The GOP establishment is lining up against Eric Greitens. McConnell, Scott stay quiet.

There is widespread agreement among most of the Republican political establishment: If former Gov. Eric Greitens wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, their control of a relatively safe seat could be in jeopardy. But even as he polls well in the race, national Republicans haven’t figured out what to do about it.

Through most of the Republican primary Greitens’ opponents have been critical but didn’t spend substantial money attacking his campaign. After Greitens posted a fundraising video proclaiming that it was open season for hunting members of his own political party, a dam broke.

In the aftermath of the video, Missouri donors launched a super PAC with the intention of going after Greitens. A former staffer for U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt’s 2016 campaign began highlighting negative publicity about Greitens to reporters. A former staffer of U.S. Sen. John Danforth entered the Senate race as an independent candidate.

But even as Missouri’s Republican political establishment began to coalesce against Greitens, top Senate Republican leaders in the Capitol have stayed quiet.

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, the Florida Republican who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has said he will not get involved in the primary to prevent Greitens from winning, consistent with what has long been the policy of the Senate’s top campaign arm. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky – whose vast political machine has marshaled resources to block candidates he deems unelectable since 2014 – has made no indication he would get involved.

The two have been hands-off even as Greitens has portrayed any opposition or criticism of his campaign as the dark machinations of Washington elites — from allegations of domestic abuse to questions about whether he would be able to win a general election.

His defiant embrace of victimhood has muddied the political calculation for national Republicans as they try to determine whether, or how much, to intervene in a race Greitens isn’t guaranteed to win.

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who has called on Greitens to drop out of the race and endorsed U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, wouldn’t say whether he wanted national Republicans to become more involved in the race.

“I’m not gonna give anybody direction, but I’ll just say that I’m doing everything I can to try to make sure that Vicky Hartzler can get her message out,” Hawley said. “And then also people hear the truth about, particularly, the former governor.”

Former President Donald Trump said this weekend that he would not be endorsing Hartzler for U.S. Senate, despite Hawley’s support for her candidacy.

NRSC steers clear of the Missouri primary

Scott, the NRSC chairman, reiterated recently that he didn’t plan to intervene in the Missouri primary and emphasized that he thought whichever candidates emerged on top would go on to win the general election.

“I’m not getting involved in any open primaries,” Scott said during a question-and-answer session with reporters in June. “I think Missouri would make a good choice. And I think whoever they choose is going to be a Republican senator from Missouri.”

When he spoke with reporters last month, Scott said that he hadn’t yet seen Greitens’ infamous web-only ad (it had been released just days prior) but that no candidate “ought to ever be promoting any violence.” It’s not the first time Scott has offered tacit criticism of Greitens. In March, the Florida Republican called the allegations that Greitens abused his ex-wife and son “pretty disturbing,” but he’s still stopped short of calling him to exit the race.

Scott, who grew up in North Kansas City, acknowledges that he doesn’t think an intervention from a GOP leader does much to sway voter opinion, based in part on his own history. A dozen years ago, the then-political neophyte took on an establishment-backed Republican, Bill McCollum, in the state’s gubernatorial primary, winning what was once considered a long-shot bid.

“In 2010, I had no endorsements,” he said. “I was completely new. And the voters, I went and explained why I should be the new governor, and I was able to sell a message. So … whether it’s Eric Schmitt, or Vicky Hartzler, or Billy Long, or Eric Greitens, one of them is going to have the best message for voters.”

Scott has frustrated some national Republicans since becoming NRSC chair, releasing his own controversial policy agenda earlier this year that drew a rebuke from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and others in the party. Scott later released a revised version of the agenda.

Republicans who know the Florida senator say they think he’s keenly aware that injecting himself into a primary will not only fail to change the dynamic of the race, it’ll risk his own future political ambitions.

Scott is widely seen among national Republicans as positioning himself for a future presidential race, though he has reiterated lately he’s focused only on the 2022 midterms and then his own re-election in 2024.

“It’s difficult for any Republican to get involved unless they have a lot of gravitas that extends beyond their home state and DC, and Rick has ambitions beyond this,” said one conservative strategist, familiar with the dynamic. “Injecting himself in a hot primary risks hindering him from getting to A to B.”

Will McConnell get involved?

McConnell, on the other hand, has not been afraid to get involved in a primary when he believes it will risk his chances to win the U.S. Senate. McConnell wrote in his memoir “The Long Game” that after candidates associated with the Tea Party won in 2012 and subsequently lost general elections – like former Rep. Todd Akin in Missouri – he no longer believed any challenge should be discounted.

In 2020, McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund spent more than $3 million in Kansas running ads attacking former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who had recently lost a gubernatorial election in the state.

The group, called the Plains PAC, started spending money late in the campaign, after the Federal Elections Commission’s June deadline to report its donors. The group targeted Kobach’s ties to white nationalists, helping to lift U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall to a 14-point victory.

So far in Missouri, it appears McConnell and his PAC have avoided stepping into the race. When asked about Greitens in the U.S. Capitol, McConnell has repeated that it will be up to Missourians to decide whether or not to elect him.

That hasn’t stopped Greitens from accusing McConnell of trying to tip the scales.

After being accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife in March, Greitens quickly claimed that the allegations were orchestrated by political strategists associated with McConnell. The connection was thin – Sheena Greitens’ sister worked for someone who had previously worked with and praised McConnell – but Greitens’ attorneys attempted to subpoena phone records in order to prove his claim (thus far, no evidence has been produced by the subpoenas).

He also quickly accused McConnell of being behind a super PAC formed to attack Greitens, called “Show Me Values.” While the group is not revealing all of its donors, one of them is Missouri investor Rex Sinquefield, who has spent more than $1 million on a PAC backing Attorney General Eric Schmitt in the U.S. Senate race.

Sinquefield is a highly sought after Missouri Republican mega-donor who founded the Show-Me Institute, a group that urges politicians to cut taxes.

Instead of going after Sinquefield’s connection to Schmitt, Greitens instead highlighted the fact that the St. Louis businessman had previously donated to McConnell, saying it was evidence that McConnell was trying to block him from getting to the Senate.

Already, the group has spent more than $2 million attacking Greitens, including around $1 million boosting an ad quoting Sheena Greitens domestic violence claims. It shows quotes from Sheena Greitens’ March affidavit in which she said she was concerned for her safety and the safety of her children before saying, “That’s the real Eric Greitens.”

Greitens has continued to blame McConnell for the attacks.

“The lies keep coming from my RINO opponents & Mitch McConnell’s top allies,” Greitens wrote on Twitter Friday. “They only attack the ones they fear.”