Hurricane forecast for Cape Cod: 'Extremely active' 2024 season looms

Cape Cod juts into the Atlantic Ocean like a boxer's chin waiting for a weather punch. The biggest punches come from hurricanes, the heavyweight champs of destruction. These powerful storms can place lives in jeopardy, knock out power and rip huge hunks out of our coastline.

And we may be in for a doozy of a hurricane season this year. Colorado State University's research group for Tropical Weather & Climate Research recently released its 2024 extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability, and the outlook might be a little nerve-wracking for Cape Codders.

According to the forecast: "We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active," adding that "We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

Why is an 'extremely active' hurricane season predicted?

Here is Colorado State University's reasoning for the extremely active extended range hurricane forecast:

"Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification."

What does the extended range forecast say about storm impact probabilities?

According to Colorado State University, "Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall."

Included with the forecast is a chart that shows tropical cyclone impact probabilities for 2024 as compared to 1991-2020 average probabilities. The chart shows an increased probability of named storm impacts in 2024 for Massachusetts, including Cape Cod. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The 2024 extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity calls for 23 named storms, which includes tropical storms and hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average is 14.4). The forecast also calls for 11 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average is 7.2).

According to the forecast, there is a 27% probability of named storm impact in Barnstable County in 2024 (the 1991-2020 average probability is 17%).

When was the last hurricane to make landfall in Massachusetts?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, the last hurricane to make landfall in the state was Hurricane Bob in 1991. "Bob crossed Rhode Island and Massachusetts, with the center moving between Boston and Scituate. It then moved over Massachusetts Bay," according to NOAA.

The hurricane walloped Cape Cod. Here are some of Bob's impacts, excerpted from a National Weather Service account:

"Coastal communities bore the brunt of the storm, with sustained winds between 75 to 100 mph. Peak wind gusts to 125 mph were recorded on Cape Cod in the towns of Brewster and North Truro...Over 60 percent of the residents across southeast Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts lost power...(Hurricane Bob) drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay....Some south facing beach locations on Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket islands lost up to 50 feet of beach to erosion."

According to the state Office of Coastal Zone Management, "Overall, New England experienced $680 million in damage, $39 million in Massachusetts alone" from Hurricane Bob.

When will Colorado State University update its 2024 extended range forecast?

An updated hurricane forecast is scheduled to be released on June 11. And it's always a good time for Cape Codders to prepare for the next big storm. According to Colorado State University, "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

Eric Williams, when not solving Curious Cape Cod mysteries, writes about a variety of ways to enjoy the Cape, the weather, wildlife and other subjects. Contact him at ewilliams@capecodonline.com. Follow him on X: @capecast.

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This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Cape Cod 2024 hurricane forecast: Increased chance for storm impacts