Gas prices are on a record-breaking decline. Is this the last week that prices fall?

Gas prices just keep declining. But the question remains: for how long?

The week of Sept. 11 marked the 14th consecutive week that the national average gas price declined, according to a Monday, Sept. 19, blog post from GasBuddy. The average is now $3.64, down 3.9 cents from last week and 25.7 cents from this time last month. Prices are still 45.9 cents higher than this time last year.

The current streak beats 2018’s record decline and marks the longest downward streak in prices since 2015, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in the post.

While prices continue to fall, experts are wary that the almost 100-day streak might come to an end as soon as this week.

Here’s what you need to know.

Could gas prices rise again?

The last 14 weeks have been a reprieve from June’s record-breaking price highs. Prices hit their highest point on-record on June 14, when the national average was $5.01, according to AAA’s data.

But at some point, the decline streak has to come to an end, even if just for a day. Recently, the size of the daily price decreases has been slowing, a sign that the end could be near, Andrew Gross, AAA’s public relations manager, told McClatchy News.

“I’m still thinking this might be the week that the streak ends,” Gross said. “Last night was about the smallest price decline we’ve seen in a while, but down like 1/10 of a cent. Normally it’s fallen a couple of tenths of a cent to one penny.”

De Haan shared a similar view, pointing to factors nationwide that could disrupt the price decline streak and describing the streak’s future as “murky.”

“This week could change the downward trend,” De Haan said in the Sept. 19 post. “With some issues arising in Plains and Great Lakes states as the transition to winter gasoline begins, I think we have the best potential to see the weekly trend of falling prices snapped. West Coast states also continue to see increases as unexpected refinery issues continue to percolate, preventing a downward move.”

But what could make gas prices rise again? The future of prices rests on a number of factors, according to experts.

Consumer demand offers promising signs

The demand for gasoline has been unusually flat this year. High gas prices, overall inflation and persisting recession fears have driven adults in the United States to change their driving habits, according to a July AAA survey.

To put it another way: People have started driving less to combat rising prices.

Even as prices have come down, these habits have not reverted to the norm, Gross told McClatchy News.

And we shouldn’t expect to see that change anytime soon, according to Gross. Gasoline demand historically falls during the winter months, and the holidays don’t typically lead to any significant spikes in prices or demand, Gross said.

“People just generally drive less during the winter months because the days are shorter and darker and the weather’s crummier,” he said. “We haven’t seen a spike in prices around the holidays. Maybe some localized price increases depending on places where people are going for the holidays. Those places may see some temporary price increases just due to volume demand.”

If demand stays low, prices will likely also stay low. But the trend could be reversed if demand increases.

Hurricane season will play a role

Hurricane season is officially underway, lasting from June 1 to Nov. 30, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Despite early predictions that this year would see “above-average hurricane activity,” so far, there has not been significant damage to oil or gasoline production.

The quiet season is a “big deal” for gas production, according to Gross. If the trend continues, a “really weird hurricane season” could mean good news for consumers.

“[Hurricanes] have a terrible habit of going right for the oil industry,” Gross said. “While the refineries themselves might not be damaged, there could be localized flooding or the electrical grid could go down. And that just knocks the plant offline for a while so that could that puts pressure on oil prices, gasoline prices, if the refinery is not working, but we haven’t seen that yet.”

The future of gas prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts retail gasoline prices will average $3.60 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2022. That’s a few cents lower than this week’s national average, suggesting that prices will continue falling through the end of the year.

The administration forecasts an average of $3.61 per gallon in 2023.

As consumer demand, supply, weather patterns, the impact of war and the pandemic continue to fluctuate, though, gas prices will as well.

And those factors have left experts like Gross uncertain of what the future holds when it comes to gas prices.

“We’re kind of getting back to something more normal,” Gross said. “Since COVID started, everything has been weird. But what is normal anymore? It’s hard to tell.”

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