Indiana football vs. Penn State: Scouting report, prediction

BLOOMINGTON — Former Tennessee Titans defensive back Jason McCourty will be on the call this weekend for CBS Sports when Indiana football visits Penn State.

The Hoosiers (2-5, 0-3 Big Ten) go into the game having lost three straight by a combined score of 127-38. Their loss to Rutgers last week dropped them to 2-21 against Power Five opponents since 2021.

They are trying to keep their hopes for bowl eligibility alive, but McCourty said IU’s motivation should go beyond that.

“When you are in a spiral, it doesn’t mean it can’t get worse,” McCourty said, in a phone interview with The Herald-Times.

The problem for Indiana is that as McCourty rightly pointed out that PSU presents a “rough challenge” to try and turn things around.

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Penn State hits Ohio State-sized road block once again

Penn State coach James Franklin acknowledged the “physical impact and mental impact” of his team’s 20-12 loss to Ohio State last week after a 6-0 start.

“When you look at some of the ways that we've lost to these people, whether it's by a point or whether it's by a possession or one score or however you want to look at it, however you want to term it, those are hard as well because you feel like there's opportunities,” Franklin said.

The Buckeyes have won seven straight over PSU and Franklin is 1-9 overall against them. Those losses have derailed the Nittany Lions title aspirations (CFP and Big Ten) three times during that recent losing streak (2017, 2019 and 2022).

“You can probably tell from my voice, we haven't gotten a whole lot of sleep since that game, for a number of reasons,” Franklin said, during his press conference this week.

Penn State was 1 of 16 on third down against Ohio State and struggled to slow down star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who had 11 catches for 162 and a touchdown. The score came in the final five minutes to all but put the game away.

Is there a risk that disappointment could carry over into Saturday? The thought has crossed Franklin’s mind.

“We've got to make sure that this loss doesn't get us twice, which I think has happened in the past because I think of how everybody in the Penn State community responds to these things,” Franklin said.

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IU’s run defense is a growing concern

Indiana’s defensive failures are becoming just as noticeable as the ones on offense. This is particularly true of a run defense that hasn’t slowed anyone down since facing Indiana State in Week 2.

It was a glaring issue last week given the way Rutgers dominated IU last week while only attempting 12 passes.

The Scarlet Knights weren’t relying on a bunch of gadget plays either.

They simply pounded the ball between the tackles with quarterback Gavin Wimsatt and running back Kyle Monangai. Their offense ran the ball 27 times between the tackles for 104 yards (89 yards after contact) and that’s where they got seven of their 10 rushing first downs, according to Pro Football Focus.

One pattern that’s emerged in recent weeks is Indiana’s defense getting worn down in the fourth quarter.

Michigan had 12 carries for 71 yards in the fourth quarter and Rutgers had 11 carries for 99 yards. The Hoosiers are allowing 6.7 yards per carry in the fourth quarter this season while holding teams to just around 4.0 yards per carry the rest of the game.

Indiana’s offense deserves some blame for that — it needs to put more extended drives together — but the lack of third down stops hasn’t helped.

Penn State won’t be afraid to copy the approach Rutgers took. The Nittany Lions are averaging 181.3 rushing yards per game (No. 33) and ranked 15th in the FBS with 42 carries per game.

They rely on a pretty dynamic one-two punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield, who both have more than 400 yards this season.

“Definitely a major focus,” Allen said, of the run defense on Thursday. “You look at their run game and they are one of the tops in the Big Ten with two talented running backs. Have to do a great job fitting our gaps. To me it is the ability to make some schematic adjustments to be able to adapt to what we believe we are going to see on Saturday.”

One position group Allen wants to see step up is the linebacking corps. Linebacker Aaron Casey was credited with a career-high five missed tackles in the loss to Rutgers.

“I didn't think our linebackers played well at all, and we talked about that as a team,” Allen said. “They didn't play well. That's where those guys have to in my opinion.”

Rod Carey needs to dial it back

It’s not hard figuring out why Indiana’s offense can’t stay on the field.

The Hoosiers have faced third and long (six yards or more) 15 times in the last two weeks and only converted one of them. They are 8 of 26 (30.7%) on third down overall during that stretch.

“That was a key factor in this week and not having the production that we wanted to have as far as points,” Indiana offensive coordinator Rod Carey said.

Carey said he’s tried to be aggressive on first down since taking over as play-caller for Walt Bell, a strategy that hasn’t quite worked out as he hoped.

“You want to do everything as a play-caller to stay out of it,” Carey said. “Obviously, I haven’t at times, but sometimes I have. Some of that is when you are aggressive on first down and it doesn’t work, then you’re setting yourself up for a third-and-long. There’s a balance on how you attack that. The last two weeks we have not done a good enough job of that.”

Carey will need to make those more manageable on Saturday against a Penn State team that has one of the best third-down defenses in the country. Opponents have only converted 28.3% of their third-down attempts against its defense this season. (No. 5 in the FBS).

Prediction: Penn State 49, Indiana 17

Penn State’s average margin of victory during its 6-0 start was 36.3 points. It had a 25.3 point average margin of victory against Big Ten opponents during that stretch. The Nittany Lions might have an Ohio State problem, but their talent level is much closer to the top of the conference than the bottom. Penn State should get back on track in a big way this weekend.

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on Twitter @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Previewing Indiana football's 2023 matchup against Penn State prediction