Gradey Dick is due for a bounce-back game. Will it happen in Waco? KU opponent breakdown

After a blowout loss to TCU on Saturday, the Kansas men’s basketball team looks to bounce back against conference foe Baylor on Monday at Ferrell Center.

The two teams last met in February, with the Bears winning 80-72 over the Jayhawks in Waco, Texas.

Baylor enters off a 62-60 win over Oklahoma on Saturday. The Bears have won four straight games and boast one of the best offenses in that nation, led by a guard contending for Big 12 Freshman of the Year.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

Monday’s game: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 21 Baylor

When/where: 8:00 p.m., Ferrell Center (Waco, Texas)

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 14-5, 4-3 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Baylor Team Strengths

• Elite offense: Baylor ranks 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency (93.3). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Bears also rank 37th in effective FG% (58.3).

• Sharing is caring: Baylor ranks 18th in the nation in assist-rate percentage (60.1).

• Second chances galore: The Bears love to crash the glass. Baylor ranks 9th in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2) and 34th in offensive rebounds per game (12.4)

Baylor Team Weaknesses

• Foul issues: Baylor struggles to play defense without fouling. The Bears rank 232nd in opposing team free throw rate (33.2). The Division I average is 31.4%.

• Susceptible defense: The Bears rank 171st in opponent effective FG% (50.1). They struggle to defend inside the arc, ranking 197th in opponent two-point percentage (50.4).

• Younger team: The Baylor roster lacks college basketball experience. The Bears rank 216th in Division I experience (1.74 years)

Baylor Name to Know

6-foot-4 freshman guard Keyonte George (No. 1)

+ Explosive athlete that is elite at finishing at the rim (71%)

+ Sharpshooter; shoots 35.6% from three

- Struggles to take care of the ball (3.0 turnovers per game)

- Not particularly efficient (39.3% FG)

Tale of the Tape

Baylor isn’t afraid to let it fly from beyond the arc. The Bears rank 31st in the nation in three-point-attempt percentage (44.9) — essentially, close to 45% of their field-goal attempts are threes.

On this play, forward Jalen Bridges received a pass in the right corner and canned the three. The Jayhawks’ defensive focus should be on running the Bears off the three-point line. Baylor has three starters that average 35% or better from beyond the arc on decent volume, so KU can’t let Baylor get hot.

The Bears are excellent at finding quality shots with their passing. Here, Bridges rolled into the lane, received a pass and drew an extra Texas Tech defender. Then Bridges passed it to cutting Flo Thamba, who converted the bucket in close.

Baylor thrives at creating opportunities with cutters against opposing defenses that over-help. KU needs to ensure it keeps track of the Bears’ players and doesn’t overhelp when a defensive breakdown happens.

Game Prediction

After two straight losses, this game is the epitome of a must-win for Kansas.

In their last two games, the Jayhawks have given up a season-high 83 points and a plethora of threes, so KU’s defense needs to be focused and energetic from the tip.

KU has a habit of getting into big holes, and if that happens against this Baylor team, the game could be over quickly. Kansas’ defense can’t let the Bears get comfortable from beyond the arc and must keep track of a Baylor offense that thrives on cutting and relocation.

Then there’s the matchup between the KU offense and Baylor defense. Baylor struggles to defend inside the arc (197th in opposing team two-point percentage), so KU should focus on using KJ Adams in the short pick and roll. Adams has impressed in that area, plus he could draw fouls and cause early foul trouble for a Bears team that fouls a lot.

Kansas desperately needs this win, so look for the Jayhawks to come out with a high-energy effort on both ends. If KU can limit Baylor’s offense from raining threes, it should have a great chance to win.

Kansas 82, Baylor 78

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+3)

Shreyas’ season record: 8-3

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-3

KU Player to Watch: Gradey Dick

Dick is in a bit of a shooting slump in his last two games, shooting 3-for-16 (18.7%) from three. Against a Baylor team that isn’t particularly great at defending the three, Dick has an opportunity to bounce back.

Dick has a tendency to roll to an efficient shooting night when he makes his first few shots. If he doesn’t, it’s usually a rough night. If Dick can get going early, it’ll open up the floor for the struggling KU offense.

KU has lacked a secondary scorer behind forward Jalen Wilson in the last few games, so it desperately needs Dick to step up and fill that role. If he can, Kansas should walk out of Waco with its first victory since February 2020.