History? Not quite. Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield not only No. 1 picks quit on too early
This Sunday, two former No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft will meet at Ford Field, fresh off career-defining wins.
They just won't be playing for the teams who drafted them.
Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield — both cast off in dramatic fashion by the franchises who once viewed them as the saviors — just led their new teams to playoff wins. Goff, the Detroit Lions QB, just so happened to do it against the team that gave up on him, and led the team to its first playoff win in 32 years.
Typically believed that No. 1 overall quarterbacks fall into two categories: busts or franchise-changers. But the reality is that quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall finding redemption with a new team is not an unheard of phenomenon, even though Mayfield and Goff are especially unique cases.
Since 2000, there have been 17 quarterbacks drafted with the No. 1 overall pick, including four since 2019. So if we throw out Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young since it's too early to say and they're all still on their first team, the number of QBs is 13.
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Out of those 13 quarterbacks taken first overall this century, five of them, or 38%, have won a playoff game with a different team than the one who drafted them, including Mayfield and Goff.
The odd part is they all follow very similar career arcs. Here's a look at the five QBs to pull off this feat:
Carson Palmer (Playoff record: 1-3)
Palmer, drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals with the first overall pick in 2003, sat out his first year behind yet-to-be Lion Jon Kitna and eventually got the job in his second year. Palmer had his breakout year in his third season, leading the Bengals to an 11-5 record, throwing for 3,836 yards, leading the NFL in touchdowns and completion percentage, and finishing fifth in the MVP vote. It appeared to be the start of something special, but Palmer would have just one more winning season with the Bengals and was eventually traded to the Oakland Raiders, making way for Andy Dalton in Cincinnati.
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Things didn't go great for Palmer in Oakland either, winning just eight of the 24 games that he started, but he found a home in Arizona with Bruce Arians in 2013. In his first season there, he went 10-6 but missed the playoffs, then was 6-0 in 2014 before suffering a torn ACL. He finally got the ultimate redemption in 2015, leading the Cardinals to a 13-3 record and finishing second in the MVP race. Arizona had a first-round bye and beat the Green Bay Packers, 26-20, in the divisional round before falling to Cam Newton (another No. 1 overall pick) and the Carolina Panthers in the NFC championship game. It's hard to argue that wasn't the peak of his career, as Palmer struggled to stay healthy for his final two years with the Cardinals before retiring.
Alex Smith (Playoff record: 2-5)
Smith, who like Goff and Mayfield, was viewed as a bust early in his career with the San Francisco 49ers. He was utterly unremarkable in his first six seasons, which included some injury issues like a shoulder problem that forced him to miss an entire year. That was until Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011 and got the 49ers back on track. San Fran went 13-3 in that first season under Harbaugh and Smith threw for 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions while starting every game. Smith began the 2012 season as the starter but was replaced by Colin Kaepernick, who took the league by storm after another Smith injury.
The 49ers stuck with Kaepernick after their run to the Super Bowl, sending Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs. There, Smith was 50-26 in five years before again being replaced by a young QB with a huge arm, Patrick Mahomes. Smith was 1-1 with the 49ers in the postseason and 1-4 with the Chiefs before going to Washington, where he suffered a career-altering leg injury. He played in just 18 games there.
Matthew Stafford (Playoff record: 4-4)
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Ever heard of this guy?
Stafford's career path is much different than all the other QBs in this group because of how productive he was in his first stop. He spent 12 seasons with the Lions, rewriting the franchise's passing records. He had almost 30,000 more passing yards with the Lions than Bobby Layne, who is second on the list. But the Lion—s never were able to consistently put a good team around him. The run came to an unceremonious end when he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams for multiple picks and – Goff.
Though admittedly not exactly a bust, Stafford did find vindication in L..A. In his first year with the Rams, Stafford won four straight playoff games, including beating fellow former No. 1 pick Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the Super Bowl. However, it's the Lions and Goff who have gotten the most recent laugh, as the Rams came to Ford Field last Sunday and were beaten, 24-23, on the same field Stafford used to call home.
Jared Goff (Playoff record: 4-3)
Goff was a highly-touted passer out of Cal-Berkeley, but ended up in a bad situation in his rookie year, playing for a middling Rams team in the midst of a move and with Jeff Fisher, a defensive coach, at the helm. The results were disastrous. Goff had just five touchdowns and 12 turnovers in seven games.
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In came offensive guru Sean McVay, then just 31 years old. The results were immediate and impressive. Goff looked like a new man, throwing for 28 touchdowns while keeping the turnovers down (seven interceptions). By his third year, Goff was in the Super Bowl, but that's when things started to trend down. The Goff-led offense did not reach the end zone against the Patriots and Goff never looked the same after. With the Lions rebuilding and taking offers on Stafford, the Rams pounced, swapping QBs and paying a premium to do so.
Year 1 in Detroit was a mess for Goff as the team tried to reboot. Many thought Goff was merely keeping the seat warm for a younger quarterback. But the Lions kept believing in Goff and his talent, even when the team got off to a 1-6 start in 2022. Since the loss to Miami on Oct. 30, 2022, which dropped them to 1-6, Goff has thrown for 7,386 yards, 48 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, while posting a 21-7 record and recording the first Lions playoff win since the 1991 season.
Goff has just one year left on the contract he signed with the Rams. Once thought to be an albatross, the deal seems like a bargain. What the distant future holds for Goff is unknown, but it's hard to imagine the Lions going in a different direction anytime soon.
Baker Mayfield (Playoff record: 2-1)
Like many of the quarterbacks on this list, Mayfield was not drafted into a great situation. The season before he arrived in Cleveland, the Browns were 0-16 and widely viewed as the worst organization in the NFL. In his rookie year, Tyrod Taylor was named the starting quarterback, which left fans clamoring for the Heisman Trophy winner. He finally entered in Week 3 against the New York Jets and led the team to a 21-17 win and had the job the rest of the season. Mayfield finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, but from there it got complicated.
His second season was a disaster, completely derailed by Cleveland's Freddie Kitchens experiment, who was fired after just one season as the head coach. Then the Browns hired Kevin Stefanski, who led the team to an 11-5 record in his first year, and Mayfield led the Browns to a wild card round victory in Pittsburgh. But things went downhill from there. Between injuries and poor play, the Browns eventually decided they were done with Mayfield, traded for Deshaun Watson and sent Mayfield to Carolina.
Mayfield was again underwhelming and was released after going just 1-5 in games he started in the 2021 season. He then signed midseason with the Rams, who were without Stafford due to injury. Mayfield actually played just a few days after signing and somehow beat the Las Vegas Raiders in a Thursday night game. It was the only win of his five-game tenure.
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So when Mayfield landed with the Buccaneers this past offseason, no one knew what to expect. But Mayfield and Tampa Bay fought through a four-game skid and eventually won the NFC South. He passed for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdown passes this season, both career-highs. And when the Bucs matched up with an ice-cold Eagles team, he was more than ready to stick the dagger in their hearts and advance in the playoffs.
The moral of the story: the Bucs and Lions both bet on talent. And when talented people get opportunities, you just never know what the results may be.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Jared Goff vs. Baker Mayfield matchup of No. 1 picks who teams quit on
