Final week: How can Jacksonville-area teams get off bubble, into FHSAA football playoffs?

One week to go -- and the pressure is on.

After the Florida High School Athletic Association released its penultimate set of rankings for football, Northeast Florida's teams now have a clearer picture of where they stand in the race to extend their 2023 seasons into the playoffs.

Some have clinched playoff berths automatically by winning their district championships. Others are assured of one of the at-large berths -- four per region per class in Classes 2M, 3M, 4M, 2S, 3S and 4S, and two each in 1M and 1S -- based on their standing in the FHSAA's ranking formula.

But for those on the bubble, a list that includes the likes of Creekside, Middleburg and Ribault, that picture won't turn crystal clear until the FHSAA announces its playoff bracket at 10 a.m. Sunday.

See where Jacksonville-area teams stack up with one week to go. Note that the list does not include independent programs, some of which are still participating in the Sunshine State Athletic Association postseason tournaments.

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Automatic berths as district champions

Mandarin (7-2, District 1-4M), First Coast (5-4, District 1-3M), Raines (7-2, District 1-2M), Bolles (5-4, District 2-2M), Riverside (7-2, District 3-2M), Trinity Christian (6-3, District 1-1M), Columbia (4-4, District 3-3S), St. Augustine (8-0, District 4-3S), Baker County (6-3, District 5-2S), Bradford (9-0, District 6-2S)

District to be decided

District 4-4S: Nease (6-3) wins by defeating Tocoi Creek Friday. If Nease loses, the district becomes a three-way tie to be determined by FHSAA ranking, which potentially benefits Ponte Vedra (7-2).

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At-large locks based on FHSAA ranking

Baldwin (5-4, District 5-2S), Bishop Kenny (5-4, District 2-2M), Fort White (8-1, Region 3-1A), Hilliard (3-6, Region 3-1R), Palatka (7-2, District 6-2S), Ponte Vedra (7-2, District 4-4S), Providence (7-2, District 1-1M), Suwannee (6-2, District 2-4S), Union County (5-3, Region 3-1A), University Christian (5-4, District 1-1M), White (5-4, District 2-2M), Yulee (7-2, District 5-2S)

Teams on the bubble, and what they need

Creekside (5-4, District 3-4S)

Currently seventh in Region 1-4S (8.551)

Seventh place might not be good enough for the Knights. The reason? Two teams below them in the regional rankings, Lynn Haven Mosley and (potentially) Nease, are due for automatic bids as district champions. So Creekside backers will be not only cheering on the Knights against Ponte Vedra: They'll be pulling hard for Tocoi Creek to topple Nease, which would likely redirect the District 4-4S title to Ponte Vedra. If Tocoi Creek doesn't beat Nease, then Creekside must hope a victory over Ponte Vedra provides enough of a strength-of-schedule boost to overtake Pace (7-2, 8.897 points), which ends against TDH Academy.

Episcopal (4-5, District 2-2M)

Currently seventh in Region 1-2M (-0.851)

Most likely, the Eagles are in, pending their Week 11 trip to Lakeland Victory Christian. Kicker Alexander Hillyard and explosive two-way athlete Omarr Dixon lead the way for Episcopal, which should be safe unless they lose and both Jackson and Ribault win.

Fletcher (6-3, District 1-3M).

Currently sixth in Region 1-3S (5.905)

Last week's overtime loss to First Coast spoiled the Senators' hopes of an automatic bid, but they're still in line for an at-large regional slot. As long as they beat Atlantic Coast at Jack Taylor Stadium and Wekiva doesn't pull off the upset against Apopka, Fletcher should beplayoff-bound.

Jackson (3-6, District 1-2M)

Currently eighth in Region 1-2M (-1.450)

Strength of schedule, including their Sept. 29 win (26-20) over Ribault, keeps the Tigers in the hunt despite their 3-6 record. But they've been outscored 118-30 in their last three games and now face another playoff-bound foe in District 1-3M champion First Coast. If the Tigers lose and Ribault beats Riverside, Jackson could get bumped.

Keystone Heights (5-4, District 6-2S).

Currently seventh in Region 2-2S (-0.870)

With a forfeit win over Pierson Taylor and a rout of Joshua Christian, Keystone is knocking on the door of the playoffs. Victory against P.K. Yonge would make it official, although depending on results elsewhere, they may not even need that.

Middleburg (4-5, District 3-3S).

Currently eighth in Region 1-3S (2.837).

It's a tense week for the Broncos after a turnover-plagued loss to Orange Park. Victory against Fernandina Beach probably still gets the job done, but a loss could open the door for several other teams.

Nease (6-3, District 4-4S).

Currently eighth in Region 1-4S (7.485).

Simple enough: Win and they're in. If the Panthers don't win, their FHSAA ranking won't get them in because Lynn Haven Mosley is assured of a berth as District 2-4S champion.

Playoff long shots: need win and help

Atlantic Coast (4-5, District 1-3M)

Currently eighth in Region 1-4M (1.125)

Though technically eighth in the region, the Stingrays have a problem: Orlando Boone, with a lower ranking, is guaranteed a playoff spot for winning District 4-4M. Do the Stingrays have too much ground (1.7 points) to make up in the computer formula? They must beat Fletcher, hope Hagerty loses to Oviedo and wait for a big shift in the numbers.

Clay (4-5, District 4-3S)

Currently 13th in Region 1-3S (0.217)

A four-game losing skid has likely torpedoed the Blue Devils' chances. They must not only beat Oakleaf but also get help from losses involving Middleburg, Menendez, Fort Walton Beach (vs. Crestview) and Tallahassee Rickards (vs. Madison County). Even then, it might not be enough.

Fernandina Beach (3-6, District 5-2S)

Currently eighth in Region 2-2S (-2.737)

The Pirates are eighth in the regional ranking but wouldn't get the eighth seed, because District 8-2S champion Port Orange Atlantic has an automatic bid. To qualify, Fernandina Beach must beat Middleburg and hope Keystone loses to P.K. Yonge, although the rating point swing still might leave the Pirates on the outside.

Menendez (4-5, District 3-3S)

Currently ninth in Region 1-3S (1.832).

The Falcons were the big mover last week by knocking off Matanzas, as the numbers keep rising for freshman QB Cash Downey and a young Menendez roster. To qualify as an at-large team, they likely need a win against Yulee coupled with a Middleburg loss to Fernandina Beach.

Orange Park (4-5, District 3-3S)

Currently 12th in Region 1-3S (0.332)

A big night from Jermel Brown and the defense restored hope for the Raiders, but their postseason chances aren't great. The road to the playoff requires not only a win over Fleming Island but also losses by Middleburg, Menendez, Fort Walton Beach and Rickards.

Ribault (4-5, District 1-2M)

Currently ninth in Region 1-4S (-2.718)

Can the Trojans squeeze in? Last week's win against Baldwin gives them a chance. But they'll have to overcome Riverside on Friday night while playing on neutral turf at Paxon, in a contest the Trojans lost last year. Ribault also needs First Coast to beat Jackson.

Tocoi Creek (5-4, District 3-4S).

Currently 11th in Region 1-4M (5.920).

Can the Toros really hurdle three teams to qualify? Unlikely, but maybe not impossible. They'll have to beat Nease, hope for Creekside to stumble against Ponte Vedra and hope Chiles slips up against 1-8 Sunlake -- unless victory over Nease provides enough of a point swing to leapfrog Chiles. Whatever the outcome, Tocoi Creek has shown promise in its first year in the large-school class.

Teams out of playoff contention

Englewood (5-4, District 1-3M), Fleming Island (2-7, District 3-4S), Oakleaf (2-6, District 3-4S), Parker (1-8, District 1-3M), Ridgeview (1-8, District 3-3S), Sandalwood (0-9, District 1-4M), West Nassau (3-7, District 5-2S), Westside (0-9, District 3-2M), Wolfson (3-6, District 2-2M)

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: High school football playoff race: Jacksonville Week 11 bubble watch