Fantasy Basketball 2022-23: How each projected top-10 player could disappoint

By Nick Whalen, RotoWire

Special to Yahoo Sports

Opening Night in the NBA is less than two weeks away, which means fantasy draft season is picking up in earnest. As ADP data continues to flow in and become more and more refined, we’re getting a good look at the players going near the top of most drafts.

Unsurprisingly, that list begins with Nikola Jokic, who for the second year in a row is as close as it gets to a consensus No. 1 pick. Beyond Jokic, the top 10 is littered with familiar names, from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Kevin Durant to James Harden. As you’d expect, all of these players are All-NBA-caliber superstars with multiple years of elite fantasy production under their belts.

But anyone who’s ever played fantasy basketball – or any fantasy sport, for that matter – knows that each year, a handful of elite players will fail to return value at their draft spot. Injuries tend to be the primary culprit, but players can also be victimized by changes in role, age-related decline or additions of other star players to the roster.

Using Yahoo’s ADP data as our guide, let’s take a look at the top 10 fantasy players and examine which factors could potentially derail their seasons.

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Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (Overall ADP 1.2)

Over the last three seasons, Jokic has finished third, first and first in overall fantasy value, so he’s easily the most difficult player on this list to bet against. Not only is Jokic the most productive and diverse player in fantasy, but he’s also been the league’s most durable superstar. Jokic has never played fewer than 72 games, and while his body is not exactly chiseled from stone, there’s been no indication he’ll slow down anytime soon.

As is the case with any player, Jokic could be susceptible to a freak injury, but that’s not something fantasy managers can truly account for. In Jokic’s case, the only real argument against taking him No. 1 overall is that Denver may not need to rely on him quite as much this season with both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. returning from injury. But if we’re being honest, I’m not sure how much that argument holds up. Both Murray and Porter played close to full seasons in 2020-21, when Jokic coasted to the No. 1 overall spot.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (Overall ADP 3.5)

While free-throw shooting continues to be a thorn in Antetokounmpo’s side, he’s a justifiable pick inside the top five of most fantasy drafts. The best two-way player in the league has been a top-10 value in five of the last six seasons.

While he hasn’t been quite as durable as Jokic, Antetokounmpo clearly takes care of his body and has avoided any serious injuries since entering the league in 2013. However, he’s battled a chronic knee issue over the last couple of years, and playing for the Greek National Team over the summer means he could already have some wear and tear on that knee.

The Bucks are a team squarely focused on returning to the Finals, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Antetokounmpo’s game count and minutes load is closely monitored throughout the regular season. He’s never been a player who voluntarily rests, but it’s notable that Antetokounmpo has failed to crack 70 games in any of the last three seasons.

Workload aside, Antetokounmpo will need to improve at the free-throw line to have any hope of ever finishing as the No. 1 overall player in category leagues. He jumped from 68.5 percent to 72.2 percent last season, but his fantasy ceiling will be capped as long as he’s sitting in the high-60s/low-70s range.

Joel Embiid, 76ers (Overall ADP 3.7)

The big man is coming off of easily the best fantasy season of his career, so his value is at an all-time high entering his age-28 campaign. Despite missing 14 games, Embiid finished as a top-three value, though he was helped by virtually every other superstar missing time – something that can’t always be counted on.

Given Embiid’s injury pedigree at the time he was drafted back in 2014, his career has played out about as well as it possibly could have. He’ll never be close to an 80-game player – or perhaps even 70 games – but the fact that he’s been able to avoid major injuries feels like a minor miracle. Hopefully, that continues as he moves closer to his 30s, but the fear of an injury will always be in the back of fantasy managers’ minds.

Beyond the obvious, the Sixers have one of the deepest and most well-rounded rosters in the league, so Embiid likely won’t be asked to carry the team on the same level as last season, when he posted by far the highest usage rate of his career. With a refocused James Harden, an ascending Tyrese Maxey and a fantastic fourth option in Tobias Harris, we should see a more egalitarian offense in Philly.

As long as he’s healthy, Embiid will still be the clear focal point, but in many ways last season felt like the best-case scenario. Embiid is easily worth a first-round pick, but I’d prefer to grab him outside the top five.

Luka Doncic, Mavericks (Overall ADP 4.5)

For the third straight year, Doncic enters the season with the lowest NBA MVP odds of any player in the league. It’s easy to see why after he posted 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.1 threes per game last season.

Doncic should once again be in a position to put up monster counting stats, particularly with Jalen Brunson out of the picture. However, the Mavs’ roster might be worse than last season, and they’ll be starting a non-shooter at center in JaVale McGee. At this point, Doncic is good enough to carry a team regardless of the supporting cast, but he’ll be asked to take a massive burden, which could take its toll over the course of the season.

Doncic has only played 65, 66 and 61 games over the last three years, and while the hope is that he finally arrives in shape after playing for Slovenia this summer, we’ve learned that’s no guarantee.

In terms of the pure numbers, it’s tough to build a case against Doncic, but he did lead the league in turnovers last season, which hamstrings his value in Yahoo’s default nine-cat leagues. He’s also failed to improve as a free-throw shooter, sitting in the low 70s for each of the last two seasons. That's especially damaging for a player who could eclipse eight attempts per game this season.

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Kevin Durant, Nets (Overall ADP 4.6)

Even at age 34, and even after a torn Achilles, Durant has shown few signs of decline as he moves into his mid-30s. Save for a subpar first-round series against Boston, Durant was once again among the NBA’s ultra-elite players last season.

The issue is Durant has only suited up for 90 regular-season games over the last two seasons after missing the entirety of the 2019-20 campaign while recovering from the Achilles. The good news is he’s managed to avoid another serious injury, but a handful of minor ailments have dealt a major blow to his fantasy value.

On a per-game basis, Durant might be the single biggest threat to Jokic’s reign – Durant finished second in per-game value last season – but at this point in his career he can no longer be counted on to play close to a full season. Fantasy managers grabbing Durant inside the top five are signing up for a high-risk/high-reward proposition. If Durant misses 20 games, it’ll be almost impossible for him to return that value.

Stephen Curry, Warriors (Overall ADP 6.1)

Curry was a no-brainer first-round pick last season, and while he returned value, it’s worth noting he experienced some regression in a few key categories. Curry had the worst shooting season of his career – both in terms of FG% and 3PT% – and his scoring dropped by nearly 7.0 points per game relative to 2020-21.

Of course, Curry could always bounce back this season, but he’ll turn 35 in March, so it’s very possible his best years are in the rearview. As long as he stays healthy, Curry’s 3-point production gives him an incredibly high fantasy floor. But on a super-deep Warriors team with its sights set on another ring, he could very well have his workload monitored in an attempt to preserve him for the postseason.

Jayson Tatum, Celtics (Overall ADP 8.1)

Tatum is still only 24 years old, so he should only continue to improve over the next few seasons. He’s coming off of a disappointing Finals, but Tatum was one of the five best players in the league over the second half of the regular season when he charged all the way up to a fifth overall finish in fantasy.

An effortless scorer who’s stayed healthy through his first five NBA seasons, it’s difficult to build a definitive case against Tatum. He’s coming off of a monster year and it was somehow easily the worst 3-point shooting season of his career. In the back half of the first round, he’s about as safe as it gets. However, Tatum’s statistical ceiling isn’t quite as high as some of the other players on this list, so fantasy managers who reach for him inside the top five could be left disappointed.

Not only should Boston be a deep team with plenty of options around Tatum – headlined by Jaylen Brown, who outplayed him in the Finals – but the Celtics enter the year with significant uncertainty after the suspension of head coach Ime Udoka. They’re talented enough to weather that storm, but it’s nonetheless a distraction that could impact how the Celtics begin the year.

James Harden, 76ers (Overall ADP 8.5)

Full disclosure: I’m all in on Harden this season. He’s done and said all of the right things this offseason, and I love how he fits into Philly’s offensive plan. Even in what felt like a tumultuous year, Harden still managed to finish as a top-10 player in total value and a top-five per-game value.

So, what could go wrong? For one, Harden is not the best player on his own team, so the presence of Joel Embiid does put somewhat of a cap on his upside. As the numbers bear out, both he and Embiid can be top-10 guys, but it’s admittedly a difficult needle to thread. Harden could also cede more touches to Tyrese Maxey this season, as Maxey continues to ascend toward future-star status.

Numbers-wise, the biggest concern for Harden may be his 3-point and free-throw rates. Harden hit only 2.3 threes per game last season – fewest since 2012-13 – and while he got to the line more than eight times per game, that’s still down significantly from his peak years in Houston. Realistically, though, Harden has an extremely high fantasy floor when he’s healthy.

Trae Young, Hawks (Overall ADP 8.9)

Young is a really interesting case study this season. For an undersized guard, he’s been extremely durable and was one of only a handful of stars who reached 75 games played last season. He’s coming off the best fantasy season of his career, but he could face a significant adjustment period with Dejounte Murray arriving in Atlanta via trade.

On paper, Murray and Young offer complementary skill sets. Murray is a defensive ace who can create shots for others, while Young is a much better shooter and overall offensive player. The Hawks have already implied that Young will spend more time off-ball this season, which makes sense given that Murray is not a reliable spot-up shooter. That could lead to more open looks for Young, but it’s also likely that his usage rate and assist rate will fall off considerably.

Young and Murray finished first and fifth, respectively, in total assists last season, so both players will likely regress in that category. With that in mind, Young should remain an elite fantasy player, but he doesn’t have nearly the same level of upside this season.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves (Overall ADP 9.3)

For the most part, I’ve been pretty optimistic about most of the elite players, but Towns is someone I’m beginning to worry about. While he shook off durability concerns to play 74 games last season, he recently admitted he was hospitalized due to a throat infection during the first week of training camp. Long-term, that shouldn’t be a concern, but it’s not exactly a positive start to the season for a player who was greatly impacted by COVID-19.

My concerns for Towns extend beyond his health. Since entering the league in 2015, Towns has been an elite fantasy player thanks to a diverse stat profile that includes blocks, threes and a plus free-throw percentage – the rare holy trinity for a big man. None of that should change in his age-27 season, but the arrival of Rudy Gobert could have a significant effect on Towns’ role on both ends of the floor. With Gobert playing 30-to-35 minutes per night at center, Towns could be in danger of falling under 1.0 blocks per game while his rebounding will almost certainly suffer. Towns already posted career lows in both categories last season.

Gobert aside, the Timberwolves also have an ascending superstar in 21-year-old Anthony Edwards. Edwards’ usage rate actually declined last season relative to his rookie year, but that trend is highly unlikely to continue. As Edwards grows as a scorer, he’ll inevitably cut into Towns’ workload. More offensive diversity may be a good thing for the Timberwolves’ team success, but it’s not necessarily what Towns’ fantasy managers are rooting for.