Tesla earnings preview: Investors eye chip shortages, factory updates after record deliveries

Emily McCormick

Tesla (TSLA) is poised to report second-quarter results after market close on Monday, offering an update on factory build-outs and new vehicle production timelines after the company posted record deliveries for the June quarter.

Here are the main results Tesla is expected to post for the three months ended in June, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Revenue: $11.37 billion vs. $6.04 billion Y/Y

  • Adjusted earnings per share: 97 cents vs. 44 cents Y/Y

Tesla, like other automakers and technology companies, has been contending with a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions, as elevated demand during the economic recovery outstripped supply. In the first quarter, Tesla said it was "able to navigate through global chip supply shortage issues in part by pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers."

Despite these issues, however, Tesla pulled off record second-quarter deliveries, handing over 201,250 vehicles and producing 206,421. Both metrics more than doubled over the same period in 2020.

These results also came as Tesla grappled with other issues in recent months, including increased scrutiny in its key market of China. In late June, China issued a voluntary recall of more than 285,000 Tesla cars in the country, citing alleged safety concerns over driver-assistance systems in the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles manufactured out of the company's Shanghai Gigafactory. Tesla vehicles were also banned at some Chinese government compounds on allegations that the cars could send data to the U.S.

Tesla's stock rise has cooled so far in 2021 after a record run-up last year, with shares falling nearly 8% so far for the year-to-date after surging by 743% in 2020.

"After a Cinderella story ride last year for Tesla (and the bulls), this year shares have underperformed as the trifecta of: 1) increasing EV competition, 2) China PR/safety issues negatively impacting demand, and 3) the chip shortage overhang," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note. "With all of these headwinds, Tesla still impressively hit 200k+ deliveries in the June quarter and appear to be on a trajectory to possibly hit 900k for the year with a stronger 2H on the horizon."

Ives added that he still believes China will comprise about 40% of Tesla's global deliveries next year and remains a "linchpin" to the firm's bullishness on the company.

Tesla's earnings release and call will likely also come with updates around the company's forthcoming factories in Berlin and Austin, Texas. Last quarter, the company said it remained "on track to begin production and deliveries from each location in 2021." It also said that Tesla's battery-electric semi-truck deliveries would begin this year, though the surprise departure of Jerome Guillen, the executive leading the development of the Tesla Semi, in June has raised some uncertainty about that timeline.

Another focal point for investors will be the quality of Tesla's earnings this quarter. During the first three months of the year, Tesla's profits got a major boost from factors outside of core vehicle sales, with proceeds from sales of environmental credits and bitcoin holdings totaling in the hundreds of millions.

Tesla cited a $101 million "positive impact" from bitcoin sales in the first quarter but still held more than $1 billion worth of the cryptocurrency as of March. The future of the company's handling of bitcoin will also be in focus on Monday, with CEO Elon Musk flip-flopping over whether to accept the tokens for vehicle purchases amid environmental concerns over cryptocurrency mining. But in terms of holdings, Musk said at least as of mid-May that Tesla had not sold its bitcoin, despite suspending the crypto payments for cars at the time.

This post will be updated with the results of Tesla's second-quarter earnings Monday after market close. Check back for updates.

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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