Fantasy Football Week 15 Fades & Busts: Hard to count on CEH if Isiah Pacheco misses again

Just because a player is listed as a “fade” doesn’t mean they are automatic sits. As the adage goes, “Always start your stars.” What a “bust” designation does mean, however, is that you’ll want to consider higher-upside options in the flex.

Welcome to Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season — or, as most leagues call it, the fantasy football playoffs! You’ve made it this far in the 2023 season with your prowess on the waiver wire, smart sit/start decisions and probably a little luck. In case you find yourself in need of some advice to get to the next step, we’re here for you! Here are six fades and busts to temper expectations for heading into Week 15.

Fade: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

It may seem unwise to fade the quarterback of the league’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 29.5 points per game this season. However, that production hasn’t always translated to fantasy points for Tua Tagovailoa — especially throughout the second half of this season. In fact, after posting four games of 22 or more fantasy points through the first eight games of the season, he hasn’t had one since.

In Week 15, the Dolphins will host the Jets for their second matchup of the season — an opponent against which Tagovailoa scored just 7.8 fantasy points three weeks ago. The Jets have forced more games of two or more interceptions (four) than they have allowed multiple passing touchdowns (three) so far this season — and one of those multi-pick games came from Tua himself back in Week 12. Given the strength of the run game between veteran Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane, and an ankle injury to top weapon Tyreek Hill, expect the Dolphins to come out and lean heavily on the run once again to try to secure the win.

Bust: James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a Week 14 bye, which means this offense is well-rested and, hopefully, well-prepared to face their opponent. Unfortunately for them, their opponent is the San Francisco 49ers, whose defense would pose a great challenge for even the healthiest and most prepared rosters.

The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, and since the addition of Chase Young via trade, they’ve only become more suffocating. Since Young played his first game with the 49ers in Week 10, the 49ers have allowed just a single rushing touchdown to running backs while giving up just 3.3 yards per carry. Though Conner just posted his best fantasy finish all season in Week 13 against the Steelers, fantasy managers should temper expectations for him against this stout defense, setting Conner up for a touchdown-dependent RB2/RB3 performance.

Bust: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to travel to Gillette Stadium for a showdown against the 3-10 New England Patriots in Week 15. Unfortunately for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, their run defense is far outplaying the team’s 3-10 record. The Patriots have allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per attempt to opposing rushers, also ranking dead-last in the league with a 7% explosive run rate and 2.3 rushing yards after contact per attempt.

In summary, New England’s run defense is pretty darn good.

If Isiah Pacheco misses another week with a shoulder injury, fantasy managers might be tempted to start Edwards-Helaire in a pinch given that he led the team in carries just last week. However, consider the matchup a firm “no-go,” even in the most desperate of circumstances. The Patriots have allowed just a single running back to score more than 12 fantasy points in a game since Week 8 — a 14-point performance from Jonathan Taylor, where a touchdown saved his day after totaling just 69 rushing yards on 23 total carries. Don’t get cute with Edwards-Helaire in Week 15.

Bust: Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Though the 49ers are more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, the best fantasy wide receivers against them this season have required a decent amount of volume to get them there. That’s only more bad news for Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown, who seems to have officially lost his standing as quarterback Kyler Murray’s favorite target to second-year tight end, Trey McBride.

Since Murray’s return in Week 10 from a torn ACL, Brown has all but disappeared, averaging just 2.25 receptions for just 33.5 receiving yards per game. Of course, that’s translated to a significant dip in fantasy production. Brown has finished as WR60 or worse in three of those four games.

In their first meeting back in Week 4, Brown totaled 13.1 fantasy points (half-PPR) against the 49ers, managing 96 receiving yards on 10 total targets. Keep in mind, however, that he was playing with a different quarterback at that time, and McBride hadn’t yet emerged as a top target within the offense. Now, Brown will have a much greater uphill battle to climb, competing for targets against a defense that has allowed just a single wide receiver 12.5 or more fantasy points on fewer than 10 targets all season long.

Bust: Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

The Gabe Davis roller coaster has been a nauseating one this season, and lately, there have been more downs than ups, having posted goose eggs in three of his last five games. Now, the Bills will host the Cowboys in Week 15, one of their most challenging defensive matchups to date. Three of four of Davis’ games with 15 or more fantasy points (half-PPR) have come against teams that have ranked bottom-seven in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers in 2023, making it all the more unfortunate for fantasy managers that he’ll have to face the Cowboys this week, who have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers to date.

Since Week 8, the Cowboys have forced a league-high 44.5% pressure rate, which is unfortunate news for Davis managers, as he and Allen haven’t connected often on throws under pressure. To date this season, Davis ranks sixth on the team in receiving yards on pressured throws from Allen. That makes sense, of course, considering Davis ranks second on the team in terms of average route depth at 12.9 yards, while also leading the team by a significant margin with 14.4 average air yards per target, per Next Gen Stats. If Allen is under pressure, there’s less time for the routes to fully develop and give Davis a proper shot to score you some fantasy points at a crucial moment in the season.

Fade: Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys

It’s difficult to consider fading any tight end with a heartbeat at this point in the fantasy football season, especially the overall TE8 on the season, Jake Ferguson. In his second NFL season, Ferguson has more than made his mark as a staple within the Dallas Cowboys offense. He’s totaled seven or more targets in four of the last six games, having finished as a top-12 tight end in each of them.

But now, with a challenging upcoming matchup on the road against the Buffalo Bills, Ferguson could be in a position to disappoint fantasy managers in Week 15.

The Bills have allowed just 8.20 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (10th fewest), including just three touchdowns to the position all season long. Ferguson, meanwhile, has scored four of his five touchdowns at home so far this season, averaging 6.5 fantasy points per game on the road compared to 10.5 fantasy points per game on the road — concerning splits for a young tight end entering the hostile environment there in Orchard Park.