Will Florida now be red forever and ever? No, it’s still a swing state | Opinion

Florida made its unofficial debut as the nation’s largest swing state on election night in 2000, when NBC’s Tim Russert famously wrote three words, “Florida, Florida, Florida,” on a whiteboard and added, “It all comes down to Florida.”

And it did in that tumultuous year of hanging chads and Bush v. Gore. When Bush finally was declared the winner, some sulking Democrats played the role of election deniers, even though Al Gore, to his credit, had conceded — unlike the egomaniacal loser of 2020.

In presidential elections, Florida’s history of swinging — or lurching — from one party to the other is well established and often has been in concert with the nation’s own mood swings.

Consider: In all but four of the 25 presidential elections of the past 100 years, the national winner carried Florida. It’s an outcome that prevailed through recent history — right up until 2020.

Democrat Bill Clinton won Florida, and the nation, in 1996. Republican George W. Bush did so in 2000 and 2004. Democrat Barack Obama won both in 2008 and 2012. And Donald Trump carried Florida in 2016.

Then came 2020, when Trump carried Florida, but lost nationwide. Was this a harbinger? An omen of a sea change in Florida politics? Have the Republicans finally conquered Florida to the degree that its swinging days are over?

That’s a question being asked in the wake of Tuesday’s election results. While in some states the predicted “red wave” was more like a splash, Florida’s GOP handily won every single statewide race, from governor and cabinet to the U.S. Senate.

They also hold a commanding majority in both houses of the Legislature. Even the Florida Supreme Court, though officially nonpartisan, now has a conservative majority that’s far less likely to overturn laws passed by that Legislature.

With political junkies nationwide already turning their attention to the 2024 race for the White House, some pundits are beginning to wonder whether Florida will continue to be the up-for-grabs state shown in purple on those TV maps where Texas is reliably red while New York and California are predictably blue.

Meanwhile, as if to suggest that Tuesday’s results are not a fluke, this year in Florida the number of voters registered as Republicans surpassed the number of registered Democrats.

Is that the proverbial nail in the Democrats’ coffin? In the words of Coach Lee Corso on ESPN’s “College Gameday” when he disagrees with a fellow panelist’s predictions, “Not so fast, my friend.”

Truth be told, the GOP sweep of state offices was not so much a reflection of daunting Republican strength as it was a symptom of the Florida Democrats’ endemic problems.

This year Florida’s Democrats fielded weak candidates. They emphasized the wrong issues. They lost ground with Hispanics, formerly one of their most reliable blocs. The national party, perhaps sensing a lost cause, provided little help — unless you consider campaign stops by President Biden to be helpful.

Moreover, the Democrats were up against a GOP ticket led by a popular governor seeking a second term. Florida has only allowed incumbent governors to seek a second consecutive term since 1968. In the past 50 years, only two incumbent governors failed to get a second term.

One was this year’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, who in 2010 decided that he’d rather run for the U.S. Senate than continue as Florida’s governor.

The other was Republican Gov. Bob Martinez, who in 1990 lost to moderate Democrat Lawton Chiles. Nowadays “moderate Democrat” seems like an oxymoron, given the party’s shunning of loyal moderates such a Joe Manchin while fawning over various leftists adored in New York and Hollywood.

Tellingly, some pundits strongly believe that if Democratic Congresswoman Gwen Graham, a moderate, had been her party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2018 rather than Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, she would have won.

If so, she’d now be planning her second term in office as the state’s first female governor while Ron DeSantis would be a line in a compilation of election returns instead of a viable presidential hopeful.

Nobody can change the past, although many try to rewrite it. However, many working together can change the future. A hopeful sign: the gains in the number of Florida’s registered voters with no party affiliation (NPAs) have outpaced the major parties’ gains

In the latest tallies, 36% of Florida’s voters are registered as Republicans, 35% as Democrats and 29% as NPAs or minor party registrants, up from fewer than 10% in 1972.

Moreover, only 35% of the Republicans are 50 years of age or younger while 45% of the Democrats and a whopping 57% of the NPAs are in that younger age group. Indeed, 35% of the Republicans are 65 or older.

Given this large and rapidly growing number of swing voters, it is premature to declare that Florida is no longer a potential swing state. So, at least for now, those maps, may still paint the Sunshine State in a lovely shade of purple.

Robert F. Sanchez, of Tallahassee, is a former member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. He writes for the Herald’s conservative opinion newsletter, Right to the Point. It’s weekly, and it’s free. To subscribe, go to miamiherald.com/righttothepoint.