Here's why Ohio State will go into the Big House and beat Michigan

There was a time when I thought Michigan football was going to have no trouble against Ohio State — especially during the Wolverines’ cupcake season, back when they were cruising through the early games.

Yes, the Wolverines had an embarrassingly easy early schedule, which might have skewed everything, but J.J. McCarthy looked unstoppable — making perfect reads, displaying impressive touch and no one had ever heard about Connor Stalions.

But that changed quickly.

I flipped my opinion: I thought Ohio State would take down the Wolverines — back when the Buckeyes won at Notre Dame, even if Ryan Day went a little nutso: “I’d like to know where Lou Holtz is right now,” he screamed on NBC. “What he said about our team, I cannot believe. This is a tough team right here. We’re proud to be from Ohio. It’s always been Ohio against the world. It will continue to be Ohio against the world.”

And it was Ohio against the world.

Until it became the Wolverines Vs. Everybody.

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Sigh — it’s hard to keep track of who is more maligned. The absurdity surrounding these two programs is delicious.

Then, I flopped back: There was a time when I thought Michigan was going to win The Game. There was absolutely no doubt in my mind — back when Rutgers had a 9-7 halftime lead over the Buckeyes, and Ohio State looked completely vulnerable.

Then, I flipped again: I became concerned about Michigan’s pass protection and it happened against Penn State. Michigan struggled against Penn State’s pass rush and the Wolverines had to punt on their first two possessions. Yes, I know the Wolverines ran 32 straight times to secure the win, just because, well, they could, and because Penn State’s offense is just awful and doesn’t scare anybody. But that won't fly against OSU.

Then, I flopped again: I thought Michigan would win The Game because the Wolverines have had such an easy schedule and have had so much time to work on trick plays and different packages and wrinkles. Maybe, a running back pass — Donovan Edwards was a QB in high school at West Bloomfield. Maybe a new form of flea flicker. Maybe a fake punt or field goal.

Then I flipped: I thought Michigan was in trouble again — and it happened against Maryland when Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 247 yards and the Terps put up 24 points — the most scored by a Michigan opponent this season. To make it worse for Michigan, McCarthy continued to struggle, throwing some dangerous passes and getting picked off at the goal line.

You want to be playing your best ball at the end of the season, refining and building to a peak.

But McCarthy just doesn’t look right.

Maybe it’s his gimpy ankle.

Against Maryland, he completed 12 of 23 passes for 141 yards. He was sacked once and threw a pick. It was his second-worst game, at least statistically, of this season. The only one that was worse was his three-interception game against Bowling Green.

Maybe it’s not having Harbaugh on the sideline the last two weeks (but McCarthy looked just fine earlier in the season against inferior opponents when Harbaugh was serving his first three-game suspension).

McCarthy has now gone four games without throwing a touchdown.

Granted, some of that is a coaching decision, like running the ball 32 times.

And some of that is the Blake Corum effect. When you get to the red zone, you give the ball to the touchdown machine.

But Michigan’s running game just doesn’t look as dominant.

Over the past three weeks, Michigan has relied on Corum, giving him the ball 69 times. But he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry against Purdue and 3.4 yards against Maryland.

That doesn’t scream: We are gonna run wild on the Buckeyes!

Yes, Michigan scored 31 against Maryland. But Michigan’s defense scored on a scoop-and-score and they got a safety off a blocked punt.

So, Michigan’s offense is not exactly clicking on all cylinders.

That’s not just concerning. That’s a giant red flag at a time when the entire season comes down to this one game for Michigan. Lose this game and it’s hard to imagine how the Wolverines get to the College Football Playoff. But that’s their own fault because they played such a weak schedule earlier this year.

Then, I flipped again: there is a part of me that thinks Michigan will win a close one because these two teams are so evenly matched and it’s at home.

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Drama never ends

The drama surrounding this game has been entertaining and fascinating.

When Harbaugh was asked about his respect level for the Ohio State coaches, he had a dramatic, loaded pause and then answered the question loudly — without answering it.

“It’s all about our preparation for Ohio. The days, the minutes, the hours, everything leading up to this game, that’s where our focus is,” Harbaugh said. “Preparing ourselves, planning, gonna practice then execute. Anything else is irrelevant when you get to this kind of big game.”

Day has countered by throwing his own form of shade.

"We've learned a lot about what's gone on the last two years,” he said on Columbus' WBNS-TV. “I don't think it does any good to comment on it right now. There'll be a time and place for that. What matters is this game and getting our guys prepared to go win it."

But alas, they are about to play, and all the whining and shade and disrespect won’t matter a bit.

More than anything else, I think Ohio State is going to win this game every time I think of Marvin Harrison Jr., who is a very gifted, ridiculously talented NFL player — who happens to still be playing in college.

In his past five games, he has eight touchdown catches and a rushing TD.

No doubt — he’s peaking.

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There have been times this week when I convinced myself that Michigan could slow down Harrison — at least a little, the great ones are never stopped — by relying on cornerback Will Johnson with safety help over the top, and then having Mike Sainristil come out of nowhere to pick off a pass or two.

Notre Dame held Harrison to three catches for 32 yards. But here’s the other problem: Against Notre Dame, the Buckeyes countered with Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover, who had 14 catches between them.

If it ended right there, it would be one thing. But Ohio State also has TreVeyon Henderson — a gifted running back who can run and is also a threat out of the backfield.

So, when you consider all those playmakers, all that talent, I’m back to thinking Ohio State is going to win this game.

Then, I flipped again: And I found a new way for Michigan to win.

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How do you defeat a pass rush? You can run right at an edge rusher, making him slow down. Or you can run screens — and Semaj Morgan is going to be huge in this game, with some screens or cutting through the defense or on-end arounds. The freshman from West Bloomfield has magical speed.

Maybe, the Wolverines can get going with Edwards, who is fantastic in space, and Colston Loveland, a tremendous safety blanket of a tight end.

But finally, here’s one last flip that turns into a flop: The Wolverines have not looked great the last few weeks; Ohio State is surging; McCarthy has been struggling; and Ohio State has more weapons:

Ohio State 27, Michigan 24.

Contact Jeff Seidel at jseidel@freepress.com or follow him @seideljeff.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Here's why Ohio State will go into the Big House and beat Michigan