Hurricane Warning: North Florida, Big Bend brace for Debby's deluge, wind and surge

The National Hurricane Center put the Big Bend and parts of North Florida under a Hurricane Watch Saturday morning as a strengthening tropical depression set its sights on the Gulf of Mexico and later became Tropical Storm Debby that evening.

Forecasters hoisted the watch and Tropical Storm Warnings for the Florida peninsula after models and the storm's track nudged westward meaning the storm could spend more time over the superheated Gulf of Mexico and have more time to intensify during its collision course with the Florida coast.

The expanded threat comes hours after Gov. Ron DeSantis mobilized the National Guard and extended the state of emergency from 54 to 61 of Florida's 67 counties.

Here are the latest updates.

FAMU campus closes Sunday and Monday

FAMU will be closed from noon Sunday through Monday, as will the Viticulture Center and the Quincy Farm, according to a press release from the university.

The campus food pantry will be open until noon Sunday to facilitate students.

The FAMU Central Florida Pharmacy Practice Center in Tampa and the Northeast Florida Pharmacy Center's Jacksonville offices will be closed on Monday. The Brooksville Agricultural and Environmental Research Station will also be closed on Monday.

A decision on the re-opening of the main campus and satellite locations will be made depending on the impact of the inclement weather.

Leon County Schools closes, six campuses to be used as shelters

Leon County Schools will close on Monday, and six schools will be used as shelters.

For athletic practices scheduled for Monday afternoon, the district will make the decision after speaking with athletic directors on Monday morning, according to a post on social media.

Major flooding possible for Big Bend

With expected rainfall totals between 4 and 6 inches around Tallahassee, the Big Bend could experience major flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.

"With that much rain, river flooding looks increasingly likely during and after the storm," the NWS stated on social media.

A storm surge warning is now in effect from Indian Pass east to the Suwannee river. Franklin County's Indian Pass to the Aucilla River which borders Jefferson and Madison counties may have storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.

FSU closes Sunday and Monday

Florida State University's Tallahassee campus will close on Sunday and Monday, according to a social media post from the university.

The closure begins at 12 p.m. Sunday and will run until 11 p.m. on Monday. FSU expects to reopen on Aug. 6.

Tropical Storm Debby is born, expected to be a hurricane at landfall

In the 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center announced that the storm has cleared Cuba and has become Tropical Storm Debby with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The storm is expected to careen into the Big Bend packing as much as 75mph winds. Coastal Big Bend counties are under a Hurricane Warning and the threat of 74-110 mph winds. The Tallahassee area is under a Tropical Storm Warning and could see 58 to 73 mph winds.

"Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear," NHC forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. forecast. "Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core."

The risk of life-threatening storm surge is also growing. About 4 to 7 feet of storm surge is now forecast between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown.

Rain, rain go away?

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center has elevated the risk of excessive rainfall to a moderate level, meaning there is a 40% chance that rain will likely lead to flash flooding.

The region could see between 4 and 8 inches of rainfall spread across the Big Bend, with higher amounts locally.

"The latest rainfall forecast for TD4 has significant amounts of rainfall for parts of our area. Portions of the FL Big Bend and southern GA could possibly receive greater than 15 inches of rain thru Tues PM," the National Weather Service of Tallahassee tweeted. "This forecast is highly dependent on the track."

Emergency operations center activated at Level 1, hurricane watch issued for six counties, state mobilizes more resources

Hurricane watches have been issued for: Coastal Taylor, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Wakulla, Coastal Jefferson and Levy counties, according to a recent press release from the governor's office.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, and slow strengthening is expected today and tonight," the press release reads. "The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast."

The Florida Department of Emergency Management (FDEM) has activated the State Emergency Operations Center to a Level 1 and has deployed 170 pallets of water, 30 pallets of shelf-stable meals, seven pallets of tarps and 3,000 sandbags.

FDEM is also mobilizing four logistical staging areas across the state for food, water, tarps, shower trailers, pumps and flood protection devices.

Midwest Foodbank, Feeding Florida, Farm Share and Meet the Need are preparing to meet potential feeding needs, and the American Red Cross is mobilizing the Tallahassee and Jacksonville teams for shelter plans.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Mainland Monroe, Coastal Collier, Coastal Lee, Coastal Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Hernando, Citrus and Sumter counties.

• Tropical Storm Watch: the Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas (Coastal Monroe), Inland Lee, Inland Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Polk, Lake, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Inland Franklin, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Madison and Lafayette counties.

• Storm Surge Warning: Coastal Hernando, Citrus, Levy, Dixie and Taylor Counties.

• Storm Surge Watch: Coastal Lee and Charlotte counties, including Charlotte Harbor, and Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough (including Tampa Bay), Pinellas and Pasco counties.

Wakulla County sandbag locations

The Wakulla County Sheriff's Office will have sand bags available till 5 p.m. Saturday and on Sunday from 9 a.m. until 1 p.m.

"The projected path of the storm has continued to move westward increasing the likelihood for our area to feel the effects of this storm," the sheriff's office stated on Facebook.

"No matter what the strength of this storm our county is projected to receive a large amount of rain with this storm."

Wakulla's coast could experience 1 to 3 feet of storm surge and 58 to 73 mph winds.

Move electric vehicles to higher ground, Florida's CFO says

Electric vehicles (EVs), scooters with lithium-ion batteries or golf carts with batteries should be moved to higher ground if located in an area that could be flooded with salty-storm surge waters, said Chief Financial Officer and State Fire Marshal Jimmy Patronis.

The saltwater compromises those batteries and poses fire risks. If EV companies have the capability, we are encouraging them to proactively notify consumers of these risks, so in the event of an evacuation, those batteries don’t cause destruction that could have been avoided," Patronis said in a press release.

Alabama water rescue, firefighters head to Tallahassee

Firefighters from several cities in Alabama are headed to Tallahassee in response to the strengthening tropical depression that is set to hit Florida's gulf coast on Monday.

Fire departments from Vestavia Hills, Hoover, Calara and Mobile will assist with search and rescue operations.

“Vestavia Hills Fire Department always stands ready to help those in need,” said Vestavia Hills fire Chief Marvin Green, according to a WVTM13 article. “We are proud to have the available assets — both highly-trained personnel and specialized equipment — to quickly assist in an impactful way and work to keep everyone as safe as possible.”

Department of Health opens special needs shelters

The Florida Department of Health has prepared for special needs shelter operations to begin in areas of anticipated landfall, according to a press release.

If you know or care for an individual with a disability or a special need, such as a medical condition that requires assistance but not hospitalization, pre-register with the Florida Special Needs Shelter Registry at snr.flhealthresponse.com. You will need to log in with an existing account or create a new account.

The registry allows local emergency management officials to provide important information and quickly assist during an emergency.

If evacuating to a special needs shelter, DOH advises to bring the following:

• List of medications and dosage

• A 30-day supply of medications

• Vital medical equipment for those who may be electrically or oxygen dependent,

• Backup energy sources for essential medical equipment

• Any special dietary needs or food

• Personal information including:

  • Photo ID

  • Insurance card

  • List of emergency contacts

  • Your primary care provider’s contact information

For information, visit FloridaDisaster.org.

FEMA Disaster Recovery Center for May tornadoes temporarily closes

FEMA’s Disaster Recovery Center at the LeRoy Collins Leon County Library will be temporarily closed Sunday, and Monday. The center will reopen on Tuesday, 8 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Jefferson County closes schools, opens emergency evacuation center

Jefferson County Schools will close all sites Monday, according to a Facebook post.

The Jefferson County Emergency Evacuation Shelter will open Sunday at 12 p.m.. The shelter is at the Jefferson County K-12 School, 50 David Road in Monticello.

Evacuees heading to the shelter should bring personal items such as medications, water, any special dietary food needs and bedding.

Taylor County issues voluntary evacuation order for coastal and low-lying areas

The Taylor County Sheriff's Office issued a volunteer evacuation order for all coastal and low lying areas Saturday afternoon.

Taylor County Elementary School located at 1600 East Green Street will also open as a shelter starting at 4 p.m.

"Please bring only essential items due to limited space," the sheriff's office wrote. "Pets are allowed but must be in a crate."

The county was hard hit in last year's Hurricane Idalia.

Leon County declares a 'state of emergency' as power crews get ready for restoration effort

Ahead of what could be a low-end hurricane landfall, Leon County has declared its own "state of emergency" proclamation.

Such orders streamline the county response under Leon County Emergency Management Director Kevin Peters. It allows the county to expend funds, enter into contracts, and declare a curfew and evacuations if necessary.

In an emailed letter sent just before noon, county administrator Vince Long notified commissioners that the storm's track had shifted west "exposing Leon County to greater wind risks including tropical-storm-force winds."

"Due to the track's shift, we are now expecting three to eight inches of rain for Leon County based on the current forecast," Long wrote, adding that sustained tropical storm force winds of at least 39 mph could be felt locally late Sunday morning or Sunday afternoon.

He noted that the county has already distributed 2,250 sandbags. He also previewed local utilities' plans to restore power in the event that the storm downs trees and power lines.

"The City of Tallahassee and Talquin Electric have activated their emergency storm plans and have prepared additional staffing to expedite power restoration efforts," he wrote. "Both utilities have also activated mutual aid agreements to assist with power restoration efforts following the storm."

Storm menacing almost every stretch of Florida

Kimberly Miller, the weather expert at our sister paper the Palm Beach Post, is up with a story that captures the wider threat of the slowly strengthening storm.

"A slow-blooming tempest that stalked Florida this week is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby early Sunday and will continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend."

"Upgraded to Tropical Depression Four late Friday, the swirl of firing thunderstorms was forecast to make landfall in the Big Bend region of the state early Monday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds."

"The hurricane forecast cone of uncertainty has shifted some since Friday, with the landfall area stretching anywhere from Indian Pass southeast of Panama City to Yankeetown. Inland areas including Tallahassee, Gainesville, Jacksonville and Daytona Beach were also in the cone as the system passes through the state and into Georgia as a tropical storm. It is forecast to reach the Atlantic Ocean late Tuesday into early Wednesday."

“It might be strengthening all the way up until it makes landfall," AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said Friday. “If it rides the western portion of the cone, there is nothing to slow the strengthening other than it hitting land.”

"Much of the Gulf Coast and parts of coastal southeast Florida can expect rain totals of 6 to 10 inches this weekend through Thursday morning. This could cause local flash and urban flooding, including isolated river flooding. Isolated areas near Tampa could get as much as a foot of rain."

Read the full story here.

Storm will be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall, forecasters say

The tropical depression that could become a low-grade hurricane as it crashes into the Big Bend coastline appears to have begun its turn to the north, National Hurricane Center forecasters say in their 11 a.m. discussion of the storm.

They noted the depression had become "somewhat better organized this morning" but that "the circulation is still somewhat elongated" as it battles interaction with Cuba. It currently has sustained winds of about 35 mph.

"After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for intensification," a forecaster wrote. "Due to the lack of internal organization, the initial intensification is likely to be slow."

"However, a faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast."

It will ultimately make a turn to the northeast bringing it over the northern Gulf Coast of Florida in about 48 hours.

By way of impacts, forecasters say to be prepared for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, strong winds and "life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the west coast of Florida" up to the Aucilla River, where 3 to 5 feet of surge is possible.

Forecasters have also escalated the rain threat to "moderate flooding rain."

"The latest rainfall forecast has expanded the 4 to 6+ inch rainfall amounts as far west as a line from Alligator Point to Tifton Georgia. Local amounts of 10+ inches are possible," local forecasters wrote. "Several rivers in this same area are already running unseasonably high, including the Ochlockonee, Sopchoppy, and Withlacoochee. A Flood Watch may eventually be needed for Sunday and Monday given heavy rain from a tropical cyclone coming into areas that area already more vulnerable than usual to heavy rain."

City and county urge residents to be prepared

Ahead of the arrival of what is expected to be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Debby, the City of Tallahassee and Leon County are advising residents to be storm ready.

The city sent out a text message to its utility customers.

"Residents should take steps now while their is time to protect their households and property," the city text alert stated while promoting its online PREP guide, which includes a supplies checklist and preparedness tips.

You can also check out the 2024 Leon County Disaster Survival Guide here.

Sandbags aplenty at sites throughout the Big Bend

Governments and residents around the Big Bend are bracing and preparing for a possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane Debby landfall. Sandbag sites are open in counties in the strike zone.

"As we encourage every hurricane season, have your hurricane supplies and plan in place for your family, including pets," the Jefferson County sheriff's office wrote on Facebook. "The track is still uncertain, but we do expect a lot of rainfall throughout Florida."

See where you can find sandbags, by clicking this link.

Westward shift in track leads to questions and concerns about slowdown

Could what is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby miss its ride out of Florida?

Forecasters are intently watching the storm, which is crossing Cuba, for the more pronounced northward turn that will bring the storm into the Gulf.

The system is currently expected to shadow the peninsula on its way to landfall in the Big Bend Monday morning. A trough would then carry it out of the state and into Georgia then South Carolina or back into the Atlantic, where it could regain strength.

"After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia," forecasters wrote in the 5 a.m. discussion. "Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead of an upper trough or get left behind and meander over the southeastern U.S. or near the coast."

That dynamic makes the timing of the turn into the Gulf all the more important. If the storm continues further west, it could miss the trough and "there is a chance it could slow down," said Kristian Oliver, a National Weather Service Tallahassee forecaster.

Complicating matters, the storm hasn't completely formed yet, "which leaves it open to what exactly is going to steer this thing," Oliver said.

Regardless of a possible stall that could exacerbate impacts, Oliver said in about 36 hours, the region is likely to be facing a high-end tropical storm or low-end Category 1 hurricane.

"The difference between the two is very minor," he said, adding that residents should be prepared for a category higher. "With these things intensity can fluctuate quickly."

Possible impacts from what is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby

It's still too early to see the full threat a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Debby might pose, but the National Weather Service's online threat breakdown offers an early glimpse at what the area could endure when the storm nears landfall early Monday morning.

Tallahassee and Leon County, Florida's capital county, are under a Tropical Storm Watch, and could see the potential for 39 to 57 mph winds. Areas closer to the coast like Wakulla, Jefferson and Taylor counties could see 58 to 73 mph winds. Such winds can cause damage to roofing and siding, topple trees and make roads impassible.

"Complete outdoor preparations by Sun morning," forecasters with NWS Tallahassee wrote. "Deteriorating conditions Sun afternoon."

There is also the potential for "moderate to flooding rain." With heavier rains expected near the coast, the region could see between 3 to 6 inches of rain.

While about 1 to 3 feet of storm surge is currently forecast for coastal Franklin, Wakulla and Jefferson counties, coastal areas further east could see flooding between 3 to 5 feet above ground. Coastal Taylor County, which was dealt a direct hit in 2023 from Hurricane Idalia, all the way to Lee County in South Florida could see such a surge. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Aucilla River all the way to Bonita Harbor in South Florida.

Storm could impact communities still in recovery

The storm's final landfall destination could impact north Florida communities still recovering from Hurricane Idalia, which became the heaviest U.S. blow of the 2023 hurricane season.

Tallahassee, which was bracing for a direct hit from Hurricane Idalia, managed to escape widespread destruction as the hurricane wobbled east before slamming into the Taylor County coast.

Idalia, which briefly became a major Category 4 hurricane, made landfall around 7:45 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, near Keaton Beach, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It marked the first hit from a major hurricane to the Apalachee Bay coastline since weather record-keeping began in 1851.

While Tallahassee dodged Idalia, a wide swatch of Florida's capital city is still rebuilding after a rare May tornado outbreak killed two people, shredded the power grid and toppled trees onto homes. The Florida Emergency Management Agency remains on the ground in Tallahassee with an Aug. 19 deadline for homeowners and residents to seek assistance.

Track's shift west ups chances that region could see a hurricane

The westward shift ratchets up the odds that the storm could ultimately become a low-end hurricane. WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, who does regular hurricane season forecasts for the USA TODAY NETWORK, warned Friday afternoon that such a scenario remained on the table.

"Two days over the Gulf is enough to cause advanced mischief, and North Florida should be on alert at this point for a hurricane threat early next week," Truchelut warned. "I’m not saying a hurricane will hit North Florida, but a farther west track with more strengthening is well within the realm of the possible."

The storm is expected to cross Cuba and rake the Florida peninsula as it heads north toward an expected landfall along the Nature Coast or Big Bend. Tallahassee, Florida's capital city, remains well within the cone of what would be Florida's first storm strike of a widely expected violent 2024 hurricane season.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by tonight, "with additional strengthening expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear environment."

"The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region," a forecaster wrote in the 5 a.m. discussion. While the latest forecast "does not explicitly show the cyclone becoming a hurricane," the NHC noted that additional strengthening could occur as the storm nears landfall.

Already forecasters have warned that coastal communities should be prepared for "life-threatening inundation from storm surge." Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are also likely. The storm could drench the state with up to a foot of rain in some areas, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Hurricane Warning: Tropical Storm Debby tracks toward North Florida