Will the GOP tighten its grip in Frankfort? Six KY statehouse races to watch

November is a long ways away.

Most of the political attention from here on out will be put on the 2024 presidential race, to see who will control the executive branch of the country, incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden or former Republican President Donald Trump.

But closer to home, there are plenty of Republican-Democrat battles playing out in districts across Kentucky, with each representing populations of about 45,000 people.

Now that the candidate pool has been set by Tuesday’s primary, here are six races to keep an eye on going into the November general election.

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House District 45

House District 45’s new Republican candidate, Thomas Jefferson, and his Democratic rival, Adam Moore.

With a 40-plus point margin that surprised many — especially given the amount of money that came in to help his opponent — Jefferson knocked out two-term Rep. Killian Timoney, R-Nicholasville, raking in about 78% of the vote.

Jefferson, as a member of the Liberty wing of the GOP, contrasted Timoney’s more socially moderate Republicanism.

Outside groups invested more than $250,000 toward Timoney’s re-election bid. But Jefferson and the rest of the Liberty movement hobbled the Fayette County Public Schools educator by repeatedly calling attention to his votes against a GOP bill banning gender-affirming care in 2023.

But some, including Republicans, worry about Jefferson’s wider appeal in a purple district like the 45th, which includes part of Jessamine and Fayette counties.

Amy Wickliffe, a Republican strategist and lobbyist, said on KET Tuesday night, referencing Timoney’s opposition to SB 150, that those votes were “probably the right fight for this district, and I think that’s important to remember.”

According to elections website CNAlysis, former president Donald Trump won the district in 2020 by just over three percentage points.

Presenting the GOP with a farther right candidate, then, likely isn’t a winning strategy.

As Republican political strategist Trey Grayson said, “I heard from House leadership that this is (a race) they’d be very concerned about losing if Timoney lost the primary.”

Moore seems to agree that Jefferson’s victory gives him a foothold and a chance to better contrast himself as the sensible candidate. After the race was called Tuesday evening, he was quick to issue a rejoinder.

“Tonight we saw an insurgent candidate win the Republican primary in the 45th,” Moore posted on X, formerly Twitter.

“I’m glad to draw a clear distinction between myself, who’s focused on policies that will help Kentuckians, versus a candidate running on grievances fueled by culture wars.”

Eastern and Northern KY

Representatives Ashley Tackett Laferty and Stephanie Dietz, while they’re members of different parties in varying regions of the state, face a similar challenge in November: convincing their politically purple districts to continue to support them.

A Republican in Kenton County’s 65th District first elected in 2022, Dietz faces Aaron Currin, a Democrat.

Like Timoney, Dietz also split with the majority of her party in voting against the ban on gender-affirming health care. She has largely shied away from embracing social wedge issues as a policy platform, including when former Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron unsuccessfully ran an anti-trans campaign for governor against Gov. Andy Beshear.

A family lawyer, Dietz has passed policy to appoint guardians ad litem to unrepresented minors, to make it illegal to possess a child sex doll and criminalize the distribution of computer-generated images depicting child sex abuse, and to expand protections for people who injure or attempt to injure health care workers.

Currin, a trial attorney and graduate of Covington Catholic, opposes the GOP effort this past session to divert public school money to private schools. Dietz, along with much of the rest of her party, voted in favor of House BIll 2, which will put a “school choice” amendment on the November ballot.

Currin also wants to restore full access to reproductive health care, including abortion, and supports Beshear’s Better Kentucky Plan.

House District 65, which Dietz flipped in 2022, voted for Trump by just over two percentage points in 2020, per CNAlysis.

Tackett Laferty, whose House District 95 includes Floyd County and part of Pike County, is one of two elected Democrats left in the once deep-blue Eastern Kentucky. Tackett Laferty tracks right on some issues, including Senate Bill 150. She also voted in favor of a 2022 omnibus bill, House Bill 3, to further restrict and track abortions across Kentucky.

She voted against the school choice amendment.

Her Republican challenger, Brandon Spencer — whose website is “Let’s go Brandon 95,” both a reference to his name and a well-known insult to President Joe Biden — is a former health care CEO and law enforcement officer.

Tackett Laferty has won all three of her general election contests by double digits in spite of a red tidal wave at the federal level. The district voted for Trump by a 51-point margin in 2020.

Spender was elected to the 95th District’s House seat in 2006 as a Democrat, but left a year into his term. He’s now running for the GOP.

“You might say that I left the Democrat Party, but I think, like most of you, we feel like the Democrat Party has left us,” Spencer wrote on his website.

House District 29

The 29th House District seat long occupied by Rep. Kevin Bratcher, R-Louisville, is up for grabs this cycle. Bratcher announced late last year that he wasn’t running for reelection and would instead seek a seat on the Louisville Metro Council.

District 29 spans part of the southern end of Jefferson County, abutting Bullit County.

Timothy Findley, Jr., a Democrat, pastor and CEO of an adult care program, will face Republican challenger Chris Lewis, who is endorsed by Kentucky Right to Life.

Trump won the district by about 11 points in 2020.

House District 31

Rep. Susan Witten, R-Louisville, occupies the bluest district of any of the House’s 80 Republicans. Her district backed Beshear by more than 24 percentage points and it elected Biden by more than 3 points.

After redistricting, Witten, a first-time representative claimed the district by a comfortable 4-point margin in 2022.

She focused her past session on criminal justice — she co-sponsored House Bill 5, which increases penalties on various offenses and will lead to increased prison populations — and animal rights. She was primary sponsor on House Bill 258, which made torture of a dog or cat a felony.

Witten faces legitimate Democratic competition for her Eastern Jefferson County District. Colleen Davis, a Louisville attorney, had raised more than twice as much as Witten — $73,000 to $32,000.

House District 67

House District 67 in Campbell County, vacated by Rep. Rachel Roberts, R-Newport, is a seat Republicans have a reasonable chance of flipping.

Winner of the GOP primary, Terry Hatton, a more establishment candidate who is in favor of school choice, will face Democrat Matt Lehman, who has highlighted restoring access to reproductive health care and combating the opioid epidemic as key campaign issues.

Lehman built his name ID in the district when he ran against Rep. Thomas Massie, R-KY, garnering only 31% of the vote in the deep red district.

Herald-Leader reporter Austin Horn contributed to this story.