I'd like to predict a Detroit Lions victory, but the L.A. Rams have too many advantages

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — I have a confession.

Each week during the football season, I’m asked to make a prediction for the Detroit Lions, Michigan and Michigan State games. Each week, I have to fight my personal bias to pick the result based on what I hope happens.

I don’t have a rooting interest for any team. But I might be rooting for a specific narrative, or I might just be rooting for a better travel schedule for the next road game. But I honestly fight that conscious (and subconscious) bias each week.

On Sunday night, when the Lions host the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field, I would prefer to predict a Lions victory. A blowout even.

A triumph over former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford would make for a far better story. It would also mean the Lions would continue their playoff journey, likely traveling to Dallas the next week for another potentially epic revenge game.

But after spending the week with the Rams, speaking with players, coaches and executives and being in the locker room and speaking with reporters who cover the team, my gut tells me the Lions will lose to the Rams.

Remember, I’m not rooting for this. Do you know how many Marriott points and Delta SkyMiles are at stake for me with a trip to Dallas?

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I think the Lions have a slightly better team, though that edge shrinks considerably if rookie tight end Sam LaPorta doesn't play. The teams have similar strengths, as they’re both built around offense. Their defenses both struggle, too, though in different ways — the Lions up front and the Rams in the back end. The Lions have better special teams, especially at punter and in coverage, though neither team trusts its kicker.

But the key factor will be Stafford. He’s the best quarterback left among NFC playoff teams. (Sorry, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy.) It’s a huge game for Goff and Stafford. It’s a bigger game for Goff, as far as what’s at stake for his future and his legacy, but it’s a far bigger game emotionally for Stafford in his return to Detroit.

Let’s not forget something about Stafford and the Rams. Stafford knows Ford Field — that will come in handy as this will be the Rams’ first playoff game since they won the Super Bowl two years ago. These aren’t the same Rams without Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller, but they still have 17 players left from that team, including Aaron Donald, Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, plus huge upgrades at No. 2 receiver in Puka Nacua and at running back in 1,144-yard rusher Kyren Williams — both Pro Bowlers this season in their rookie and sophomore seasons, respectively.

Shall I go on?

How about their offensive coordinator? Mike LaFleur is a Mount Pleasant native who grew up a Lions fan and is the younger brother of Packers coach Matt LaFleur? I wonder if little brother might be able to gain some kind of advantage from the humbling loss his big brother dealt the Lions on Thanksgiving. But, you know, just purely off watching tape, not from any kind of inside information.

Or how about Aubrey Pleasant, the Rams’ defensive backs coach whom Dan Campbell fired last season? I wonder if he might have some valuable intelligence on the Lions’ players and Aaron Glenn’s tendencies?

Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris said this game is obviously bigger than the personal motivation one coach may have, but he admitted it’s certainly there for Pleasant, of whom Morris said “had some great things to say to the team this week.”

“But make no secret about it,” he said. “He wants to get this win because it's the next opponent we have. It’s gonna be a little more special as being Detroit, but he wants to get his win because it’s the next opponent.”

But then there’s the vibe. And it’s real. The Lions have had a good, loose vibe going for weeks in their locker room. But the Rams are at a different level. Almost every coach who spoke with reporters was loose and confident, starting with Sean McVay, who entered the overflowing interview room Wednesday and exclaimed: “Holy (expletive)! This must be a big game.”

But there’s something else, something the Lions can’t replicate: The Lombardi Trophy, a gleaming piece of hardware the Rams have decided to display prominently in their locker room as a not-so-subtle reminder of their recent history. A sign near the trophy reads: “Why not us! #One shot #Our moment”

It feels like it should be the Lions’ moment. The football gods probably owe them a win — and an IRS audit for Brad Allen. But a recent championship team that’s led by a hot, motivated, quarterback making an emotional return is probably a little too much for the Lions or the football gods to overcome. And it’s not a bad narrative, either.

Contact Carlos Monarrez: cmonarrez@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: A Detroit Lions win might be nice, but the L.A. Rams might be too much