High winds, heat to brew up elevated fire risk for the Southwest

All the necessary ingredients are present to brew an elevated fire risk across the Southwest this week after a vividly memorable and record-breaking wildfire season last year.

Residents are gearing up for yet another bad fire season. Unfortunately, the puzzle pieces are all already in place, from heat to high winds to dryness, causing widespread red-flag warnings to go into effect sooner rather than later.

Over the past weekend, the Storm Prediction Center labeled two "critical" fire risk areas on Saturday inside of larger "elevated" fire risk areas in the Southwest.

Fires are already active in some areas, such as the Copper Canyon Fire, which forced portions of US Highway 60 to close on Friday. The Wildlife Fire also impacted the Sacramento, California, area, but is thankfully now 100% contained.

Critical fire risk ran through the end of the weekend for the Sacramento Valley, according to the SPC, and outdoor burning in any of the affected areas was not recommended.

"With persistent dryness, low humidity and breezy conditions, the risk for wildfire start and spread is elevated across parts of the West," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert.

One important element involved in wildfire risk is the moisture in the air, or lack thereof. In several cities across the Southwest, humidity has been dropping dangerously low. On Friday and Saturday, Phoenix and Las Vegas both reported relative humidity levels below 10%, and forecasters believe humidity levels will continue to decrease into the week.

"Humidity levels will be so low that some locations could experience amounts as extreme as less than five percent," Gilbert said.

Not only is the air itself dry, but rain has also held back in this region for several months. Areas under stress of drought feature dry vegetation that can catch fire much easier than hydrated plants.

"The entirety of California's San Joaquin Valley is in the midst of extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor," said Gilbert.

Fresno, California, has received less than 2 inches of rainfall since the beginning of February, which is only 34% of its normal precipitation in that time. Modesto, California, has also only received 30% of normal rainfall since early February. Over 70% of the entire state of California is considered to be in extreme drought.

"Elsewhere, portions of New Mexico and Arizona continue to experience exceptional drought conditions," Gilbert added.

Albuquerque, New Mexico, totals about an inch of rain since Feb. 1, which would put it just above 55% of normal precipitation. Phoenix has recorded even less than an inch since then, with 17% of normal rainfall.

"The more severe the level of drought, the more likely any fuels like grass or shrubs are to behave like kindling in a fire situation," said Gilbert.

Heat is also expected to exacerbate the drought across the West this week. Phoenix's temperatures have been above average since last Tuesday, and the city hit its first 100 F temperature of the year on Wednesday, then hit it again on Thursday. High temperatures there are not forecast to fall below average for at least a week.

The weekend was warm in the Southwest, but not outrageously so, and temperatures hovered just above normal.

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Dry and warm conditions can cause wildfires to start, but it is the breezy conditions that accentuate and spread the flames.

Strong north winds began to sweep across Northern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico on Friday and Saturday.

Red flag warnings were out for Northern California along the west side of the Sacramento Valley and through canyons and gaps. Southern California, including the Kern County Mountain and desert areas, had high wind gusts.

Some of the gustier areas of the Albuquerque region included the Central Highlands, Estancia Valley and Curry County.

Winds in Sacramento gusted to 30 mph on Saturday, while winds in Albuquerque gusted to 40 mph.

As the week continues, dry conditions and high winds are also expected to continue, while heat starts to build excessively in the Southwest.

"With a bulk of the moisture at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere forecast to remain removed from the Desert Southwest, dry conditions will be the norm for the region at least early this upcoming week," Gilbert said.

"Strong winds are likely to continue across New Mexico and Arizona Monday, where the fire danger will remain high," Pastelok said.

As a storm system moves away from Colorado and Wyoming early this week, a dome of high pressure will build across the West," said Pastelok. This will send temperatures soaring.

Phoenix will get another chance to hit 100 again on Thursday, as it is forecast to reach 101 F. Albuquerque can also head into the 80s toward the end of this week.

"It will be back in the 90s in the Central Valley of California Tuesday through Friday, some places may reach 100," Pastelok said. The 100-degree Fahrenheit heat is most likely in the deserts.

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