The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Breece Hall on verge of being top-5 RB rest of season
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Breece Hall’s 12.1 fantasy points per game are a lie
Hall has been the RB20 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) during his return from ACL surgery. But I’d treat him as a top-five RB rest of season once he comes out of New York’s upcoming bye. Hall is coming off his season-high in backfield touch share (77%) last week, when he also doubled his usual route participation. The growing receiving role is huge for his fantasy value and helped Hall have a productive game despite facing a stout Eagles defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Hall’s snaps continue to increase weekly, and he’s seen five carries inside the 10-yard line over the last two games. He’s getting the second-most yards per touch in the league and has the third-most breakaway runs despite having just the 25th-most rush attempts. Moreover, Hall’s schedule looks incredibly friendly moving forward, and his role should further expand following the bye. Hall is a top fantasy asset whose season-long stats remain deceiving.
Geno Smith’s five touchdown passes are a lie
Smith sits 23rd in TD passes this season, behind Joshua Dobbs, Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young. He had multiple touchdown tosses in 13 games last season but has just one so far in 2023. The red zone has been a major issue, highlighted last week when Smith attempted 10 RZ passes but failed to record a touchdown. Smith is averaging the fourth-most red-zone passes and the second-most end-zone attempts per game. Justin Fields has nine TD passes on his end-zone targets alone this season. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and an emerging Jaxon Smith-Njigba provide terrific targets, so expect major regression here.
When Seattle has had red-zone success, it’s been all Kenneth Walker III. K9 leads all backs in goal-to-go rushing attempts (18) and has already racked up six touchdowns inside the 10 after scoring just twice on 16 such attempts last season. The Seahawks have one of the league’s highest pass rates over expectation, while Smith is sporting the league’s best completion percentage above expectation. Seattle’s offensive line is also getting healthier, so expect far more touchdowns from Smith moving forward. It starts this week against a Cardinals defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Brian Robinson’s 50.3 rushing yards per game are a lie
Robinson is getting just 28.7 rushing yards per game over the last three games after averaging 72.0 over the first three. Over the last three weeks, Washington has gone on the road to face two defenses that rank bottom-four in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season (including an Eagles D yielding just 49.2 rushing ypg to RBs). The Commanders’ other game featured a wild game script that somehow saw Washington not call a run play after 9:28 was left in the second quarter. The Commanders have the second-lowest RB fantasy usage over that span.
Robinson’s schedule eases up starting this week against a Giants defense allowing the third-most rushing ypg (132.7) to running backs (New York is also the only team that ranks bottom-five in yards per play and yards per play allowed, so game-script shouldn’t be an issue). Robinson continues to dominate Washington’s ground game (although Chris Rodriguez saw work last week), and he has the eighth-most carries inside the five-yard line (Robinson was tackled at the one last week). Terry McLaurin has zero red-zone targets this season, so touchdowns should be there for Robinson even when game-scripts don’t fully cooperate.
DeVonta Smith’s 9.9 fantasy points per game are a lie
Smith has been the WR39 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) after finishing top-10 last season (and being taken in the second round of fantasy drafts). He had the second-most unrealized air yards (137) last week, when he committed a bad drop downfield that changed his entire fantasy day.
A.J. Brown has seized the WR1 role in Philadelphia, with Smith’s target rate down from 26.2% last season to 18.9% in 2023. But Smith ranks top-12 in air yards on an Eagles’ passing offense sure to improve moving forward. Philadelphia has faced a couple of tough pass defenses on the road over the last two games and has undergone growing pains without Shane Steichen. Smith remains plenty involved in a potent Eagles offense that averaged the third-most points per game last season. He gets a highly favorable looking fantasy playoffs schedule, too (@SEA, NYG, ARI). Talk up the Julio Jones signing and try to buy Smith low in fantasy leagues.
Zack Moss’ 19.3 fantasy points are a lie
Moss deserves a ton of credit for running on Tennessee and generally looking great this season. He’s been the No. 5 fantasy back in points per game despite facing a difficult schedule, having multiple QB changes and sharing the field with Jonathan Taylor over the last two weeks. Moss ranks seventh in rush yards over expectation, sandwiched between Bijan Robinson and Raheem Mostert.
But Moss gets two of the toughest run defenses in the league over the next two weeks (CLE & NO) and is sure to start ceding more touches. Taylor just signed a huge contract and is one of the three best running backs in football. Moreover, Gardner Minshew (25th in EPA/dropback) has struggled throughout his career when defenses know he’s starting (like last week), so the Colts’ offense could be a problem with Anthony Richardson lost for the season.
Moss has been too good to completely go away, and there’s a chance he remains flex worthy given the dire RB landscape, but don’t let the last two games fool you — this is Taylor’s backfield moving forward.
