Here's What a Sugar Shortage Could Mean for Your Holiday Baking
Visions of cookies, cakes, pies, and other sugar-loaded treats may take the forefront of your festive daydreams—and your appetite—ahead of the holidays. But if sugar is a staple of baking, and holiday baking is a staple of Christmastime, what happens when there’s an international sugar shortage just in time for the holidays? Before you scream "Christmas disaster," take a second to look at the facts regarding the causes of this year's sugar shortage, when experts predict it will end, and what you can use to substitute the sweet stuff in the meantime.
A report from AP News reveals that The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicts a 2% decline in global sugar production in the 2023 to 2024 season. This is in comparison with the previous year, translating to a loss of about 3.8 million U.S. tons, said Fabio Palmeri, an FAO global commodities market researcher. Talk about unsavory news!
Why is there a sugar shortage?
Look no further than to good ole mother nature as the culprit. The AP News report sheds light on the effects of El Nino, a natural phenomenon that can cause extreme weather conditions, like flooding and drought.
In this case, extreme drought is at the core of the sugar issue in Asia, which houses the second- and third-largest sugar exporters: India and Thailand. El Nino caused extremely dry conditions in India in August, which stunted the crucial growing phase for sugarcane. It also altered the quality of Thailand’s sugar harvest in addition to the lowered quantity.
What effect does this have, exactly?
Unfortunately, the decline in global sugar production means a surge in prices. Sugar worldwide is trading at the highest prices since 2011, which means bakers worldwide are producing less and less, according to AP News. The Bureau of Labor's most recent Consumer Price Index shows that sugar prices have increased 8.8% over the last year. That means you should expect sugar prices to be up from the last time you walked down the baking aisle.
What does this mean for the future of sugar?
Unfortunately, we may continue to see worldwide sugar production numbers go down and prices go up. Naradhip Anantasuk, leader of the Thailand Sugar Planters Association, told AP News that 84 million U.S. tons of sugarcane are expected to be milled in 2024 harvest season compared to 103 million U.S. tons this year. Taking this into consideration, it’s safe to say that the shortage will prevail throughout the next year, making things harder for those looking to bake during the holiday season and beyond.
On the bright side, Brazil’s sugarcane harvest is predicted to be 20% bigger than last year’s due to favorable weather in the Southern Hemisphere. And while Brazil is the biggest sugar exporter, its harvest will only help fill the void later in 2024. Until then, expect sugar prices to continue to be marked up to combat the shortage.
What is a good sugar substitute?
On a sweeter note, if your sugar supply isn’t enough to last you through the holidays, we’ve got you covered with sugar substitutes that will suffice in a pinch for your favorite Christmas treats. For baking substitutions, our top picks are coconut sugar, honey, maple syrup, and molasses. Just keep in mind that when swapping in liquid sweeteners, you'll need to reduce any added liquid in the recipe by about 1 tablespoon for each 1/4 cup of sweetener used. You can also turn to fruit-centric recipes that utilize natural sugars, like pumpkin banana bread or Ree Drummond's recipe for her mom's applesauce muffins.
Regardless of how you choose to get creative with sugar this holiday season, your baked goods are sure to be just as good thanks to these clever substitutions. Just make sure to test the modified recipes out ahead of serving them at your holiday potluck or Christmas party!
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