Freezing temperatures? Snow? Wind? Breaking down the weather forecast for Dolphins-Bills

For Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, the frigid conditions that await Miami for its Saturday night road game against the Buffalo Bills is a matter of the mind, not the body.

“You don’t really prepare for it,” he said Wednesday, “besides mentally deciding if it’s going to matter to you or not … It’s a mind-set as well. So to me, you just decide if you’re going to let it factor in or not and then you adjust as best you can.”

Later, the Dolphins practiced on their indoor field and increased the air conditioning to simulate colder conditions than they experience in South Florida.

However, it’s far from the inclement weather that awaits them at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, about 15 miles south of Buffalo.

Here is a breakdown of the weather forecast for Miami’s prime-time matchup against Buffalo.

How cold will it be?

The forecast continues to change by the day — and even, the hour — but one thing is for certain on Saturday night: it will be cold.

According to AccuWeather, the temperature around the 8:15 p.m. kickoff in Orchard Park will be 30 degrees, but it will feel like it’s 18 degrees. The temperature will reach a low of 26 degrees on Saturday night, according to the National Weather Service.

“By Buffalo standards, the temperature Saturday evening, that is pretty typical,” said Tom Kines, a senior meteorologist for The National Weather Service. “... It won’t be remembered as an Ice Bowl or anything like that.”

How windy will it be?

According to AccuWeather, winds around kickoff will be coming from the west-southwest at 12 mph with gusts of 17 mph.

Michael Fries, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said there would be “a noticeable breeze but it won’t be excessively windy.”

How much snow?

The Orchard Park area is expected to see a mix of rain and snow Thursday and Friday that transitions fully into snow Friday night and Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.

“At the very least, there will be snow showers during the game,” Kines said.

The chance of precipitation Saturday night is 100 percent, according to the National Weather Service, and it’s just a matter of how much falls at Highmark Stadium.

“If there is going to be any weather that affects the game, it’s going to be the snow,” Kines said.

Kines, however, said the snow accumulation is dependent on the presence of a lake effect.

What is Lake Effect Snow?

According to the National Weather Service, “Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into a narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more.”

Kines said it’s a bit difficult to project the exact location of the lake effect band — it’s highly dependent on wind direction — but it should be within 25 miles of the stadium.

“These lake effect bands that come in off the lake, they are usually very skinny, like 5, 10 miles wide,” Kines said. “So, somebody 10 miles from the stadium could be getting heavy snow and at the stadium, there could be nothing happened. At the very least during the game, there are going to be snow showers. And there is even the chance that the lake effect snow band at least affects the game for a time. It’s tough to say from this far out. It’s all about the wind direction. Just the slightest change in wind direction makes a big difference.

“If by chance the snow band does get to the stadium, these snow bands can bring snow an inch or two an hour.”

Why is the game still being played in Buffalo?

In Week 11, the NFL moved the Bills’ home game against the Cleveland Browns to Detroit after lake effect snow brought close to seven feet of snow over several days.

League spokesperson Brian McCarthy told ESPN that the change was made so that resources were not diverted from the community.

Fries said the lake-effect band was dropping up to six to seven inches of snow per hour, much different from the worst of what is expected in Buffalo and surrounding areas this weekend.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning, with projections of snow accumulation of over 9 inches for the entirety of Buffalo and areas south of it.

Kines said a few weeks ago, the air coming across the lakes was “unusually cold for this time of year,” which brought several feet of snow.

“Now the lakes have cooled some and the air mass that will be coming across the lakes is not a big deal by Buffalo standards or any city up and around the Great Lakes. Yes, there will be snow in some spots but it won’t be as [severe] as it was several weeks ago.”