans are “favored” to win the House. It gives Democrats a 26% chance to maintain both the U.S. Senate and House, while Republicans have a 30% chance of winning both chambers.

But the most likely outcome — with a 43% probability — is that Democrats maintain the Senate while Republicans reclaim the House after losing it in the 2018 midterms under former President Donald Trump.

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