GOP rivals tread lightly around Iowa, New Hampshire debates

Republican presidential hopefuls are facing a fresh slate of debates next month, coming just days ahead of critical nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The three debates, hosted by CNN and ABC News, offer some of the last opportunities for candidates to boost their profile in early-voting states against front-runner former President Trump. But the events have also injected some uncertainty into the campaign trail.

So far, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has committed to two of the debates and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley says she’ll participate in the Iowa event, while their competitors have yet to confirm specific plans. It’s also unclear who will qualify for the debates or if the events will happen, given CNN’s high requirements and questions about how many candidates might choose to participate.

Nonetheless, observers say the debates could be pivotal in swaying voters, especially as DeSantis and Haley battle for second place behind Trump.

A debate so close to ballot-casting is “high risk, high reward,” said Jimmy Centers, a GOP strategist based in Iowa.

There are risks if candidates fumble on stage, but the debates offer candidates who have “plateaued, or worse, started to sink” some of the last chances to go in front of a national audience, Centers said.

After the fourth GOP debate earlier this month, the Republican National Committee (RNC) released candidates from a requirement that they participate in only party-sanctioned debates, clearing the path for major networks to host unsanctioned events.  

CNN plans to host a Jan. 10 debate in the state ahead of the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. Before New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary, ABC is planning a Jan. 18 debate, and CNN is slating another for Jan. 21.  

“I don’t think it will be as impactful as in past years, but it will still have an impact among a segment of independent voters who have yet to decide,” said New Hampshire-based strategist Mike Dennehy of the debates set for the Granite State.

That figure might be just a few percentage points, he said, but a few points could “be a difference-maker between second and third place” when ballots are counted next month.

DeSantis shared on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that he’s looking forward to the CNN debate in Iowa and the ABC debate in New Hampshire.

His team confirmed he plans to attend those two so far, and called out Haley — seen as DeSantis’s top rival as the main alternative to Trump — for being noncommittal about the slated debates.

“Ron DeSantis has accepted every major debate and won each of them,” said Bryan Griffin, press secretary for the DeSantis campaign. After the fourth debate, he continued, “it is no wonder why Haley has failed to confirm she will join Ron DeSantis on the debate stage in Iowa and New Hampshire next month.”

Haley’s team announced on Friday that she plans to debate in Iowa. Her campaign is also arguing that Trump, who skipped the party’s first four debates and isn’t expected to take part in others, should show up to the stage in Iowa.

“The first four debates have been great for our campaign and for voters, and we look forward to the fifth in Iowa,” Haley said in a statement. “As the debate stage continues to shrink, it’s getting harder for Donald Trump to hide.”

“Candidates in those final days before the caucus think really strategically about the types of events that they do. They typically like to build their own events, so they generally know what they’re walking into,” said Centers.

“All of those things go out the window in a debate. You do not have control.”

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was asked on Hugh Hewitt’s show whether he would do a debate not run by the RNC.

“Look, I’ll show up at any debate, any time, any place,” Christie said.

The Hill has also reached out to the campaign for entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy about his plans for the January events.

“Timing of the debates really matters: how close in proximity they are to actually voting. You want them to be pretty close and so that they can have an impact, but not too close where it trades off with campaigning and retail politics and things like that,” said Aaron Kall, the director of the University of Michigan’s debate program.

The slate of options gives “the candidates more leverage” to pick which events they want to take part in, said Kall.

Ultimately, some candidates may not make the cut to participate.

The RNC imposed polling and donor criteria on candidates as a barrier to qualifying for the first four sanctioned debates, and the networks are putting out their own requirements to qualify for the January events.

ABC, partnering with WMUR-TV, plans to release details about how to qualify for its event at Saint Anselm College in Manchester at a later date.

For the CNN events, candidates have to be polling at least 10 percent in three separate national and/or state polls of Republican caucusgoers or primary voters — from either Iowa or New Hampshire, respectively — that also meet CNN’s reporting standards, including at least one poll that must be “an approved CNN poll” of likely Republican voters in each state.

Candidates who finish in one of the top three Iowa slots will receive an invitation to participate in the Granite State event.

CNN’s high bar for polling could call into question whether the show goes on in the Hawkeye State.

“If CNN doesn’t adjust the thresholds for polling, I don’t know if they’re going to happen,” said Centers, the Iowa strategist.

Kall said there seems to be “a lot of uncertainty” around the January debates.

“The thresholds are really high, making it kind of difficult for there to be more than two candidates, assuming Trump continues not to participate. And then I think there’s also a dispute over the kind of dueling New Hampshire debates with ABC and CNN,” Kall said. 

CNN’s New Hampshire debate, which the network announced would also be held at Saint Anselm College, surprised state and university officials. Traditionally, ABC holds debates ahead of New Hampshire’s primary.

Chris Ager, the chairman of New Hampshire’s Republican Party, told The New York Times that he hadn’t been contacted by the network about the plans — and Neil Levesque, who works at Saint Anselm College, said, “We were surprised to be included on a press release by a network about a debate which we had not planned or booked.”

Given Trump’s substantial lead over his GOP competitors and that candidates have participated in four RNC debates already, there are questions about how additional debates will affect the larger picture of the race.

“Every candidate who would like to get more notoriety and prominence will join in the fun. And those of us who enjoy watching debates will talk about them the next day. But the trend line for the Republican primaries of 2024 is largely set, and there’s very little that can change it,” said GOP strategist Mark Weaver.

But so far, the debates have been shown to boost some campaigns — Haley’s surge in recent months, for example, has been tied to her strong debate performances.

And the timing of January’s debates — on the heels of New Hampshire and Iowa’s early voting contests — is leading some observers to say there’s still a chance for the events to add some benefit.

“I think it adds to the energy of the state process,” said Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist, on the idea of holding a debate in a state that’s just about to vote. “It really does potentially add to the momentum and energy of the race.”

This story was updated on Dec. 15 around 10:30 a.m.

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