How hot will it get in Kansas City this summer? What weather forecast models predict

Climate models created by the National Weather Service predict a rainy spring followed by a hot summer in the Kansas City metro area.

The agency’s Climate Prediction Center uses current weather data to forecast temperature and precipitation across the country, Kansas City based meteorologist Chad Schafer told The Star.

“It’s using data from currently and recently to go out and predict what could happen in the next one to three months or longer,” he said. “The statistical output from that would indicate whether we’d be above normal, below normal or near normal temperature and precipitation.”

Here’s a closer look at what these weather models say Kansas Citians can expect in the coming months.

Will it be a wet May in Kansas City?

Climate Prediction Center maps show a 33-40% chance of above-average precipitation in much of the southeastern U.S. and central Midwest this May, including the Kansas City area.

May is typically the rainiest month of the year in the Kansas City area, according to historical data from 1991 through 2020. The metro sees an average of 5.32 inches of rain — and forecasts suggest it may see more than that this year.

May is expected to be hotter than average in the eastern U.S., southeast and Texas — but Kansas City’s temperatures aren’t leaning hotter or cooler than normal during that month.

Based on weather data from 1991 through 2020, the average high temperature for May is around 75°F and the average low temperature is 54.3°F. The average median temperature in that time frame is 64.6°F.

What will the weather be in KC area this summer?

Forecast maps for May, June and July show that most of the country, including Kansas City, is on track to have a hotter than usual summer compared to data collected over the last 30 years.

“Already in the past year, globally, the average temperatures have been far above what we have seen in the past 30 years,” Shafer told The Star, adding that this summer’s temperature predictions are being driven in part by global warming.

“It is much more frequent that you see a chart (for) the next three months where most of the U.S. is either equal chances or slightly to moderately above average in terms of the forecast for temperature.”

Most of the U.S., including Kansas City, isn’t leaning towards getting more or less rain than normal over the next three months.

“That’s pretty common,” Shafer said. “It is considerably more challenging to pinpoint areas where we have higher confidence that above normal or below normal precipitation will occur.”

That’s because, while temperature fluctuations can be predicted using global trends, rain and snow are more localized and harder to predict many months in advance.

Do you have more questions about weather or climate in Kansas City? Ask the Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.