This Hilton Head community could be a ‘key area’ in deciding mayoral runoff. Here’s why

(EDITOR’S NOTE: This story has been updated to correct Alan Perry’s residency in Hilton Head Plantation.)

At times, Monday night’s final Hilton Head mayoral forum felt like a Hilton Head Plantation neighborhood meeting.

Some in attendance lived close enough to walk to the venue. Neighbors made small talk before the event began. Mention of a locally rumored pickleball court sparked laughter across the crowd.

Despite being open to the general public, about 90% of the forum’s attendees were residents of Hilton Head Plantation, according to Kay Roshnow, president of the local chapter of the League of Women Voters. Runoff candidates JoAnn Orischak and Alan Perry answered several questions that were catered specifically to the gated community’s issues.

Winning over Monday night’s crowd of Hilton Head Plantation residents might just have been a make-or-break moment for both campaigns. Citing local controversies and powerful demographics, voters and candidates alike have identified the gated community as a crucial voting bloc for Tuesday’s mayoral runoff election.

“Hilton Head Plantation is a key area, without a doubt,” Perry told The Island Packet and Beaufort Gazette after the event. “This forum could be a deal-maker.”

How did we get here?

Under South Carolina law, candidates must get 50% of the vote to be declared a winner. Neither Orischak nor Perry did that, sending the election to a Nov. 22 runoff vote.

Orischak received 6,913 votes across all Hilton Head precincts, or 44.18% of the vote, according to official election results from scvotes.gov. Perry garnered 6,523 votes, or 41.39%.

Some attribute the close race to a third candidate, Thomas Cleary, who got 1,338 votes, or 8.49%, even though he dropped out of the race on Oct. 2 — too late to remove his name from the ballot.

A fourth candidate, Michael Santomauro, received 863 votes, or 5.48%. There were even 74 votes cast for write-in candidates.

All of that combined to make it a tight outcome for the two leading candidates, without much time to sway new voters.

Orischak said after the Nov. 8 general election she would study Hilton Head’s precincts to further prepare in advance of the runoff vote.

“We will be prepared to proceed with the runoff election,” Perry echoed.

Can one neighborhood predict the election?

Hilton Head Plantation is home to about 10,000 residents, making up about a fourth of the island’s permanent population, according to Peter Kristian, the gated community’s general manager and unsuccessful candidate for the Beaufort County School Board in the last election.

And because the neighborhood forbids short-term rentals, the area likely accounts for the majority of year-round residents on the island.

Results from past mayoral races seem to suggest that candidates who triumph in Hilton Head Plantation are likely to win the election overall.

Drew Laughlin and John McCann, the winning candidates from 2010 and 2018’s races, respectively, both won seven of the community’s eight precincts. And before 2014’s runoff, the general election’s top two candidates — David Bennett and Drew Laughlin — split the neighborhood’s vote down the middle.

Once again, Hilton Head Plantation seems poised to be a battleground in Tuesday’s mayoral runoff. Orischak saw a slight edge in the community during the general election, securing a majority in five precincts, while Perry won three.

The neighborhood also maintains a consistently high voter turnout. Although Beaufort County’s turnout decreased from 58.66% in 2018 to 52.1% in 2022, Hilton Head Plantation voters were consistent at the polls, with seven of the community’s eight precincts beating the county’s average for turnout. In 2022’s general election, Hilton Head Plantation accounted for about 4,500 of the 15,761 total ballots collected on the island — nearly 30% of the vote.

Kristian said Hilton Head Plantation voters are “community-minded,” which drives their engagement in local politics. He cited the nearly 250 plantation residents at the final mayoral forum event, which he claimed was the most widely attended forum of the race.

“It shows that the people here do care,” Kristian said. “Not only do they care — they participate in local government.”

Orischak agreed, but said campaigning within the neighborhood had been difficult. Because of the gated community’s strict entry guidelines, she said her team wasn’t able to get past the gates until after Election Day.

“Better late than never,” Orischak added after the event. “I’m glad (Hilton Head Plantation) conducted this [forum]. We’ll see if it made a difference.”

Orischak does not live in Hilton Head Plantation. Perry has been a resident of the neighborhood for about eight years, he said.

While the community isn’t a monolith, Kristian says residents of Hilton Head Plantation are especially passionate about certain issues, such as the retention of left-turn lanes in the U.S. 278 bridges plan and the completion of a long-rumored local pickleball complex.

Legal battle stirs local controversy

Numbers aside, a recent legal controversy has made Hilton Head Plantation a focal point of the mayoral race.

Just a week before the general election, Orischak filed a libel lawsuit against Hilton Head Plantation general manager Kristian and the Hilton Head Plantation Property Owners’ Association. In the suit, Orischak claimed that Kristian had done “reputational damage” to her campaign by sending a mass email to plantation residents alerting them that a campaign mailer may have been distributed without following property postal procedures. The email did not mention Orischak by name.

The USPS distributed about 4,000 campaign mailers through the “Every Door Direct Mail” system, but due to an oversight at the Post Office, the materials were inspected and distributed despite lacking the required label indicating that postage had been paid. Post Office officials later took blame for the oversight and said the postage was properly paid.

Although the lawsuit is pending, the controversy has changed the shape of the race — and changed the minds of many plantation voters in the campaign’s crucial final days.

“Very irritating that someone would be suing over this,” one resident said in an online comment. “It makes you change your mind just like that.”

But other Hilton Head Plantation residents stand with Orischak. One user argued the candidate is “completely justified in seeking a legal remedy for damage to her reputation.”

“And Mr. Kristian needs to take full responsibility for sending out an email en masse before investigating or getting the facts,” another commenter added.

How can I vote in the runoff election?

All Hilton Head precincts will be open for the Nov. 22 runoff from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Tuesday, and all town residents who were registered to vote at least 30 days before the Nov. 8 election will be eligible to vote in the runoff.

Those who requested an absentee ballot for the Nov. 8 general election and checked a box that they also want to receive a ballot in case of a runoff will automatically be sent one, town officials said in a news release. Only the voters who requested absentee ballots during the general election will receive them for the runoff.

To count, absentee ballots must be received by the election office by 7 p.m. on Tuesday.

Early voting was available at two precincts on the island beginning Wednesday and ended Friday.