Fantasy Football: Can you win a 2023 league using a Zero RB draft strategy?

This article is going to make a lot of fantasy managers uncomfortable. That’s not the goal, though. The end game is to find comfort in discomfort. Staring convention in the face — and laughing.

We’re talking Zero RB, and some Harry Potter fans might compare it to the Dark Arts. This is the draft strategy that fantasy managers would not dare speak of. How do you consider skipping taking a running back in the early rounds?

Isn’t that the most important position in fantasy football?

Well, this is a contrarian strategy that got its roots in 2013 when Shawn Siegele introduced it in a RotoViz article. The idea was shocking to some, but when employed on championship teams, Siegele’s brainchild had to be considered. Over the past few years, it has started gaining popularity, and this year may be a good one to test it out if current Yahoo ADP stays around where it is.

Part of it came from years of drafting running backs in the first couple of rounds, and then seeing fantasy seasons tanked because of injuries. Wide receivers seemingly appear to be healthier, which made them more attractive because they kept playing and putting up fantasy points while injured running backs put up zeros.

Just last year, 17 running backs were taken in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts via ADP. Of those, eight missed at least one game. With just 17 games on the schedule, each missed opportunity is massive. On top of it, when comparing running backs and wide receivers’ injuries, there is more reason to consider a Zero RB strategy.

In his recently released "Injury [Pro]ne Draft Guide & Playbook," Dr. Edwin Porras found that since 2013, 47% of wide receivers missed no games in a season due to injury. By comparison, just 36% of running backs were able to have completely healthy seasons. Even more concerning is the number of games missed by those who tote the football and run into massive defensive linemen and linebackers.

The top two wide receivers by ADP missed, on average, 1.8 games due to injury. The top two running backs missed 4.8 games because the injuries they suffer are often more severe.

If the goal is to win at fantasy football, then having the best and highest-drafted players on fantasy rosters available has to be the end game.

Quarterbacks are fully running the league now. Last year, there were nine quarterbacks who passed for 4,000-plus yards. In 2002, that number was just four. Pass catchers have followed suit, as last year there were seven who amassed more than 300 PPR points — Travis Kelce included — and just four running backs surpassed that mark. There were twice as many running backs hitting the 300-point club in 2002.

The latter stat is also due to the increasing number of running back committees employed league-wide. We’ve talked about that before, but with so few lead running backs touching the ball 20-plus times, why force the issue early in drafts when a wideout (or Kelce) could catch six passes and surpass 100 yards and score a touchdown?

How to Zero RB in 2023

Now, the idea is not to ignore running backs altogether when employing Zero RB. Most Yahoo leagues set the standard at two starting running back slots, so you have to draft them sometime. And several in reserve. It’s when the running backs are picked that makes this strategy wonky, yet intriguing.

I sat down with fantasy analysts and Zero RB zealots Kevin Tompkins and Dan Turner recently on my "Familia FFB" podcast and picked their brains on Zero RB strategy. They each talked about the fragility of the running back position, and how it led them to want to make the drastic change.

Current ADP seems to be playing into a Zero RB approach, or at least the Hero RB, where fantasy managers take a single running back early and then hit the rest of their roster.

(WRITER'S NOTE:This is my preferred strategy and I talked about it with Britt Flinn of Fantasy Alarm here).

In my recent RB Dead Zone article, I pointed out that 14 running backs were selected in the first two rounds each of the last three seasons. That ADP figure is now down to just nine after recent signings by Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott pushed a few runners out of the second round.

Here’s where it can get uncomfortable for some fantasy managers, who for years have developed the practice to go RB-RB in the first couple rounds. It can be a drastic switch to go WR-WR in that range, and then hitting the wideouts even more. The good news is current rankings are pushing the running backs further down into the RB Dead Zone and beyond, making it easier to get value picks later.

On a team utilizing a Zero RB approach for a starting roster that is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, a team could fill all non-RB starting roster slots in the first six rounds before drafting a back. Some may even get a bench player before a running back.

That could mean seven picks before drafting a running back. In a 12-team league, that means waiting until the mid-80s.

What are the draft-day targets, other than wideouts? Well, a top-notch quarterback is one. Even if a fantasy manager doesn’t snag one of the big three of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen by the early third round, other top guns like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are available through the end of the fifth round. Getting an elite player early is easier when running backs are being pushed down draft boards.

Imagine pairing Mahomes with Travis Kelce. Or Jackson with Mark Andrews. That’s easier to execute in the Zero RB build. Having elite talent at the single-player positions like quarterback and tight end becomes quite valuable the later the season goes, and is daunting for opponents in the playoffs.

The later drafts go, it can be easy to default to filling a WR spot. Look at the Jets recently signing Dalvin Cook (ADP: 71.5), who is going before 2022 1,000-yard receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Godwin. That’s just one of many examples where it’s easy to default to grabbing a wideout, or another position before attacking running back.

Attacking is a good word to describe the strategy because once fantasy managers start taking running backs, it’s a good idea to take a bunch before the end of the draft. If waiting to draft until the seventh round in a 15-round draft, that’s only nine turns to grab about five running backs. If going elite QB or TE early, it’s easy to bypass a backup and grab an extra back. The quantity is key, because then fantasy managers can almost take a DFS approach to finding the best weekly running back duo with the most inviting matchups.

Rookies become more important to keep an eye on, as first-year running backs Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Allgeier, Rachaad White, Dameon Pierce and Brian Robinson were helpful at various points in 2022. We’ll get into rookies to target in a future article.

And it doesn’t stop at the draft, because choosing the dark arts of Zero RB is a full-season endeavor. The waiver wire must be scoured weekly for any players who could be injury replacements and get an increase in playing time.

Late-round RB targets for a 2023 Zero RB build

Here are a few players to target after the first six rounds are complete, who could either become lead running backs or attractive players in good matchups. Also, keep in mind running backs with any pass-catching ability are excellent for this strategy. (Player ADP is in parenthesis.)

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (81.6)

White got an injury scare over the weekend but is back at practice and is a late-round option who can see an RB1 workload. White saw 129 carries and caught 50 balls, but Leonard Fournette has left Tampa after compiling 262 touches last year. With the Bucs only adding undrafted free agent Sean Tucker to a running back room including Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, it appears a heavy workload is waiting for White.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills (87.8)

Cook has an excellent opportunity, as he has the best hands in the Bills’ running back room, which lost Devin Singletary who left behind 52 targets. Cook also has an explosive run rate of 12.4%, which was the highest of any running back in the league with more than 80 rush attempts, according to Fantasy Points Data.

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders (96.2)

Robinson is healthy after recovering from a gunshot wound to play in 12 games and compile 205 carries and 797 rushing yards. This could be a committee with Antonio Gibson, but OC Eric Bieniemy did favor Isiah Pacheco on early downs last year; Robinson fits a similar big-back profile.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (103.7)

Herbert showed good speed and tackle-breaking ability on this touchdown in the Bears’ exhibition opener:

As mentioned in an earlier feature, Herbert is the running back most familiar with the Bears’ offense, as D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson just joined the team. Herbert could be a factor early to start on Zero RB rosters while others become more acclimated in the Chicago attack.

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs (124.9)

McKinnon may get utilized more early with Pacheco still working back from shoulder and hand surgeries. McKinnon was ninth among running backs with 71 targets and scored eight touchdowns after Week 13. Touchdown regression may come, but betting on a player in a Patrick Mahomes offense in the 11th round? Sign me up.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (127.2)

Mostert is in a Miami running back room that has been depressed in ADP. De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. are within a couple spots in ADP from Mostert, who broke through for 594 rushing yards after contact last year. He ran for 891 yards total.

Mostert and Achane fit the speed profile that HC Mike McDaniel likes, so in certain situations, the veteran running back could be a good call.