Five things we learned in Pierce County from WA’s initial general election results

Finally, the hand wringing can end. The incessant TV ads can stop. Shortly after 8 p.m. Tuesday night, initial results from Washington’s 2022 general election poured in, providing a glimpse into the mind of the state electorate and, in some cases, a preview of what we can expect in the coming days as winners and losers are officially declared.

In Pierce County, here are a few things we learned.

Red wave?

Midterm elections are historically cruel for the political party that holds the White House. Add in record inflation, high crime, backbreaking gas prices and Joe Biden’s dismal approval rating, and it’s no wonder many pundits and prognosticators predicted a massive red wave.

Nationally, that’s not exactly what unfolded Tuesday. Hours after voting closed in Washington, the infamous New York Times election needle had control of the U.S. House trending Republican, but far less so than expected. The balance of power in the Senate was still a tossup, with Democrats performing better than many anticipated. Overall, it was unquestionably a good night for the left, given the low expectations.

Ah, but what about in Pierce County? Would the predicted red wave reach our shores?

Based on initial returns, it was a weak crimson ripple, at best.

Two years ago Democrats won a majority on the Pierce County Council for the first time in nearly two decades, and it’s an advantage the party appears poised to hold onto when the next council is sworn in. In the most hotly contested County Council race on the ballot — and with the only seat Republicans held a legitimate shot of flipping at stake — Democrat Robyn Denson carved out a sizable lead against Paula Lonergan. Denson will almost certainly replace outgoing council chair Derek Young, representing parts of North Tacoma along with the Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula area. Given Democrat Marty Campbell’s initial lead in the left-leaning District 5, Pierce County Democrats found themselves in a favorable position Tuesday night.

The scene was similar elsewhere. Although there were reasons for Republicans to celebrate — including likely state House wins by incumbents Michelle Caldier, Kelly Chambers and Cyndy Jacobsen, all of which were expected — mostly, Pierce County’s status quo was on its way to prevailing. Overall, visions of Republicans seizing power in Olympia proved to be a partisan fantasy.

Which brings us to …

The fate of Jesse Young?

Few races on the Pierce County ballot have been as closely watched or expensive as the 26th District state Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Emily Randall and Republican challenger Jesse Young. And for good reason: state Republicans harbored hopes of flipping the balance of power in the state Senate, as you may have heard, and this is a seat they needed for that to happen. Since Randall’s victory in 2018 was razor-thin, coming down to roughly 100 votes, there was plenty of reason to believe victory was possible.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the mailbox or ballot drop box, it seems. Either Randall’s vulnerability was overstated or voters simply realized that Young’s particular brand of MAGA politics was too toxic to support, even in a district with plenty of conservative voters.

On second thought, it was probably both.

The result: a roughly 2,500 vote lead for Randall on Tuesday night.

Tiffany Smiley’s appeal?

In many ways, the candidacy of Tiffany Smiley was a test. Would the current state of the country and all the serious issues that plague us — like the skyrocketing price of groceries and the crisis of homelessness on our streets — compel voters to oust a senior member of the U.S. Senate like Patty Murray? Could simply attaching Murray’s name to things people don’t like — like Patty Murray’s inflation, and Patty Murray’s crime spike and Patty Murray’s Russell Wilson — really be enough to turn the tide?

Statewide, on election night the answer was a resounding no. While some suggested the race was tightening in recent weeks, Murray’s 15-percentage-point first-night advantage over Smiley was enough for several major outlets to call the race before the kids were in bed. Despite all the drama and the competing polls, Washington’s original mom in tennis shoes will be heading back to D.C. for another term, comfortably.

In Pierce County, the election night score was similar, which is likely a moderate surprise to some — especially considering Republican Bruce Dammeier has now twice been elected executive in countywide votes. While everyone and their uncle predicted Murray would cruise in ultra-blue King County, Pierce County is a different beast, with plenty of staunchly conservative areas outside of Tacoma.

Still, initial results from the Pierce County Auditor’s office showed Murray besting Smiley by nearly 7 percentage points here. Murray was also ahead of Smiley in Snohomish County, effectively sweeping the state’s three largest counties.

I guess all those Smiley TV ads I’ve suffered through on football Sunday weren’t terribly effective. Who could have guessed?

Melanie Morgan’s vulnerability?

Melanie Morgan’s political career is an inspiring success story. A former Franklin Pierce School Board member with experience dealing with so many of the challenges our communities face — including homelessness and the real-life impacts of systemic racism — Morgan successfully took down embattled Democratic lawmaker David Sawyer in 2018 the primary on her way to securing a state House seat in the 29th Legislative District. In the years that have followed, she’s gone on to establish herself as a vocal and well-respected member of Pierce County’s delegation.

That’s why the findings of a recent workplace conduct investigation into Morgan’s behavior while serving as chair of the state’s Social Equity in Cannabis Task Force were so jarring. As the Associated Press reported, the investigation concluded that Morgan “engaged in abusive and bullying conduct” while on the job, including engaging in retaliatory actions against a task force policy analyst. Morgan disputes the investigation findings and has filed a formal appeal with the House Executive Rules Committee.

The report was released to the public in October, giving voters in the 29th District plenty of time to mull their options before the general election. Republican Brett Johnson provided the alternative, campaigning, in large part, on a pledge to lead a statewide effort to reduce crime and increase public safety in places like Tacoma.

Based on first-night election returns, it seems voters were either willing to look past the investigation into Morgan’s alleged behavior or, perhaps just as likely in a left-leaning district, still firmly support her and weren’t going to vote for Johnson one way or another.

Despite the criticism and questions Morgan has faced over the last month, on Tuesday night the incumbent maintained a strong 14-percentage-point lead.

Parks, cops and schools?

It wouldn’t be a local election without parks, cops and schools being on the ballot.

In University Place, voters got a chance to weigh in on a proposition that would enact a property tax hike of $22 a month for the average homeowner to fund the hiring of additional law enforcement officers and community outreach specialists to help address growing public safety concerns. While public safety and making sure there are enough cops on the street are a top concern for many voters, increasing taxes is always a tough sell. Initial results from University Place bear this out; the city’s Proposition 1 was passing by the slimmest of margins Tuesday night, just over 100 votes.

In Puyallup, the school district’s $125 million capital levy made a return to the ballot, after failing to win a simple majority in a special election earlier this year. This time around, the early results were similar; the levy was failing by roughly 1,000 votes Tuesday night. With votes to count in the coming days, school district spokesperson Sarah Gillispie told The News Tribune that the district remains “cautiously optimistic and hopeful.” Reality suggests it will be a tough hole for the capital levy to climb out of. Sorry, kids.

Finally, Tacoma voters were asked to approve a parks and recreation maintenance levy, restoring parks funding to previous levels. At a cost of roughly $12 more dollars a month for the average Tacoma homeowner, the proposition appeared well on its way to being approved Tuesday night, enjoying a sizable 25-percentage-point lead.