Grading the state's Division I men's basketball teams; who will make the Big Dance?
The state’s men's basketball teams currently offer us the best hope of an at-large selection to an NCAA Tournament.
More: Midterm grades for Rhode Island's women's basketball teams; who's at the top of the class?
Providence College has a path to March Madness waiting. Protect home court, steal a game or two on the road and advance in the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden — that should be enough of a case on Selection Sunday.
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Bryant should start its America East Tournament road in Smithfield. The Bulldogs have played well enough to put themselves in line for at least a quarterfinal matchup at Chace Athletic Center. It could be more depending on some key results down the stretch.
Rhode Island looks likely to outperform some low expectations entering Atlantic 10 play.
Brown is on the opposite track — its potential chance to challenge the top of the Ivy League standings hasn’t come to fruition. The Bears are under pressure to make their last few games meaningful, and they need some wins in a hurry.
How might these last few weeks of the regular season look? Let’s start with grades at the rough middle of conference play for each of these four programs.
Brown (6-16, 2-5 Ivy League): C-
The Bears were expected to threaten the top half of their conference standings. Brown has struggled from the outset instead, not beating a Division I opponent until late November and dropping five of its first seven in league play.
There have been a couple of results that felt like possible turning points — a solid road win at Rhode Island, a nice home comeback against Siena. The Bears just haven’t been able to sustain any momentum, and a certain pair of losses — at Dartmouth, home on Saturday to Columbia — could ultimately damage their chances of playing deep into March.
The next four games come on the road — Princeton, Penn, the Lions and Cornell. The Tigers and Big Red are both currently in Ivy Madness position. It feels like Brown could need to win at least three of them to maintain its hopes of arriving at the same.
Bryant (15-9, 7-2 America East): A-
The Bulldogs started just 1-3 and were still attempting to move past the turmoil surrounding their coaching situation. Jared Grasso was out and Phil Martelli Jr. was into his first few weeks leading a program.
More: Here's how Bryant basketball's season sweep of UNH could mean a better playoff path
An upset road win at last year's Final Four surprise Florida Atlantic sparked something. Bryant grinded out a road win at Brown, outlasted Towson in double overtime on a neutral floor and dusted a Drexel team playing among the CAA contenders. The Bulldogs won their first five conference games before falling short against Vermont.
Only a road loss to Maine prevents this from being an A. There haven’t been many curious results otherwise. This upcoming week will be tasty — the Black Bears visit on Thursday and UMass Lowell comes calling on Saturday.
Providence (15-9, 6-7 Big East): B+
Bryce Hopkins going down early in the second half against Seton Hall changed the season. The Friars were never going to be the same without a player of that caliber. Few college rosters have a ready replacement.
What Providence has done is battle and it has stayed afloat in a difficult conference. The Friars are still on the bubble with respect to NCAA Tournament contention and have top-50 KenPom.com wins against Wisconsin, Marquette, Butler and Creighton in the bank. A couple more of those down the stretch and the Friars could make their eighth March Madness appearance since 2013-14.
Devin Carter has played like a star. His most recent Superman performance in an overtime victory against the Bluejays was one for the books.
Rhode Island (11-12, 5-5 Atlantic 10): C+
Rebuilding is maddeningly inconsistent by nature. No Rams fans are happy with losses to Brown, New Hampshire and Fordham at home. Blowout road defeats at Dayton and St. Bonaventure were a reminder of how far away URI is from the top of its conference.
But there has been progress here. The Rams have more wins overall and have already matched their league total from 2022-23. They smashed George Washington last week to pick up a second conference road win — URI had just one last year, and it was in a last chance at Loyola Chicago.
Should they be further along? Perhaps. But it was always going to be unlikely the Rams would make a real jump until Archie Miller’s third season. Developing core pieces like David Green, Jaden House, Zek Montgomery, Luis Kortright, Cam Estevez and David Fuchs would make for a nice immediate future.
On X: @BillKoch25
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Providence and Bryant should challenge for the NCAA Tournament
