Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: How do we adapt to all the Week 7 changes for Week 8 and beyond?
If you’re like most people, you resist change. We are all hard-wired, to some extent, to oppose any upset to our equilibrium … even when it’s ultimately a good thing. Part of the problem is that one of the evolutionarily oldest parts of our brain, the amygdala, interprets change as a threat. This signals us to enter self-defense and self-preservation mode. Because change engages a very old part of our brain, the newer, more logical and rational parts of our brains — the prefrontal cortex — take a backseat. We typically have to make a great effort to thoughtfully evaluate the changes occurring in our lives in terms of positives and negatives, exhibiting a willingness to be open-minded instead of just auto-resisting.
Another wrinkle arises for those of us who meticulously plan our lives. When you have a clear vision, based on careful research, it is a psychological blow when external forces intervene to derail it. Think of a fantasy football draft (or season). If your first-round pick breaks his leg, you’ll be faced with unwelcome change and it can feel overwhelming or incapacitating.
As with most brain-related traits, there is a lot of individual variation in how much change negatively influences your life and well-being. We all know people who can roll with the curveballs that arise. We see others throw tantrums, transferring feelings of disappointment into anger and hostility when things don’t go their way. When you’ve worked hard toward a certain goal and it suddenly becomes unachievable (through no fault of your own), it should be painful.
But the quicker you can get to a place of emotional detachment and logical evaluation of the new possibilities, the better.
Week 7 in the NFL had its share of curveballs and dealing with the changes — both acute (like several in-game injuries) and chronic (like the Packers and Bucs) — is going to test us all. As if bye weeks weren’t bad enough…
During this week of upheaval, remember that good things come from change too, and in the words of the Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, the only constant is change.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers
Love him or hate him, most people have a great deal of respect for how Brady has dominated the game and QB position for decades.
Love him or hate him, it’s hard to watch him play right now.
Brady was QB 18 in Week 7 and QB 16 in Week 6. He has had only one of his typically good games — versus the Chiefs in Week 4 (3 TD, 385 passing yards). Brady’s only being mandatorily started in SuperFlex leagues, but everyone is relying on Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette for production — and they depend on Brady.
Statistically, nothing stands out to explain the Bucs’ slump. Brady is throwing deep, getting good protection, has only one interception and has above-average passing attempts. His receivers have dropped an average number of passes, and achieved average separation. Yet Tampa is tied with Houston and Carolina in offensive points per game (17.7). The volume is paying off for the PPR fantasy value of Evans and Godwin for now. Even newly-promoted TE Cade Otton was worth it for desperados with four catches for 64 yards vs. Carolina.
The fact that coach Todd Bowles hinted at an ageist shift after the embarrassing loss Sunday should have you on alert. We’ve seen Rachaad White getting more work (six carries to Fournette’s eight last week) but prior to the loss to Carolina, Fournette has been a real bright spot. If you can afford a roster spot for White, I’d stash him (currently available in 71 percent of Yahoo leagues).
You have to start Evans and Godwin against the Ravens this Thursday. I believe we’ll see a bounce-back game from Brady this week, but I don’t think we’ll find him or the Bucs on an upward trajectory this season. Winter is finally coming.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers
Actual winter might come to Green Bay in October, but the question on Packers fans’ minds is whether some cold air and snow can reinvigorate this 2022 team. They have significant problems on offense and defense, evidenced by their back-to-back losses to the Jets and Commanders. Penalties are also a problem, and the trend is going in the wrong direction (9/69 yards Sunday).
I’ve said it before and it’s by no means statistical, but Aaron Rodgers looks done with this season. His and Matt LaFleur’s recent quotes suggest mental mistakes and overly complicated plays, as well as drops, are contributing to the problem. However, unlike Brady, Rodgers is below average in deep ball completions, and his accuracy (money throws) is also down (he ranked fifth in the stat last year; he's tied for 22nd this season). Rodgers just seems resigned at this point — like me after raking leaves for the ninth time …SO.OVER.IT.
So, despite any talk of this low point being good for him or the team heading into Buffalo for a primetime SNF game in Week 8, the only Packer I’m starting is Aaron Jones. Confounding an already extremely thin WR group, Allen Lazard injured his shoulder, and Romeo Doubs is on my personal do-not-play list after failing to haul in any of four targets in Week 7. Rodgers joins Brady in going from "old reliable" to "unreliable" this season. That's going to take some getting used to.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Jacobs has at least 20 carries, four targets and 140 rushing yards in each of the Raiders’ last three games. He scored six touchdowns in that span and averaged 34 PPR fantasy points in those three games. He has vaulted up the RB rankings and fantasy standings, such that only Austin Ekeler is higher. He is on pace for the best season of his four-year career in every statistic, including receptions.
What’s changed? Why wasn’t he drafted in the first two rounds? The major factor is Davante Adams joining the team. As much as that has hurt Rodgers and Green Bay, it’s opened up running lanes for Jacobs. He is averaging 5.7 YPC, well above any prior mark of his. Plus, Adams is helping to get the team down the field, giving Jacobs 19 red-zone rushing attempts and six touchdowns (same as Nick Chubb). It’s clear now that preseason worries about Zamir White were wholly ungrounded. Jacobs is a strong hold with a favorable ROS schedule unless he’s your only star piece and you could trade him for a generous 2- or 3-for-1 package.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
This change was abrupt. James Robinson scored zero fantasy points in Week 7, while Etienne gave the Jaguars a bright spot with 114 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown. He also caught one of five targets for five yards and lost a fumble Sunday in the loss to the Giants. Etienne’s 8.1 YPC was the high mark of Week 7 among RBs with at least five carries. About 60 percent of Yahoo leagues started Etienne in Week 7, a number that should rise into the 90s for Week 8.
Author’s note: Here’s what I wrote on Monday, as a fantasy writer who makes VERY few prognostications: There are plenty of teams that could use Robinson (and he’s only 24 years old), but Jacksonville is apparently not one of them.I’d still hold Robinson unless I desperately needed the roster spot, in case of an Etienne injury or a trade materializes in the next week.
Now that the trade has materialized, we know how much the Jets hate Michael Carter, and we have renewed hope for Robinson’s fantasy season. He’s clearly no Breece Hall, but his outlook has significantly improved nonetheless.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
It was expectedly a high-scoring game vs. Kansas City that quickly favored a pass-happy approach by the 49ers. McCaffrey started the game strong, ending with 60 total yards on 10 total touches (two catches on two targets). He was expected to ease in, but he looked great and I think game script more than "readiness" dictated his usage. This should be fun for McCaffrey managers going forward, but I expect Jeff Wilson Jr. to plummet in value.
DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin
PJ Walker fixing DJ Moore and Taylor Heinicke fixing Terry McLaurin resulted in the two biggest upsets of the week.
Wow. Sometimes change is a good thing.
Now, neither of these highly drafted wide receivers broke the week open for their managers, and Moore was probably not even started in most leagues (McLaurin was only started in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues last week), but both posted eerily similar season highs: 5/73/1 for McLaurin and 7/69/1 for Moore. Their scores broke five- and four-week TD draughts, respectively. Week 8 isn’t a super-desperation bye week, but I think we’ll see more of these guys in starting lineups going forward. Just keep expectations in check right now since these performances do count as fluky.
FWIW, Moore’s upcoming schedule is the more tempting one, and Heinicke and McLaurin had all of last year to make magic together and it generally didn’t happen.
Quick Hit: Fact
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Juju has spent the last two weeks as the Chiefs No. 1 receiver with 113 and 124 receiving yards and a touchdown in each game. Those numbers outpaced even Travis Kelce, who is still the receptions leader for the team. This trend has staying power after the team’s bye week, especially when you consider those numbers came when facing the two best defenses in the league: Buffalo and San Francisco. I’ve been a believer that this pairing could revive Smith-Schuster’s career, and as the season has gone on, Patrick Mahomes appears to be gaining trust in the veteran. If Juju’s manager is facing a tricky bye week, and you aren’t, it’s a great time to try and trade for him.
Quick Hits: Fluke
Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
With two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown against the Niners, Hardman was a DFS hero for Week 7. He also no doubt helped plenty of best ball teams with his fantasy surge. Though I roster him in one league, even the Week 7 byes weren’t enough for me to start him in normal leagues, and that’s ok. He was used in a creative game plan, designed to outsmart the 49ers’ talented defense. It might happen again this season, but when is anyone’s guess.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
I know I wasn’t the only one who was disappointed by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Not to even mention Michael Gallup … yikes! Against an incredibly fantasy-friendly Lions’ defense, the Cowboys relied on Ezekiel Elliott to make the moves, and he came through with two touchdowns. Prescott wasn’t bad — but he threw eight passes to three different tight ends who all enjoyed 100 percent catch rates. Peyton Hendershot scored the lone passing touchdown. Lamb will have better games with Dak, not to worry.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
There were a lot of zeros in fantasy lineups this weekend and it wasn’t for lack of trying. Andrews was perhaps the most surprising of these, given that he was targeted only twice against the Browns. There is speculation that while his sore knee didn’t keep him out of the game, it kept him largely out of the game plan on Sunday.
It turned out to be a weird Gus Edwards game — Edwards, who was expected to be eased back in but went nuclear instead with 16 carries for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Kenyon Drake had decent opportunities but was objectively awful (11 carries for five yards). The Ravens play the Bucs Thursday night and the correct order of start priority is Andrews (assuming full practice and no setbacks), Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman and Edwards.
