Five bold predictions and game-by-game picks for Kansas State’s 2022 football season

Whenever a team ends its season with a bowl victory, returning players like to talk about momentum.

Such was the case at Kansas State after the Wildcats dismantled LSU 42-20 at the Texas Bowl last January. Winter workouts were more competitive than usual. Spring practice was more fun. Everyone was ready for preseason camp.

Extra levels of excitement were to be expected, seeing as how K-State hadn’t previously won a bowl game since 2017. Question is: can the Wildcats keep the good vibes going when the season begins on Saturday against South Dakota, and beyond?

There’s no better time to make a few predictions.

Here are five bold predictions for K-State’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.

1. K-State will beat its over/under wins total

Anyone looking to make a futures bet when sports wagering goes live later this week in the Sunflower State should seriously consider K-State football. The oddsmakers have set the Wildcats’ over/under wins total at 6 1/2, a number that seems curiously low for a team that returns more preseason all-conference players than anyone else in the Big 12. ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly gives K-Sate a 64% chance of winning seven or more games. Chris Klieman has guided K-State to regular-season records of 8-4 and 7-5 during his two non-COVID years in Manhattan. This is the most talented roster of his tenure. A run at 10 victories doesn’t seem out of the question. It will be a disappointment if this team only wins seven games. But that would still be enough for gamblers to cash in on an over bet.

2. Deuce Vaughn will be a Heisman contender

By that I mean he will finish in the top 10 of final Heisman Trophy voting the same way Iowa State’s Breece Hall did a year ago. Winning the Heisman is a near impossible task that requires a player to not only be excellent at football, but to also play for a playoff team and benefit from national media exposure. Vaughn is unlikely to benefit from that perfect storm. But he does have the goods to be considered. Vaughn has already amassed 3,093 yards and scored 31 touchdowns for the Wildcats. He has also already been named a consensus All-American. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will look to feature him even more this season. He should put up impressive numbers that will be hard for Heisman voters to ignore.

3. Phillip Brooks will emerge as K-State’s best receiver

It’s exciting to think about what Brooks can do in Collin Klein’s offense this season. The senior wide receiver caught a team-high five passes for 69 yards in the Texas Bowl and should continue to do more of the same now that he has Adrian Martinez looking his way. Brooks should be open quite often on underneath routes and crossing patterns as defenses try to keep tabs on Malik Knowles and Deuce Vaughn. He may even challenge for 1,000 yards, something that hasn’t been done by a K-State receiver since Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton in 2013.

4. Nebraska will miss Adrian Martinez. Not the other way around

It’s hard to see Adrian Martinez topping the numbers he produced at Nebraska last season (2,863 passing yards, 525 rushing yards and 27 total touchdowns), but his turnovers are bound to drop in K-State’s system and that will lead to his most well-rounded year of college football. Martinez was pressured on nearly half of his drop backs last season and he often tried to do too much in an offense that lacked other playmakers. The plan is for him to be more of a distributor with the Wildcats. If he does that, and stays healthy, he will be a transfer success story.

5. Nate Matlack will become a star on defense

Matlack appears ready to build off the 3.5 sacks and 17 tackles he recorded as a reserve last season. The 6-foot-5 and 245-pound defensive end impressed K-State coaches enough at preseason camp to earn a starting nod opposite of pass-rush extraordinaire Felix Anudike-Uzomah. That is an excellent position for him to be in. As offenses focus on stopping Anudike-Uzomah, that could open up extra opportunities for Matlack. Don’t be surprised if he takes advantage and pushes Anudike-Uzomah as the team’s sack leader.

2022 schedule and game-by-game predictions

Sept. 3 vs. South Dakota (6 p.m. on ESPN+): The Coyotes won seven games last season. They also qualified for the FCS playoffs and pushed Kansas to the brink before falling 17-14 in their lone game against a FBS opponent. As far as guarantee foes go, they aren’t bad. Still, South Dakota is not on K-State’s level. The Wildcats should roll in their opener. Klieman doesn’t lose to FCS teams. His all-time record against them is 69-6. All eyes will be on Adrian Martinez and Collin Klein’s new offense. Will they pick up where they left off at the Texas Bowl? K-State 41, South Dakota 13.

Sept. 10 vs. Missouri (11 a.m. on ESPN2): Eliah Drinkwitz has been a better recruiter than a coach so far with the Tigers. His teams have gone 11-12 the past two seasons and more of the same is expected this year, before the young talent on this roster develops. By no means will this be a gimme for the Wildcats. Hosting a SEC team should test K-State in ways it wasn’t in Week 1. Nevertheless, this is a game they should win if they have hopes of being a sleeper team in the Big 12. K-State 30, Missouri 23.

Sept. 17 vs. Tulane (2 p.m. on ESPN+): The Green Wave are coming off their worst season (2-10) under coach Willie Fritz. They are hoping for a bounce back, and it might happen with 15 returning starters. But it’s incredibly unlikely they will throw a scare into the Wildcats on the road. Their uniforms (baby blue and green) and their logo (an angry green wave holding a megaphone) will be fun to see, though. K-State 45, Tulane 9.

Sept. 24 at Oklahoma: Klieman has led K-State to a road victory over Oklahoma before. Up until last season, he was actually undefeated against the Sooners. He could recreate that magic in this year’s conference opener, but it won’t be easy. New OU coach Brent Venables used to play and coach for the Wildcats. You know he is going to be fired up for this game. Quarterback play could decide this one. Oklahoma will be breaking in UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel. K-State will be bringing along Martinez. Time to learn who is ready for the Big 12. Oklahoma 35, K-State 30.

Oct. 1 vs. Texas Tech: The Wildcats have owned few times more than the Red Raiders in recent years. They have won six straight against Texas Tech and 11 of 12 in the series. The pendulum is unlikely begin swinging the other way this season. K-State 38, Texas Tech 28.

Oct. 8 at Iowa State: The last time K-State visited Ames the Wildcats got humiliated 45-0. The odds of that happening again are slim, if not none, now that Breece Hall, Brock Purdy and some elite tight ends are in the NFL. The Cyclones still have Xavier Hutchinson and Will McDonald to make things difficult. And they’re always dangerous at home. But the Wildcats should be the better team. This could be a swing game for both teams. K-State 24, Iowa State 21.

Oct. 22 at TCU: How quickly can Sonny Dykes get things turned around in Fort Worth? Here’s guessing it will take more than one season. Expect Klieman to improve his record to 4-0 against the Horned Frogs. K-State 27, TCU 20.

Oct. 29 vs. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are a difficult team to project. They only return four starters from a prolific defense, which is obviously not good. But they return first-team All Big 12 quarterback Spencer Sanders and the majority of their offensive line, which are both big positives. Here’s guessing K-State can finally move the ball against the Cowboys. In any case, this will be a major test for the Wildcats. This game starts a three-week stretch against teams that Klieman has never beaten. K-State 28, Oklahoma State 27.

Nov. 5 vs. Texas: Has Martinez figured out how to win close games with his new team? Is Quinn Ewers playing like a former No. 1 recruit or has Texas switched quarterbacks to Hudson Card? This is an impossible game to project this far out. But the Longhorns always give the Wildcats fits. They have won five straight in this series. Texas 35, K-State 28.

Nov. 11 at Baylor: This feels like the hardest game on the entire schedule. The Bears won the Big 12 last season, and the Wildcats have to play them on the road late in the year. Baylor 36, K-State 21.

Nov. 19 at West Virginia: All five starters on the offensive line return for the Mountaineers and JT Daniels is the new starter at quarterback. Every other position feels like a question mark. Morgantown has been unkind to the Wildcats in recent years, but the Wildcats will be motivated here coming off a loss. K-State 30, West Virginia 20.

Nov. 26 vs. Kansas: The Wildcats have won 13 straight games in the Sunflower Showdown, and there is no reason to expect that streak to end now. K-State 45, KU 21.

Final Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12).