Fantasy Football: Sit/Start tips for Week 6 of the NFL season
Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 6 lineups!
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Start in DFS: Jeff Wilson Jr. ($19)
Sit: Drake London
Wilson ranks top-five in rush yards over expectation, sandwiched between Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. He lost some playing time to Tevin Coleman last week, but that mostly came with the game out of hand; he’s averaged 17.8 touches over the last four games. The extremely run-heavy 49ers are favored against an Atlanta defense allowing the second-most EPA/rush this season, making Wilson undervalued in DFS.
London ranks top-three in target share among all receivers this year, but that’s resulted in more than seven targets in just one game, and Kyle Pitts is returning Sunday. The 49ers’ elite run defense will almost certainly force the Falcons to throw more than usual (especially with no Cordarrelle Patterson), but San Francisco’s secondary is also incredibly strong (although Emmanuel Moseley was just lost for the season, and Nick Bosanot expected to play this week).
SF has allowed just 5.2 YPA, an NFL-low two passing scores and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season (they’ve faced Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf over the last three weeks).
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Start in DFS: Rhamondre Stevenson ($26)
Start: David Njoku
Stevenson led all backs in snap percentage last week when he handled all 27 RB opportunities after Damien Harris left with a hamstring injury. Other RBs will contribute in Week 6, but Stevenson will be featured again with Harris unlikely to go no matter who starts at quarterback for New England. The Patriots get a Browns run defense allowing 5.3 YPC, the most EPA/rush (0.17) by a wide margin and the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Cleveland has also averaged the fourth-most combined points during their games this season. Stevenson is an emerging star and he’s my No. 1 ranked RB this week.
After a slow start, Njoku has recorded 5+ catches for 70+ yards in three straight games, making him as good as any fantasy tight end not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. In fact, Njoku joins the big two as the only tight ends to rank top five in route and target share, as increased volume has followed his big offseason contract (as many expected).
New England’s heavy usage of man coverage helps Amari Cooper more on paper, but Njoku should be heavily involved with Bill Belichick focused on stopping Nick Chubb.
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Start in DFS: Breece Hall ($19)
Sit: AJ Dillon
Hall was the No. 4 back last week, and he still doesn’t have a top-15 RB DFS salary. The rookie had the most snaps inside the five-yard line among all running backs last week, as Michael Carter’s snap% continues to decline each game. Hall remarkably ranks top three among all running backs this season in targets, receiving yards, yards per route run, breakaway run rate, missed tackles/attempt and yards per touch. The Jets have gone run-heavy with Zach Wilson and get a Packers run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA this week.
I still have Dillon as an RB3 given the position’s issues, but you could easily have a better FLEX option this week even in a matchup with the Packers more than touchdown favorites. The Jets have been more vulnerable through the air than the ground, and while Green Bay may compensate Sunday, Dillon is coming off playing a season-low 31% snaps last week. Dillon’s target share has also decreased every game this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Evan Engram, Alec Pierce
James Robinson deserves bench consideration in this matchup, but Engram is a fine start versus a pass-funnel Colts defense. Engram saw 10 targets last week and the second-highest air yards share among all tight ends. He gets a Colts defense Sunday that’s tough against the run yet allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Pierce quietly ranks top-40 in targets per route run, and the rookie is set to see more action moving forward. Pierce led the Colts in targets last week despite running a dozen fewer routes than Michael Pittman, and Indianapolis could easily be forced to pass more than preferred while facing a stingy Jacksonville run defense and with Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines out due to injury.
Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
Start: Kirk Cousins, Raheem Mostert
Cousins has one of the best matchups on paper this week, and if Mike McDaniel is truly choosing to start Skylar Thompson over an available Teddy Bridgewater, there’s hope this game doesn’t become as sluggish as originally feared. Xavien Howard’s possible return would help, but the Dolphins have allowed both the fourth-most EPA/pass and fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Mostert was given a rest day mid-week after carrying the majority of Miami’s rushing workload last week but is expected to be ready Sunday. He can be a real difference-maker when healthy, and the Dolphins figure to be run-heavy while a seventh-round rookie QB makes his first NFL start. Chase Edmonds’ snap share has dropped each week, and he appears to have fallen behind Myles Gaskin on the depth chart. Mostert should be treated as a top-15 fantasy RB this week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Tyler Boyd
Sit: Taysom Hill
Boyd has lost slot snaps to Ja’Marr Chase this season, but he should see an expanded role this week with Tee Higgins either sidelined or severely limited by an ankle sprain. The Bengals offense ranks bottom-five in EPA/rush while the Saints defense is second-best in EPA/rush allowed, so Joe Burrow figures to be busy in a matchup indoors Sunday.
Chase also becomes an intriguing DFS option ($30) with Marshon Lattimore out.
Hill is the No. 3 (!) fantasy tight end with one catch for two scoreless yards on the season, and he also didn’t record a touch during one game. Last week he saw a season-high 31% snap share, so that type of production (six touchdowns on 22 carries/passes) seems highly unsustainable even with some valuable red-zone carries.
Hill’s ECR is the TE8 this week, and while he absolutely may be your best option at a thin tight end position (injuries to New Orleans WRs Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry also increase his chances for opportunities), just realize how low Hill’s floor is when comparing alternatives.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Start: Devin Duvernay, Darius Slayton
Rashod Bateman is out again, and Duvernay recorded a healthy 26.9% TPRR last week when he was also top-10 in air yards share (45.3%). Facing ex-DC Wink Martindale, Lamar Jackson could easily find himself having to pass more than usual this week. Duvernay is a solid flex option.
What once appeared to be a deep WR position in New York has quickly become one of the league’s thinnest groups, with Slayton going from preseason cut candidate to seeing more than twice as many targets as any other NYG player last week (when he also ranked top-five in air yardage share among all receivers). Slayton is plenty capable, and he’s set to be the Giants’ clear WR1 again Sunday against a Ravens defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Start in DFS: Cade Otton ($10)
Start: Najee Harris
Cameron Brate is set to return against the Steelers, but Otton should remain part of Tampa Bay’s offense anyway. The rookie ran the most routes among all tight ends last week, with more than a third coming from the coveted slot. Otton also led Tampa Bay in targets, and it’s becoming clear none of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones nor Russell Gage are close to fully healthy right now. Otton is an option at the DFS minimum, especially at the weak tight end position.
Rookie Jaylen Warren has been getting buzz, but Harris had an 11-1 carry and 4-0 target advantage over the rookie before the fourth quarter of a blowout last week. Harris has been a big fantasy disappointment and will likely continue to fail to come close to paying off his ADP. But he remains Pittsburgh’s lead back and has a matchup this week against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks first against the pass in DVOA yet middling versus the run, so leave Harris in starting lineups. The game script could easily not match the misleading point spread here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Start in DFS: Marquise Brown ($24), Geno Smith ($28)
Brown has seen double-digit targets in four straight games, averaging an NFL-high 12.3 over that span (tied with Cooper Kupp). He should be busy again Sunday with DeAndre Hopkins serving the final game of his suspension and facing a Seahawks defense allowing by far an NFL-high 8.6 YPA and the second-most EPA/pass (0.25) this season. This game has the week’s second-highest total at 50.5 points — the next highest is 4.5 points lower. Seahawks matchups are essentially tied for the second-most combined points scored in 2022.
Expect one more big fantasy performance from Brown before Hopkins returns.
Moreover, with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, treat Eno Benjaminas a top-15 RB this week. He’s $15 in Yahoo DFS.
It’s shocking Smith has been the No. 6 fantasy QB to open the year, but it also hasn’t been fluky. Seattle is throwing at a higher rate than they did with Russell Wilson, and the Seahawks’ schedule hasn’t been easy already facing the Broncos, 49ers and Saints. Smith has been incredibly accurate on deep passes, benefits from two terrific receivers (DK Metcalf looks far healthier than last season) and leads the NFL in CPOE and Passer Rating. The Seahawks remarkably rank first in offense in DVOA.
Sunday looks like a good matchup — Arizona’s defense ranks among the league leaders in EPA/rush yet is toward the bottom of the NFL in EPA/pass and has produced the highest pass rate over expectation against this season. Moreover, Seattle is getting the second-most yards per play while simultaneously allowing the most. Smith has become a fantasy starter and looks especially attractive in DFS this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start in DFS: Josh Allen ($41), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($11)
Allen was fantasy’s top scoring QB last week if you just counted his first half, and Buffalo isn’t going to let up after halftime versus a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs. There’s a real chance no punts occur in this game, and KC has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Allen is somehow averaging more rushing yards and is getting 1.5 more yards per pass attempt than last season. You’re only fading him in this DFS matchup to be contrarian in tournaments.
Valdes-Scantling led Kansas City in routes run and targets last week, while JuJu Smith-Schuster looks completely washed, and Mecole Hardman is battling a heel injury. MVS is the near DFS minimum despite getting good targets from Patrick Mahomes in a matchup with this week’s highest over/under by a wide margin.
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams
Start: DJ Moore, Darrell Henderson
Moore has been one of the bigger fantasy busts this season but may have ironically become more valuable with the Panthers now down to their third-string quarterback. Moore has averaged three more targets with PJ Walker starting throughout his career, as the two appear to be a good match. The Rams have been gashed for the most fantasy points to Moore’s primary side this season.
During his career, Moore has somehow caught twice as many touchdowns while playing indoors in 36 fewer games!
The defending Super Bowl champions are getting the fewest yards per play (4.8) in the NFL to open the season, and Carolina’s defense is better than average — and getting healthier. But with Cam Akersruled out Sunday for personal reasons and potentially done with the team, Henderson suddenly becomes a top-20 RB this week (at worst) and maybe longer. Even if LA mixes in others, Henderson is well worth starting in fantasy leagues with the Rams 10-point home favorites.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sit: Michael Gallup
Start: Eagles D/ST
Gallup will be worth using once Dak Prescott returns (and absolutely start him should CeeDee Lambunexpectedly miss Sunday night’s game), but he’s in a tougher spot against an Eagles defense allowing the third-lowest EPA/pass and getting healthier in the secondary. Game script could force increased passing volume from the Cowboys this week, however.
Dallas keeps winning thanks to a dominant defense, but Cooper Rushhas quietly struggled during obvious passing downs. Playing just his second game outdoors this year, Rush will be facing an Eagles defense that ranks top five in pressure rate; Dallas has allowed the third-highest pressure rate on offense this season.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Start: Russell Wilson, Gerald Everett
Wilson is dealing with a shoulder injury, but assuming he’s good to go after a PRP injection, expect a nice bounce-back performance Monday night. He’s been a big fantasy disappointment having been outscored by Jacoby Brissett while not being a top-15 QB so far this season, but Wilson is due for major touchdown regression with some wild red-zone issues.
Wilson has gotten 8.6 YPA with four of his five TDs coming during two road games this year. The Chargers rank in the bottom quarter of the league in pressure rate and have allowed multiple passing TDs in all but one game this season during a schedule that’s included Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence and Jacoby Brissett. With Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone both dealing with injuries over the course of the week, expect a big game from Wilson in primetime.
Everett is coming off a quiet performance last week but saw a target inside the 10-yard line for the third game this season. He should be busier Monday night facing a Denver defense that’s tough to run against and with Keenan Allenlikely out again.
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