History of college football playoffs working against TCU in semifinal versus Michigan
The stats are so terrible, and unbelievable, that the people who should know can’t even believe them.
In the history of the playoff era in college football, there have been 16 semifinal games. How many have been decided by double digits?
“Four,” Michigan defensive back Keshaun Harris said.
“My guess is six,” Michigan wide receiver Ronnie Bell answered.
“What was the first playoff, Ohio State and Alabama?” Michigan receiver Darrius Clemons said.
Impressive (said in Darth Vader voice).
“Then it was Oregon and Florida State,” Clemons said.
Most impressive (said in Darth Vader voice).
“Michigan and Georgia last year was double digits,” Clemons said as he continued to try to recount all of the playoff games. “So I’d say nine of them were double digit games.”
Close.
Thirteen.
Since the college football reluctantly adopted a “playoff” format in 2015, the games themselves are often more appropriate for a Motor City Bowl than a Rose Bowl, or any game featuring the top four teams in the country.
What should be great instead tastes like stale pizza with a chaser of warm beer.
Thirteen of the 16 playoff games have been decided by double digits. Of the 24 playoff games overall, 18 are double digit spreads.
“Really?” Clemons.
Really.
TCU is a heavy underdog against Michigan, and while its mission is to win the Fiesta Bowl, at this point we as fans and observers will just take a close game.
A close game is a TCU win.
Why TCU is such a heavy underdog against Michigan
TCU’s resume in 2022 says that the Fiesta Bowl should be decided late in the fourth quarter against Michigan, with a strong chance of overtime.
Most people who follow college football would call that “an upset.” That perception exists for one reason.
“It’s all about the brand that your school puts out there,” said TCU tight end Jared Wiley, who played his first three years at Texas before transferring to TCU.
“Obviously TCU is a small private school, and I think all year we haven’t gotten the benefit of the doubt from anybody. We’ve kept to our opinion, and our opinion is we can get it done.”
He is unavoidably right.
When TCU played at No. 18 Texas on Nov. 12, the Horned Frogs were ranked No. 4, and 7-point underdogs.
TCU won 17-10, and the game wasn’t close.
TCU is a 7.5-point underdog against Michigan.
Blowouts in the college football playoffs
The players themselves sound like they know why the biggest of the bowl games are so often blowouts.
“The other team wants it more and isn’t out there for fun and giggles and treating it like a vacation,” TCU receiver Derius Davis said “They really pamper you out here. Some of these teams just (see) a bowl game as a trip, or vacation.
“This is a playoff game. We’re taking it serious.”
Wiley was more succinct.
“You’re taking a bunch of 20-year olds and putting them in the big city and they like to have fun instead of locking in to the game,” Wiley said. “There are a lot of distractions when you do something like this and I think that plays a really big role.”
In the Music City Bowl, this explanation fits. The same for most bowl games.
You would think that for a national semifinal, or title game, the players are engaged.
With the exception of the 2018 Rose Bowl when Georgia defeated Oklahoma in overtime, Alabama’s win over Georgia in the title game that season, and Clemson’s win over Alabama in the 2017 national title game, the playoffs have exposed the reality that parity has limits.
College football coaches routinely sell the idea that the sport is loaded with parity; that anyone can beat anyone.
The results say the parity exists from teams ranked No. 3 through No. 30. The results say there is little parity at the top.
That has been a college football reality for decades. Changing it isn’t quite impossible. It only feels like it.
TCU is tasked to beat Michigan, and everything about the game says it should be close.
As college football fans who want the playoffs to succeed, we would all revel in something less than double digits.
