How Georgia Senate runoffs could close door on Trump era — or cripple Joe Biden’s presidency before it starts
With the U.S. set to inaugurate a new president in just two weeks, the Georgia Senate runoffs have become the second most important election in recent history — with nothing less than control of the entire U.S. Senate at stake.
When the Peach State goes to the polls Tuesday in an unprecedented double-barreled contest pitting Democrats Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock against Republican incumbents Sen. David Perdue and Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the results will be felt across the country for at least the next two years.
If the two Democrats win, the country will effectively be turning the page from the tumultuous Trump era by handing President-elect Joe Biden control of both houses of Congress, albeit by the thinnest of margins.
If the Republicans hold on to one or both seats, the GOP will keep the Senate as a bulwark against Biden —and Trump can claim a measure of victory even as he reluctantly leaves the White House on Jan. 20.
“It’s a very big deal, no doubt about it,” said Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “It will make an enormous difference and it’s all riding on the vote of one state at one time.”
Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with non-partisan newsletter Inside Elections, says the unbelievable amount of money being spent tells you just how high the stakes are.
“They’ve already spent half a billion dollars on this race, on both sides,” Rubashkin said. “This is unlike any other election in modern political history.”
For Biden, flipping Georgia’s two Senate seats could give him at least a fighting chance of implementing key planks of his ambitious agenda. That’s because the Democrats would control 50 seats in the Senate, enough to win control since Vice President-elect Kamala Harris can break a 50-50 tie.
For Trump, having Republicans hold at least one Georgia seat means the outgoing president will loudly proclaim victory and take credit for pushing Perdue and Loeffler over the electoral finish line by revving up his #MAGA base.
Trump will likely use a Georgia win as leverage in his own fight to maintain control over the Republican Party even after he leaves the White House and eyes a possible return in 2024.
“It’s a message to Republicans: ‘Remember me?’” Sabato said. “‘Don’t think you can ignore me.’”
But losses by both Perdue, who’s running against Ossoff, and Loeffler, who is being challenged by Warnock, would amount to another embarrassment for Trump after a humiliating loss to Biden that he still refuses to accept.
“It might show that his power is depleted, at least a bit,” Rubashkin said.
Republican strategist Ryan Williams said the runoffs should have been a layup for the GOP. But Trump may have hurt his own allies’ chances because of his obsession with overturning his loss on baseless claims of voter fraud and a “rigged” system ― a curious message that even has some #MAGA supporters calling for a boycott.
“It’s insanity. It really throws [the Georgia] election into question,” Williams said.
With Democratic control of the Senate and a similar razor-thin lead in the House during the next two years, there is much Biden can try to accomplish. Democrats could try to push through an enormous new COVID relief package, including more direct payments to Americans and help for cash-strapped state and local governments.
Biden would likely be able to get almost all his cabinet members confirmed and can start cutting into the big Republican edge among federal judges.
Strengthening Obamacare could be on the agenda, too. Dems could seek even seek to add a so-called public option, after four years of Trump seeking to tear down his predecessor’s signature health care achievement.
Congress could make DACA permanent, allowing so-called Dreamers security that they won’t face deportation again. Biden could also move to make more sweeping immigration reforms, although that would require some Republican support.
On voting rights, Democrats could push to end gerrymandering or outlaw what they see as efforts to make it harder for Blacks and other minorities to vote.
Yet none of Biden’s wish list will be easy to achieve even if Democrats win both Georgia races. Most legislation requires 60 seats in the Senate, making major achievements next to impossible in a hyper-partisan age.
And the former vice president faces the same frustrations he did while serving under his old boss President Obama if Republicans hold onto the upper chamber. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has long relished the role of Grim Reaper, killing what he calls Democrats’ free-spending excesses.
There is no doubt he will double down on that role if he remains in control during a Biden presidency, much as he did during Obama’s first term.
But Peach State voters are realizing that as Georgia goes, so goes the nation. The runoffs rave already demolished Senate fundraising records, with both the Ossoff and Warnock campaigns hauling in slightly more than $100 million each over the past two months, easily beating their respective competitors.
And early voter turnout is smashing records, closing in on 3 million votes and defying predictions that it would drop off significantly from the general election in November when none of the Senate candidates scored a majority, precipitating the dual runoffs under Georgia law.
Democrats smell blood because turnout has been much heavier in the Atlanta area. Blacks so far are also voting in far greater numbers than whites.
The latest polls also give Democrats the edge. But as the November election showed, polls are unreliable and most insiders still regard both races as toss-ups.
Both Trump and Biden plan to jet into the state for dueling last-minute campaign rallies on Monday, the day before polls open.
Then it’s up to the voters. Whatever the results, don’t expect Trump to keep quiet about them.
“One way or another, he’ll make it all about him,” Sabato said.
