Four important statewide storylines to watch on election night in Kentucky

There are going to be a lot of results from across the state rolling in on Tuesday night. A few are highly consequential for the whole state. Some could be close calls, too.

But even in electoral results that may not be so close, the margins could tell us something about the future of, say, progressives in Kentucky, state abortion policy, or Gov. Andy Beshear’s odds of getting reelected in 2023. Here are four trends to watch that could have a major impact on politics and policy in Kentucky.

Amendments top the list

Both amendments on the ballot this election cycle would radically change business in Frankfort. Amendment 1 would let the Kentucky legislature extend its regular sessions beyond their current mandatory end dates and call itself back to Frankfort for special sessions later in the year without the governor’s approval. Amendment 2 would change the wording of the Kentucky constitution to make clear there is no protected right to abortion, leaving abortion policy up to the currently GOP-controlled state legislature – this comes at a time when the state’s abortion ban is in effect and a case against it is set to be heard by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

The material effects of the votes are clear. But what might Kentuckians’ opinions about the amendments tell us about the future of abortion – and amendment – politics here?

Abortion has been a cornerstone of Republican messaging in Kentucky for decades. With state Democrats shifting to uniformly adopt more pro-abortion rights policy views, the GOP in recent cycles had relentlessly hit members of the Democratic Party over the head with attacks on those views. That’s not the case this cycle, and some Democrats think it means that the GOP has lost significant ground in the messaging war on the issue. It’s possible that a ‘no’ vote would lead Republicans to reevaluate or moderate their current policy – a trigger law banning all abortions, including those sought in cases of rape and incest – which some see as draconian. Or they could blame what they’ve characterized as misinformation from the other side, whose messaging attempts to connect the amendment to the trigger law.

A ‘yes’ vote, meanwhile, could reassure Republicans that the abortion policy they (as well as a handful of remaining socially conservative Democrats) support is indeed popular in Kentucky. It could also embolden the legislature to move forward with campaigning hard on anti-abortion stances as well as exploring more legislation that would limit access to abortion.

Another dynamic worth pointing out is, if Kentuckians reject both amendments, the General Assembly will be 1-for-4 on ballot initiative amendments in the last two cycles – Marsy’s Law being the exception. At any level of baseball, .250 is a middling batting average. Could leaders in the legislature cool down on putting such proposals in front of voters in the future?

Sizing up a ‘win’ for Dems and GOP in the state legislature

There are lots of interesting battles – many of them taking place in Central Kentucky – in the war for the size of Republican supermajorities in Frankfort. The GOP currently dominates the General Assembly with veto-proof 75-25 and 30-8 majorities in the House and Senate.

Democrats left some key Senate races uncontested. Much of the reason for that is because of uncertainty around new House and Senate maps published late in the game and perceived gerrymandering of those maps for Republican benefit. But they’re also eyeing a couple flips in their direction – two Central Kentucky House races come to mind, as well as a couple Louisville House races and one battle for former Democratic House leader Rocky Adkins’ seat in Eastern Kentucky. Still, Republicans argue that they’re on the offense in more districts than their counterparts.

“I feel like we’re going to grow our majorities in the House and probably the Senate, too. We feel we’re on the offense a lot more on the defense. We think it’s going to show on election night when we see 79, 80 Republican members,” House GOP Floor Leader Steven Rudy said.

That prediction would mean Democrats lose a net four or five seats in their 25-person House minority. Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents all across the map, including Rep. Patti Minter, D-Bowling Green, the lone remaining Democrat in the Central Time Zone, and the only two Eastern Kentucky House Democrats.

A good day for Democrats, given the frenzy of January redistricting, might still include the net loss of seats. But if they can beat Rudy’s prediction and retain a sizable number of their House members outside of Lexington and Louisville, that could be considered a strong showing given the circumstances.

In the Senate, Minority Floor Leader Reggie Thomas, D-Lexington, told the Herald-Leader that a “good day” would see Democrats in the Senate winning one of the races where they’re challenging seats held by Republicans – that would mean getting back to 30-8, since no Democrat stepped up to replace outgoing Sen. Dennis Parrett, D-Elizabethtown. A “great day” would see Democrats score more than one win in those contests, Thomas said.

What do margins show in national races?

Many Kentucky Democrats aren’t so confident that U.S. Senate candidate Charles Booker can beat GOP Sen. Rand Paul on Tuesday. But the results of that election, even if Booker loses, could give observers a read on how Kentuckians feel about an avowed progressive running statewide.

Booker has not secured nearly the amount of monetary support that moderate-branded Amy McGrath’s campaign against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got. She ended up losing by almost 20 percentage points. So a result that hovers around, or even surpasses, McGrath’s margin of victory might lend Kentucky progressives some wind in their sails. On the other hand, an significantly worse defeat could dampen the odds of someone as progressive as Booker running at the top of the statewide ticket again – granted, what we know of Paul’s approval rating in Kentucky is better than McConnell’s.

In Central Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, state Democrats have endorsed a write-in candidate and Andy Barr has proven difficult to beat in recent years, controversial Democratic candidate Geoff Young’s result could tell us whether or not he’d win another Democratic primary in the district. He’s run eight times before. What’s one more?

Another district rated “safe Republican” by the Cook Political Report is Northern Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District race, pitting GOP Rep. Thomas Massie against Democratic Challenger Matt Lehman. The last Democrat who ran against Massie lost by 34 points. Lehman’s performance against Massie, though widely expected to be a loss, could provide some insight into which direction Northern Kentucky, which played a role in delivering Gov. Andy Beshear’s 2019 win, is trending.

Judicial elections could be close, high-impact

Polling is scant everywhere in Kentucky, but judicial elections are a particularly glaring blind spot. There’s really no way to know if the three hottest judge races in the state – the 2nd and 6th districts of the Kentucky Supreme Court and Franklin Circuit Court – will even be close. But we do know that record amounts of money have been dumped into them, which is indicative of donors’ sense of competition.

The Kentucky Supreme Court is a seven-member body, and the two races identified above are seen by many as potentially close. In Northern Kentucky’s 6th District, GOP Rep. Joe Fischer has turned some heads because of the highly partisan nature of his campaign to unseat Justice Michelle Keller. Judicial elections are constitutionally required to be nonpartisan, but Fischer is attempting to appeal to a conservative district by linking himself with the Republican Party as much as possible. The Kentucky Judicial Conduct Committee was about to open an inquiry into Fischer’s campaign on this score, but a panel of US appeals judges blocked them from doing so after Fischer sued.

Conservative PACs are funding Fischer as well as Shawn Alcott in her bid to beat Court of Appeals Judge Kelly Thompson. Thompson and Alcott are both Bowling Green-based, and they’re running to replace Chief Justice John Minton in the 2nd District.

Franklin Circuit Court has seen more than a million dollars in total spending from current judge Phillip Shepherd, who’s running for a third term, and challenger Joe Bilby. The post is highly important because it’s a regular pitstop for legal challenges to legislation or lawsuits over state government matters. Many elected Republicans, who have expressed displeasure with Shepherd’s rulings in the past, are all-in on Bilby. Shepherd has raised nearly half a million dollars on his own, and PACs are pouring in money in the race on either side.