Fantasy Football Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos start 'em, sit 'em, how to watch TNF and more
Welcome back, Kansas City (and fantasy) fans!
The ball is about to get rolling for the sixth Thursday this season and this will mark the second TNF matchup in which the Chiefs have made an appearance. The first one, to kick the season off against the Detroit Lions, ended in a disastrous loss. This one, however, looks much easier for Kansas City to deal with — at least on paper and after what we’ve seen the first five weeks of regular-season football.
Opposing the Chiefs will be a team that hired a former Coach of the Year and Super Bowl champion on the sidelines. The Denver Broncos, which already traded for what they supposed was a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson last season, didn’t quite enjoy that so they bet on a coaching change to try and kickstart their broken engine.
Welp.
The Broncos (1-4) are last in the AFC West while the Chiefs (4-1), their foes on TNF, are leading the way having won their last four games following that season-opening loss to Detroit. That’s a bad outlook for Denver already, but historically things have been even worse for them in their head-to-head battles against Kansas City: the Broncos have lost 15 consecutive games to their rivals dating back to November 2015!
No need to mention the Chiefs are the clear favorites here with oddsmakers giving them a 10.5-point advantage over Denver.
The 50-point total is quite high and although this matchup can truly end in a blowout it’s fair to assume that Denver neither will allow Kansas City to dump 70 points on them (ahem) nor will the Chiefs actually play to that level with an offensive unit that is struggling a bit to start the season.
How do the Broncos and Chiefs arrive at their TNF matchup?
Long story short: the Chiefs are good and the Broncos are not. Long story mid-length: the Chiefs can attack and defend but while the Broncos can score points, they have a defense akin to Swiss cheese.
If you want a more detailed breakdown, here it is.
It all started in Week 1, of course, but what happened in Week 3 is what you surely remember: the Miami Dolphins dumped 70 points on the Broncos. It’s not worth it going through all of what happened then and there, but you got an idea of the defensive unit presented by the Broncos in the last game of September.
Things have gotten reasonably better of late as they have only allowed 59 points in the past two games combined! Progress, I guess? We’ll get into the nitty gritty numbers of Denver’s defense below because that’s the main point to discuss in this TNF matchup, but you already know what is coming.
The Broncos, however, have been able to score 121 points through Week 5, good for the eighth-most in the NFL. They are 1-4, yes, but they are doing at least somewhat of a respectable job on the offensive side of the game considering how bad things have gone for them.
Kansas City arrives from the totally opposite end of the spectrum. After dropping their season-opening matchup (also in TNF, for the superstitious) against the Lions 21-20, they have rebounded smoothly, winning their last four games without much trouble outside of suffering a little scare at the New York Jets (23-20) in Week 4.
The Chiefs are trying to navigate some offensive problems related, mostly, to the lack of playmakers at their skill positions outside of TE Travis Kelce. The negative? Kansas City has scored 128 points in five games, just seven more than the Broncos. The positive? The Chiefs don’t need much more than a healthy Patrick Mahomes and a one-legged Kelce to trounce opponents.
And Kansas City's defense, fifth in points allowed, is doing more than enough to keep the offense afloat.
Ominous comparison: the Chiefs have allowed 59 points in the last four games combined and the Broncos, as aforementioned, only did that in the last two games they’ve played after conceding 70 to the Dolphins three weeks ago.
TNF Week 6: Injury Report
Kansas City welcomed everybody back to practice in a limited or full capacity this week, including starting tight end Travis Kelce (limited) and wide receiver Kadarius Toney (full participant from Monday on).
Kelce suffered an ankle sprain last Sunday in the Chiefs win over Minnesota. He left the game briefly in the first half but returned after halftime completing a 10-catch, 67-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Vikings and helping his team get the win. The Chiefs lost the only game he didn’t play this season (Week 1) but all signs point toward the tight end being available on TNF.
Whether or not Head Coach Andy Reid and Kelce want to take any risk in a fairly easy matchup is an entirely different discussion. The only thing we know is that he was listed as “questionable” to play after Wednesday’s final practice … and that Taylor Swift is reportedly attending this TNF game.
The Broncos are surely happy to have their starting tight end back from Injured Reserve as Greg Dulcich (hamstring) was designated for return on Tuesday after not appearing on Monday’s report. That being said, it feels a bit rushed to have him back as soon as TNF kicks off. While they did activate him off IR, I don’t think he will play more than a decoy role for now.
Another player who returned for Denver but in this case will definitely play is running back Javonte Williams (quad). Sean Payton told reporters that he could have played last Sunday already if it were a postseason game, but the team decided to err on the side of caution instead. Williams was limited on Monday (estimation) but returned as a full participant on Tuesday already, getting cleared to play following Wednesday’s final practice.
No other players with fantasy eligibility in most leagues are listed in the injury reports ahead of this week’s TNF.
One stat that can swing the balance
The Broncos have the worst-ever defense by DVOA through five games, have allowed the second-most and THE most fantasy points to QBs and RBs, respectively, and are below-average against WRs.
There is no way to sugarcoat it. The Broncos defense is lost and they know it. They are allowing more than 36 points per game. They are allowing 263 passing yards per game, nearly three passing touchdowns a pop and worst of all is that they have been even worse (yes, believe me) against the rush.
Talking about the Broncos and how their defense is one of the most awful to ever been put together is a tired topic already, but it’s so relevant for this TNF matchup because of the two teams facing each other.
As currently constructed and as noted above, the Chiefs lost so many top-tier wide receivers throughout the past few years that the offense has come down to operating basically by the Mahomes-Kelce connection. The rest of the Kansas City pass catchers are your favorite flier’s favorite flier — if that.
That means that Kansas City is facing a team that knows nothing about how to prevent opponents from beating them, that has no clue about how to stop a running back room and all of that in a game they should (sorry, will) lead from the get-go.
The script is perfect for 1) Mahomes to play a couple of quarters and sit the second half almost entirely giving way to backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert (which already happened in a Week 3 blowout victory), 2) Travis Kelce to sit out this TNF rehabbing the injury he suffered last weekend in full and 3) the Chiefs running backs to run down the clock while putting up monster numbers against, again, a defense that is blind to opposing rushers and never tackles them.
Two players to start, two to leave on your bench
Start: WR Rashee Rice (KC)
This game is probably going to get out of hand. Patrick Mahomes might see a little bit less work on TNF than in closer games (which happened in Week 3 when the Chiefs destroyed the Bears) but the game will start tied at zero and you have to build a lead before you can call it quits, don’t you?
Keep in mind that if Travis Kelce plays, even if on a pitch count, he’s going to eat targets and put up numbers no matter what, so you’re always starting him. Other than Kelce, however, I’d bet on Mahomes giving a lot of looks to rookie receiver Rashee Rice this week.
Rice leads all Chiefs' wide receivers in targets with 24 and has hauled in 17 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns already. Rice has been targeted five-plus times in four games and he’s caught three-plus passes in all of those. In the odd game out he finished 2-for-2 with 20 yards.
The problem with Rice is that he has played 50% of the offensive snaps taken by the team in just one single game this season, but that might be about to change and this matchup looks like an extraordinary opportunity for Rice to prove he’s worth that bump-up in usage.
Mahomes was asked about Rice’s development on Tuesday and he sounded rather optimistic about his growth and pointed toward a greater connection getting built between QB and WR quickly.
This could be the week Rice finally goes off — you don’t want to miss it.
Start: QB Russell Wilson (DEN)
The Broncos' defense has been horrible but football is a game of 22 split into units of 11 players, one manning the offense and an entirely different one taking care of the defensive duties. That’s why Russell Wilson should be started this week without much hesitation, as Denver’s offense has been rather solid through five games this year.
Wilson might not be playing at a Super Bowl, MVP-caliber level anymore but he’s done more than enough to consider him a QB1 in most fantasy leagues. He’s thrown passes for 200-plus yards in three of the games he’s played this season. He’s limited his interceptions to only two against 11 touchdowns and he’s completed passes for two or more scores in four games.
While the rushing has been a little bit up and down (he’s carried the ball for one, 56, zero, 13 and 49 yards this season) there is some upside there too. The Broncos won’t run the ball for the sake of it and to kill the clock, but they better manage it to keep Mahomes on the sidelines. Rushing plays and scrambles should be used throughout the matchup even with an unfavorable game script.
With Jerry Jeudy stronger than at any earlier point this season and Courtland Sutton still solid (yet suffering from Jeudy’s presence), Wilson should put up numbers on Thursday.
Bench: RBs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)
Williams is expected back on Thursday after practicing as a full participant from Tuesday on. He didn’t play last Sunday with a quad injury (he practiced in the days before Week 5, mind you) but he should be ready to go, as confirmed by coach Payton.
That being said, the Broncos used their backup running backs strongly against the New York Jets last weekend with Williams out. Veteran Samaje Perine rushed the rock six times for 22 yards, catching four-of-five targets for a monster 73 yards. Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin had his second consecutive breakout game, pretty much confirming what he saw in Week 4.
Starting Williams is not risky in terms of him still having the RB1 role in this backfield, but considering how good the backups have been it’s reasonable to think their roles and usage (mostly McLaughlin’s) will grow sooner rather than later. That alone calls for pause and for benching Williams for this matchup at least.
I wouldn’t advise starting McLaughlin for the same reason: an abundance of capable rushers and an expected running-back-by-committe approach to this game. However, I’d still try to keep an eye on the rookie as he might finally take over the majority of the RB2 snaps following his great play in the last two weekends.
McLaughlin was limited to only 15 yards on five carries in Week 3, but on a slightly greater role in Week 4 (16 snaps), he rushed the ball for 72 yards on seven attempts while catching all three targets thrown his way for 32 yards and a touchdown. The rookie put on an encore last weekend (he appeared in 21 snaps) rushing for 68 yards on nine totes to go with another receiving touchdown while hauling in three of four targets for 21 yards.
Again, don’t risk this play on TNF with the Broncos most probably chasing Kansas City from behind and forced to pass on a larger percentage of plays, but if McLaughlin is still available in your league (he’s rostered in 62 percent of leagues) and puts on another solid performance, then don’t hesitate to rush to your waiver wire to add him.
One player to scout as a prospective waiver-wire pickup
WR Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos (29% rostered)
Something has to eventually change with this team and the Broncos should at least want to know what they have in Mims, shouldn’t they?
Although the franchise is 1-4 and seems destined for another losing season, the latest reports coming out of Denver involving wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton speak of the Broncos refusing to get into trade conversations that include their starters at the position.
At some point, they will have to do something because they have been in this situation forever while going nowhere. In fact, they seemingly already did that when they spent their first pick (a second-rounder) of the draft in Oklahoma standout Mims. Why are they barely using him!?
Mims has only played around one-third of Denver’s offensive snaps (he topped at 20 in Week 5) but he’s been fantastic (barring last Sunday’s stinker in which he only caught one target for four yards and a fumble). The rookie has gotten targeted more than twice in just one game but he has racked up a team-leading 246 yards on 10 receptions (12 total targets) including one for a touchdown.
No player in the NFL with at least 10 targets through Week 5 has a higher yards-per-target average than Mims’ 20.5, with the second-best figure at a distant 15.6 Y/T.
Starting Mims is a bold move considering his usage, but his production is impressive. If Denver realizes what they’re missing, then you shouldn’t hesitate and grab Mims from your waiver wire in a split second.
