Formula 1 betting: Can Sergio Perez get his third win of 2022 at his home grand prix?

Could this be the weekend of Sergio Perez’s career?

The Red Bull driver has scored wins at Monaco and Singapore so far this season. And he heads to Sunday’s Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix (4 p.m. ET, ABC) at +500 to win the race.

Perez has five top 10s in six starts in his home country but his third-place finish in Mexico a season ago was his first podium finish. It was also his first start for Red Bull. His previous five starts had come with the team known as Force India and Racing Point.

With the constructor’s title clinched at the United States Grand Prix and Max Verstappen the world champion, Red Bull can focus even more on getting Perez his third win of the season and his first in his home country. And that’s reflected in the odds. Perez is the No. 3 favorite and has been entering races with odds that are the same as Lewis Hamilton’s. He’s comfortably ahead of Hamilton (+800) for Sunday’s race and right behind Charles Leclerc (+400).

Verstappen is still the clear favorite and the biggest roadblock to a Perez win. Verstappen (-155) has been significantly faster than Perez at tracks similar to the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and there’s no reason to believe he’ll lose that speed edge this weekend. Just look at what he did in Austin in his first race as the 2022 world champ.

Here are a few bets that we like ahead of the upcoming race weekend. We’re looking to bounce back from a rough USGP weekend ourselves. All odds are from BetMGM.

Any other driver other than Max Verstappen to win FP1 (-275)

Verstappen and Charles Leclerc are co-favorites to top the charts in the first practice at +170. We’ll take both Ferrari drivers and Perez against Verstappen on this one.

Both Ferrari drivers to finish in the top six (-225)

Ferrari has worse odds than both Red Bull and Mercedes thanks to the team’s strategy and reliability issues so far this season. We’re confident in a bounce back for Ferrari after Carlos Sainz’s first-lap issue in Austin.

Sergio Perez to finish top three (-125)

Perez has the third-best odds here behind Verstappen and Leclerc. We think the speed Red Bull will have down the extremely long front straight will pay off.

Sebastian Vettel to finish top 10 (-120)

We were slightly surprised at the speed Aston Martin had at the USGP and we think it’ll carry over at Mexico.

Both Red Bull drivers to finish in the top three (+140)

Since we’re betting Perez to finish in the top three we might as well pair it with this bet given Verstappen’s speed and his odds.