Indiana football vs. Purdue: Scouting report, prediction

BLOOMINGTON — Indiana football coach Tom Allen spent the week educating his players about the importance of the program’s long-standing rivalry with Purdue.

Allen emphasized the history lessons given the large number of transfers the Hoosiers have signed over the last two seasons.

“Every single day this week we are going to have an alumni video speaker that is going to challenge our guys about the bucket,” Allen said. “So just constant every single day just to continue to educate our guys and make them understand how big this game is.”

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Indiana couldn’t maintain the focus and discipline it needed a few weeks ago when it went to Champaign and the stakes of last week’s rivalry game against Michigan State didn’t seem to make much of a difference either.

The Hoosiers should be desperate to win any game given the program’s struggles over the last three seasons whether there’s a prize on the line or not.

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Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy is on a roll

Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy has finally figured out the position.

Tracy, who spent four years at Iowa playing receiver, has been one of the most impressive running backs in the country over the last two weeks with 372 yards (282 rushing) and three touchdowns.

According to Pro Football Focus, he has 198 yards after contact during that stretch with 11 forced missed tackles and nine runs of 10-yards or more.

The Boilermakers are also getting solid production from Devin Mockobee, who is the team’s leading rusher this season with 769 yards (4.99 per carry) with six touchdowns. Their success has allowed the program to put up more than 300 yards in consecutive games for the first time 1968.

The only times Indiana’s run defense has struggled this season is against teams (Akron and Rutgers) with mobile quarterbacks who carried the ball on designed runs.

The Hoosiers have done a good job overall of bottling up explosive runs — they have only allowed nine runs of 20 yards or more this season — and held five opponents to less than four yards per carry.

Brendan Sorsby’s uniform might get dirty

Purdue has an imposing pass rushing duo in Nic Scourton (8 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss) and Kydran Jenkins (7.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss).

Scourton missed last week’s game against Northwestern with an undisclosed injury, but Walters told reporters earlier this week he expected the linebacker to be available.

According to Pro Football Focus, Scourton has a 20.4% pass rush win rate this season, which ranks among the top among all FBS defenders. Jenkins’ 47 quarterback pressures is the 11th most in the country.

Indiana’s offensive line was a glaring weakness in 2022, but that hasn’t been the case this season.

Starting right tackle Kahlil Benson is the only starter who has allowed more than 20 quarterback pressures while center Zach Carpenter, left guard Mike Katic and left tackle Carter Smith have all graded out above average in pass protection this season.

When facing pressure, Sorsby is 17 of 50 (34%) with 248 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Indiana’s defense has to tackle inconsistencies

Indiana safeties Louis Moore and Jamari Sharpe had a chance to stop Michigan State receiver Maliq Carr well short of the goal line on the go-ahead touchdown he scored last week with 1:19 left in the game.

The Spartans scored in similar fashion at the end of the first half on a 29-yard touchdown from Montorie Foster.

After linebacker Aaron Casey missed a tackle, Phillip Dunnam tried to strip the ball instead of bringing him to the ground. Dunnam didn’t play the rest of the game.

“Bottom line is that you've got to do things the right way, and if you don't, somebody is going to be there and take your job,” Allen said.

The attitude is easy to understand from Allen, who watched his team miss a season-high 18 tackles in the loss, according to Pro Football Focus. There were 11 defenders with at least one missed tackle.

That’s not a winning formula, and a clear warning sign that IU’s defense is losing focus.

Prediction: Purdue 35, Indiana 31

This one feels like a total coin flip.

Indiana’s offense has found answers of late leaning on the trio of Brendan Sorsby, Trent Howland and Donoven McCulley, but for every step forward they take the defense seems to find new ways to eliminate that progress.

Purdue's up-and-down season is easier to understand given the presence of an inexperienced first-year coach. The Boilermakers have lost three one-possession games and could easily be 6-5 right now.

They get the edge thanks to the home field advantage, but anything can happen when two bad evenly matched teams take the field.

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Previewing Indiana football's 2023 matchup against Purdue