As Israel braces itself for an attack by Iran, the US leads the effort to avert wider war in Middle East
With Iran and Israel trading threats and counter-threats during one of the most serious confrontations between the two adversaries, intensive diplomatic efforts are underway to avert a wider war in the Middle East.
There are reports that US intelligence officials have reiterated their warning that an imminent attack may take place in Israel in retaliation for the killing of a general and six other senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
According to various accounts, Iran may launch ballistic missiles in a simultaneous attack on a number of targets in Israel, including the military headquarters in Tel Aviv, the Dimona nuclear facility, and an airport in Haifa. However, there are also reports that Tehran has indicated to the US through back channels that while the deaths must be avenged, the response would be proportionate, take place at a time of its choosing, and not involve American or other Western targets.
The Biden administration is facing growing criticism over its apparent inability to influence the Israeli government as it tries hard to stop the Israel-Gaza conflict from spreading in the region.
Joe Biden’s public announcement on Wednesday that Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel” and that America’s “commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is iron-clad”, was viewed as a public warning to Iran.
His defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, gave the same reassurance to Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant on a call. However, in another indication of the fraying relations between the US and Israel, Mr Austin complained about Israel’s failure to inform Washington before carrying out the IRGC strike. This has left American personnel in the area unprepared for Iranian attacks that could have followed.
Meanwhile, a concerted campaign is underway on the part of the US and its allies to persuade Iran not to take action that could lead to a highly volatile situation spiralling out of control.
The British foreign secretary, David Cameron, spoke by telephone to his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Amirabdollahian on Thursday. US secretary of state Antony Blinken has asked other countries, including Turkey, China and Saudi Arabia – the last of which is rebuilding its links with Iran – to intercede with Tehran. Similar messages have been sent by Brett McGurk, the lead on the Middle East at the White House, to Iraq, the UAE and Oman.
During a visit to Oman, which has acted as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran over the years, Mr Amirabdollahian is said to have reiterated that Iran did not want a war, echoing what he had told Saudi, Iraqi and Emirati officials.
According to Iranian officials, the IRGC has presented the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with a series of military options against Israel, and he is considering which course to take in consultation with his advisers – some of whom are said to feel that a flagrant provocation such as the consulate killings, which came after a series of attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria as well as assassinations of scientists engaged in nuclear projects in Iran, demands a fierce response.
Others have argued that a full-scale, direct attack on Israel would play into Israeli hands, with the US and the West being drawn in to support Tel Aviv, just when Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was becoming internationally isolated over Gaza.
In the end, as with any other major issue in Iran, the final decision will be made by the supreme leader. Israel, along with the wider region and beyond, will go through a fraught period of waiting while that takes place.
