High school basketball playoffs: Predictions for every region as the Boys’ Sweet 16 nears

The Kentucky high school boys’ basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for the 2022-23 UK Healthcare Boys’ Sweet 16 next month in Rupp Arena.

Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All of last week’s district finalists made their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Boys’ Sweet 16.

We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state. As always, some of my predictions will be accurate. Last season, I picked just eight of 16 regions correctly but had 15 of 16 champs listed as either a favorite or spoiler, only whiffing completely on North Oldham in the 8th.

11th Region

Favorite: Lexington Catholic (30-2) has been ranked as high as No. 1 during the season by the Dave Cantrall ratings and was No. 2 in the final media poll. Reece Potter, a 7-foot senior center signed with Miami (Ohio), leads the team with 18 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, but the Knights will also need big games from point guard Tyler Doyle (10.0 points) and Hudson Sparks (12.6) to turn their “favorite” status into “champion.” The Knights suffered shocking first-round upsets as one of the favorites each of the last two years and haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 2015. LexCath has beaten top challengers Madison Central and Great Crossing this season, but hasn’t seen Frederick Douglass.

Spoilers: Ranked No. 7 in the final media poll, Great Crossing (27-5) features a remarkable sophomore class that includes Malachi Moreno, a 6-foot-11 four-star center recruited by the likes of Purdue, who averages 15.2 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. And he’s a block waiting to happen in the paint. Guards Vince Dawson (15.5 points) and Junius Burrell (11.8) can also put up big numbers. Frederick Douglass (28-2) gradually climbed its way to No. 8 this season led by four double-figure scorers that include senior point guard Kai Simpson (17.0 points), who is aiming to play in the Broncos’ third straight region finals. Madison Central (18-14) is the only team that has beaten No. 1 Warren Central this season. Don’t let the 14 losses fool you, Jaylen Davis (21.6 points) and company can hand out a whoopin’.

@HLpreps pick: Frederick Douglass.

1st Region

Favorite: McCracken County (26-5) was the overwhelming pick of the state’s media members last week and has region player of the year Jack McCune (18.3 points). The Mustangs have three losses in February, however, including a 44-41 defeat to defending region champion Murray on Feb. 11..

Spoilers: Murray (21-8) has played most of this season without standout senior Grant Whitaker, a Bellarmine commit who helped lead the Tigers to a region title and the Sweet 16 quarterfinals last season. He returned from a wrist injury to his shooting hand on Jan. 26. The Tigers lost his first game back in the All “A” Classic to eventual Classic champion Evangel Christian. They have not lost since. Marshall County (20-10) has beaten McCracken and played Murray close in the district finals.

@HLpreps pick: Murray.

2nd Region

Favorite: Lyon County (27-5) got upset in the All “A” Classic regional by University Heights and will be looking to redeem itself with a second straight trip to the big tournament. You might already know junior guard Travis Perry is second on the state’s all-time scoring list. You probably don’t know he’s only 126 points from surpassing “King” Kelly Coleman’s record of 4,337 career points. His 32.4 points per game average puts that mark within reach this year if the Lyons make it to Rupp Arena.

Spoilers: Henderson County (21-8) and Madisonville (22-9) each have a co-region player of the year. The Colonels’ Gerard Thomas averages 18.1 points per game. The Maroons’ TaMarcus Eaves scores 19.8 points per game. Henderson hasn’t faced Lyon this season. Madisonville lost to the Lyons 75-58 on Feb. 7.

@HLpreps pick: Lyon County.

3rd Region

Favorite: It’s hard to say. Both Ohio County (23-8) and Owensboro Catholic (26-5) lost their district championships last week to teams they had throttled earlier in the season, putting this region squarely up for grabs. Elijah Decker leads Ohio County with 17.4 points per game. Owensboro Catholic is led by Mr. Basketball candidate Brian Griffith’s 21 points per game.

Spoiler: Muhlenberg County (8-22), the two-time defending region champion, stunned Ohio County 60-58 in the 10th District championship. Ohio had routed Muhlenberg twice this year, one of those a 41-point victory on Dec. 16. Owensboro (23-8) topped Catholic for its district crown, and has the highest Dave Cantrall rating, so don’t count the Red Devils out either.

@HLpreps pick: Ohio County.

4th Region

Favorite: Warren Central (29-1), last year’s Sweet 16 runner-up, is considered a unanimous No. 1 team by the state’s media and has only one hiccup on its resume, a Tuesday morning holiday break loss to Madison Central on Dec. 27. The Dragons have four double-figure scorers, including Mr. Basketball candidate Chappelle Whitney (16.6 points).

Spoiler: Bowling Green (24-8), led by junior guard Makayelus Wardlow, (16.8 points) might have the best shot given that the Purples pushed Warren Central to overtime in a 75-67 loss on Feb. 3.

@HLpreps pick: Warren Central.

5th Region

Favorite: Taylor County (24-6) was the pick of the media for the 5th, probably thanks to a 61-59 win over LaRue County on Jan. 5. The Cards have three double-figure scorers, led by sophomore Layken Lyons’ 18.4 points per game.

Spoilers: LaRue County (21-7) features region player of the year Carson Childress (14.1 ppg), but its leading scorer is junior Daniel Allen (21.9 ppg). Despite a Feb. 7 loss to LaRue, Elizabethtown (20-9) has the highest Cantrall Rating in the region and is on a four-game wins streak that includes a victory over Taylor County.

@HLpreps pick: LaRue County.

6th Region

Favorite: Evangel Christian (28-4) reigns as the All “A” Classic champion and seems poised to convert that into region success with the offensive firepower of Christian Doerr (18.7 points), Cyr Malonga (16.2) and Kyran Tilley (16.4). However, the Eagles have had some head-scratching losses this season (Walton-Verona, Danville Christian, Breathitt County), indicating they might be vulnerable.

Spoiler: Pleasure Ridge Park (23-5) dropped a close game to Evangel, 70-67 on Dec. 30, and hit a couple of bumps in February, but the Panthers have region player of the year Keith Robinson (18.5 points) among four players who score in double digits.

@HLpreps pick: Evangel Christian.

7th Region

Favorite: There might be no hotter team in the state than Male (22-10), which has an 11-game win streak that includes topping region rival Ballard and 9th Region contender Covington Catholic. That helped Male jump to No. 1 in the final Dave Cantrall ratings of the regular season. The Bulldogs are led by brothers Jack Edelen (17.6 points) and Cole Edelen (15.6).

Spoiler: Ballard (25-4) took the midseason Louisville Invitational Tournament crown with an 80-71 win over Male on Jan. 14 and has Mr. Basketball candidate Gabe Sisk (22.6 points).

@HLpreps pick: Ballard.

8th Region

Favorite: North Oldham (24-5) has not lost since falling to Lexington Catholic on Dec. 30 and has some impressive notches on its belt, including Mason County, Lyon County and North Laurel. Four Mustangs average double figures, led by senior guard Dallas Roberts (18.1 points).

Spoilers: Grant County (25-7), led by senior forward Dylan Hammonds (26 points per game), can’t be discounted after grabbing a 61-55 win over 11th Region contender Great Crossing on Feb. 4. Woodford County (17-12) merits a chance with sophomore sensation Jasper Johnson (21.7 points). Collins (24-7) will need to step up after losing to Woodford in the 30th District finals.

@HLpreps pick: North Oldham.

9th Region

Favorite: Covington Catholic (26-4) is the defending region champion and has Mr. Basketball candidate Evan Ipsaro (25.3 points), a Miami (Ohio) signee, who can take a game over at any moment.

Spoilers: Conner (19-8) has a lot of offense, led by Landen Hamilton (17.7 points), Dalton Kramer (15.2) and Ayden Lorh (14.6). The Cougars handed CovCath one of its four losses back on Jan. 10; Cooper (16-12) topped Conner in the 33rd District finals with the help of Boone County transfer Shaun Pouncy, who just became eligible..

@HLpreps pick: Conner.

10th Region

Favorite: George Rogers Clark (24-5), the defending Sweet 16 champions, suffered some early season losses that knocked them from No. 1, but the Cards remain dangerous with Mr. Basketball candidate Jerone Morton (19.6 points) and two other starters back from last year, Trent Edwards (16.9 points) and Sam Parrish (14.7).

Spoiler: Mason County (27-5) fell from the media rankings after three February losses, but the Royals are hosting the 10th Region Tournament in their magical Fieldhouse. With Terrell Henry (17.8 points) and Riley Mastin (15.7), Mason could end Clark’s streak of region titles at three.

@HLpreps pick: George Rogers Clark.

12th Region

Favorite: Lincoln County (22-9) thrilled Rupp Arena with its run to the Sweet 16 semifinals last year when it nearly knocked off No. 1 George Rogers Clark, the eventual state champion in a double-overtime game. Tramane Alcorn (15.1 points) and Colton Ralston (13.5) were part of that big-game experience. The Patriots stumbled a bit in February, but have beaten all their closest challengers.

Spoilers: West Jessamine (21-10) and Pulaski County (24-6) have the best shot, according to the latest Cantrall ratings, but the Colts and Maroons suffered blowout defeats to Lincoln during the regular season. Still, half the 16 media members polled on this region picked Pulaski. The other half picked Lincoln.

@HLpreps pick: Lincoln County.

13th Region

Favorite: North Laurel (22-10), the defending champ, suffered most of its losses during a stretch in when it was without two or more key players due to injury, including forward Gavin Chadwell (11.3 points) and winger Ryan Davidson (17.9). With a healthy lineup, Mr. Basketball favorite Reed Sheppard (21.8 points) has more options when opponents throw everything at the Kentucky commit to try to shut him down.

Spoiler: Harlan County (27-5) has 6-foot-6 junior guard Trent Noah, who is a load on offense and the boards with 26.6 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. And he has capable scorers alongside him in Maddox Huff (16.7 points) and Daniel Carmical (13.5). Harlan (24-7) has been ranked in the top 25 this season and will get the first shot at knocking off North Laurel in the opening round.

@HLpreps pick: North Laurel.

14th Region

Favorite: Hazard (27-3) has gone 19-0 in the region this season and beaten all of its top challengers — Breathitt County, Letcher County Central, Perry County Central and Estill County. Four players average in double figures, led by Jamal Hazell (13.9 points).

Spoilers: Breathitt County (15-9) and Perry County Central (18-14) compare favorably to Hazard in the latest Cantrall ratings, but Perry has played the Bulldogs the most and the closest. A fourth win against Kizer Slone (14.2 points) and company might prove difficult.

@HLpreps pick: Hazard.

15th Region

Favorite: Pikeville (20-7) has region player of the year and Mr. Basketball candidate Rylee Samons (23.5 points), who helped the Panthers win the 2022 All “A” Classic and reach the Sweet 16 a year ago, where they topped North Laurel and pushed eventual champion Clark to the limit. Some early losses this season knocked Pikeville off the state radar, but the Panthers remain dangerous.

Spoilers: Martin County (21-10) derailed Pikeville’s hopes for a second straight All “A” Classic appearance and will aim to do the same for its Sweet 16 hopes with Luke Hale (20.9 points) and Brayden McKenzie (14.9).

@HLpreps pick: Pikeville.

16th Region

Favorite: Boyd County (25-5), led by Jacob Spurlock (20.6 points) and Cole Hicks (18.5), tops both the latest Cantrall ratings and the statewide media picks for the 16th. The Lions have taken two of three meetings against Ashland Blazer, including a 74-67 win for the 64th District title last week.

Spoilers: Ashland Blazer (19-11) is led by sophomore sensation Zander Carter (22.3 points) and the senior leadership of Rheyce Deboard (17.8), who won’t let the Tomcats’ run of four straight region titles end without a fight.

@HLpreps pick: Boyd County.

Boys’ Sweet Sixteen

What: High school basketball state tournament

When: March 15-18

Where: Rupp Arena

View the bracket: bit.ly/3SguTA3

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