Hurricane season 2024: NOAA forecast for named storms 'highest ever.' Will NC see another Matthew?

Iris Seaton, Asheville Citizen Times

A May 23 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doubled down on previous predictions of destructive hurricanes in 2024 with less than a week from the beginning of hurricane season.

With up to 25 named storms possible including four to seven major hurricanes, there is a forecast 85% chance of an above-average year. NOAA Director Rick Spinrad said at a May 23 news conference that the season was shaping up to be "extraordinary."

Spinrad also said that this year's May outlook is the most intense ever predicted by the NOAA.

"Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook," he said.

With Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas facing heightened risk from the intensity of this year's hurricanes, here's what to know from the NOAA.

More: 2024 hurricane season outlook worsens for North Carolina: La Niña is on its way

How many hurricanes are predicted in 2024?

NOAA expects the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be active.
NOAA expects the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be active.

The most recent NOAA forecast said that forecasters reported 70% confidence in the following numbers for this year:

  • A range of 17-25 total named storms. Storms with winds of 39 mph or higher receive names.

  • 8-13 storms expected to become hurricanes - meaning winds of 74 mph or higher.

  • 4-7 major hurricanes - Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.

While it's impossible to say at this point exactly what the season holds for the N.C. coast, AccuWeather said that Hurricane Matthew, the Category 5 hurricane that was the most powerful storm of the 2016 season, is an "analog" for this year. Matthew took place during La Niña, similar to what is predicted to happen this year.

The National Weather Service website says that Matthew was directly responsible for 25 deaths in N.C. plus four in S.C., all but one of which were caused by the massive flooding the states saw. Damage in the U.S. was estimated by the National Center for Environmental Information at $10.3 billion, and the name "Matthew" was retired from the list of Atlantic hurricane names after the destruction it wreaked across the Caribbean islands and the Southeastern United States.

More: How many tornadoes have there been in Asheville, Buncombe? What to know about mountain twisters.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1. The season is active through Nov. 30.

Why is the 2024 hurricane season predicted to be bad?

Multiple factors are contributing to the prediction of an "explosive" hurricane season. Mentioned in the May 23 report were waters in the Atlantic Ocean reaching near-record temperatures, reduced Atlantic trade winds, less wind shear and development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.

Forecasters from the NOAA gave up to an 85% chance that La Niña will form by fall and, more immediately, up to a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by the summer months, July-September.

More: Tornado Alley may be expanding; Here's why Southern states are at risk

Atlantic hurricane names 2024

2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names
2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names

Storm names are issued in alphabetical order, with each storm that occurs receiving the next name on the list. There are no names beginning with Q, U, X, Y or Z due to a lack of usable names.

The list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is:

  • Alberto

  • Beryl

  • Chris

  • Debby

  • Ernesto

  • Francine

  • Gordon

  • Helene

  • Isaac

  • Joyce

  • Kirk

  • Leslie

  • Milton

  • Nadine

  • Oscar

  • Patty

  • Rafael

  • Sara

  • Tony

  • Valerie

  • William

If all 21 names are used, supplemental names will be used. Here is the list of 21 supplemental hurricane names from the World Meteorological Organization:

  • Adria

  • Braylen

  • Caridad

  • Deshawn

  • Emery

  • Foster

  • Gemma

  • Heath

  • Isla

  • Jacobus

  • Kenzie

  • Lucio

  • Makayla

  • Nolan

  • Orlanda

  • Pax

  • Ronin

  • Sophie

  • Tayshaun

  • Viviana

  • Will

Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Hurricane season 2024: NOAA forecasts up to 25 named Atlantic storms

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