Here's case Tennessee Titans can be better with Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears than Derrick Henry
Leave the sentimental aside and ask yourself one simple question: Are the Tennessee Titans better with Tony Pollard than they would've been with Derrick Henry?
There's no easy answer. Henry's off to Baltimore, taking his 70 touchdowns of the past five seasons with him. Pollard, fresh off a five-year stint and a franchise tag with the Dallas Cowboys, is expected to sign with the Titans as Henry's co-replacement, stepping into a room with second-year back Tyjae Spears as coach Brian Callahan reconfigures the offense.
Henry was the NFL's best traditional running back during his eight years with the Titans. Now they are pooh-poohing the entire idea of needing a traditional running back.
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So, again: Are the Titans better off? Let's examine.
Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard and Joe Mixon: 3 Titans baselines
Let's start by establishing three baselines:
One: Henry's per-game averages since 2021. Two: Pollard's per-game averages since 2021. And three: Joe Mixon's per-game averages since 2021, with Callahan as his offensive coordinator in Cincinnati.
Henry, 2021-23: 22.6 touches per game, 4.8 yards per touch, 107.5 scrimmage yards per game
Pollard, 2021-23: 14.8 touches per game, 5.3 yards per touch, 78.1 scrimmage yards per game
Mixon, 2021-23: 19.4 touches per game, 4.6 yards per touch, 89 scrimmage yards per game
Now we get to do a little football algebra. Henry's 107.5 scrimmage yards per game are what the Titans want to recreate. Pollard's 5.3 yards per touch is the way they want to recreate it. And Mixon's 19.4 touches per game is the usage rate to base things off.
Take Pollard's yards per touch and multiply it by Mixon's touches and that equals 102.8 yards per game. Roughly equivalent to Henry's production.
There are, of course, about a dozen asterisks that make this simple math a little cloudier. We'll talk about a few of them in the coming sections. For now, consider this the baseline: Callahan's offense plus Pollard's success rates can equal Henry's production.
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Tony Pollard and the overload problem
Pollard's rate stats took a significant dip in 2023, his first year as a full-time starter who wasn't splitting carries with Ezekiel Elliott. In 2021-22, he averaged 13 touches per game and 6.1 yards per touch. In 2023, the Cowboys gave Pollard 18 touches per game but his production dropped to 4.3 yards per touch.
So the idea of Pollard getting Mixon's 19.4 touches per game seems like a bad plan. At his 2023 clip, Pollard would account for only 83.4 scrimmage yards per game, given Mixon's workload. Which isn't bad; it's actually a little more than what Henry accounted for per game in 2023. But it's not Pollard at his most optimal.
So let's bring Spears into the equation.
Between Mixon and all of his backups, Cincinnati running backs touched the ball an average of 24.8 times per game from 2021 to 2023. So let's cap Pollard at 13 touches per game like he got in his best years and give Spears the other 12 touches.
Spears averaged 5.5 yards per touch as a rookie on about nine touches per game. If he keeps that rate steady, that's 66 scrimmage yards per game on 12 touches. Give Pollard his 13 touches at 6.1 yards per touch and he'd account for 79 yards per game. Add that up and the Titans get 145 scrimmage yards per game from their running backs, nine more than Henry accounted for in his 2,000-yard season.
Again, more asterisks: Pollard put up his best numbers behind a top-tier Cowboys offensive line in an offense loaded with receiver talent. Callahan had the benefit of scheming for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in addition to Mixon. More than 60% of Spears' touches came when the Titans needed 10 or more yards to get a first down, so his numbers don't reflect many short-yardage opportunities that would drag down his averages.
Nevertheless: If maximized, Spears and Pollard are one heckuva one-two punch.
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So can Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears really equal more than Derrick Henry?
Let's go back to Dallas to find the ideal situation. In a six-game span from Nov. 20 through Dec. 24 in 2022, the Cowboys went 5-1, averaging 37 points and 415.5 yards per game. Pollard averaged 18 touches and 94 scrimmage yards per game. Elliott averaged 18 touches and 74 scrimmage yards per game. Dallas' offense was essentially unstoppable, and Pollard was as good as he'd ever been.
Zoom out a little bit and consider this:
Pollard, last 8 games of 2022: 14 carries per game, 4.5 targets per game
Mixon, 2021-23: 16.1 carries per game, 4 targets per game
At Pollard's actual best, he was rotating roughly equally with another back and the ball was coming his way at essentially the same rate Callahan funneled the ball Mixon's way. That's your best-case scenario.
But let's be a little more realistic. Average Pollard's high highs from 2022 with his mid middles in 2023 and let's say he gains 5 yards per touch. Dock Spears' production half a yard to account for greater usage rate and put him at 5 yards per touch, too. Give those guys 25 touches per game and that's 125 scrimmage yards.
Spears and Henry averaged 131 scrimmage yards on 27 touches per game last year. Meaning the Pollard-Spears duo can produce at essentially the same rate even if both regress from their best.
Henry's mystique won't be replicated. Nor will his ability to wear down defenses or draw safeties into the box. Henry isn't the type of player who can be reduced to numbers on a page.
But ultimately, production ends up as numbers on a page. And there's a path to the Titans being just as good or even better on the page with Henry's replacements than they were with Henry.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Derrick Henry out, Tony Pollard in: Can Tennessee Titans be better?
