Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: If you play in a H2H league, make these deals

Although most fantasy writers play exclusively in rotisserie leagues, head-to-head formats are the norm for many fantasy managers. This week’s column is dedicated to those in head-to-head leagues, as successful managers in those formats are cruising toward the playoffs and can afford to look far ahead on the schedule when making roster moves. Others are in a different situation, scrambling to secure a playoff berth and needing players who are in a favorable position to succeed right now.

To make life easier for both groups, I looked at the MLB schedule and picked out groups of players who should be part of trade talks before we reach the Yahoo deadline in early August.

Players to acquire

Twins pitchers

Last week, in my Bold Predictions article for the second half, I suggested that Joe Ryan could make dramatic improvements to his ERA and come from way behind to win the AL ERA crown. Of course, this is an extreme long shot, as Ryan currently owns a 3.77 ERA. But the actionable advice for fantasy managers is that the Twins have an extremely favorable schedule for their deep rotation down the stretch. Ryan, Sonny Gray, Pablo López, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober are all attractive trade options due to the fact that from now until the end of August, Minnesota will not play any games against teams that currently rank among the top five in OPS while playing 25 contests against teams that sit in the bottom 10.

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Managers who need to make a move in their pitching standings should add a Minnesota starter right away. Maeda could be the easiest to acquire.

The veteran is rostered in just 46% of Yahoo leagues, as his season-long numbers are adversely impacted by one terrible start on April 26 that preceded a two-month injured list stint. Gray could also arrive at a discount right now, as he has struggled in his past two outings. Finally, those who need a reliever could target Jhoan Duran in trade talks in anticipation of the Twins winning plenty of low-scoring games in the coming weeks.

Astros starters

Managers in head-to-head leagues who are already cruising to a playoff spot can consider looking far ahead in the schedule by acquiring a Houston starter right now. The Astros will have some terrific matchups for pitchers in the final weeks of the season. In a five-series stretch from Sept. 11 to 27, the club plays three series against the Royals and A’s, who are among the bottom three teams in OPS. The Astros also get three games at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field against a Mariners lineup that currently ranks 23rd in OPS.

Framber Valdez will be difficult to acquire but could be worth the premium return. Cristian Javier would be an interesting player to acquire right now, as he has driven his managers bananas by posting an 8.44 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP since June 9 but showed small signs of turning things around in his most recent start.

Cubs hitters

This is another group of players who can be considered by those looking to trade for players now who will have favorable schedules in the fantasy playoffs. Chicago plays two September series against a Rockies staff that has logged a 6.20 ERA since June 1 and is clearly the worst in baseball at this time. They also visit homer-happy Great American Ball Park during the final month of the season and play a series against a Pirates pitching staff that has been fading badly after a solid start to the campaign. Nico Hoerner has been the Cubs' most valuable fantasy hitter in leagues that value steals, which makes him an easy choice as the top target in some formats.

Ian Happ has underachieved from a fantasy perspective, but his year-over-year OPS remains mostly unchanged, making him an interesting buy-low target right now. And the fact that Dansby Swanson has combined mediocre 2023 numbers with a July IL stint makes him an obvious trade target for those who are thinking well into the future.

Players to trade

Phillies hitters

Philadelphia’s hitters could have a tough time in the fantasy playoffs, which makes them easy to avoid for those who are doing well in head-to-head leagues and are looking far ahead. The club plays seven games in the middle of September against a loaded Braves squad that leads the NL in both ERA and OPS, which will make life tough for their hitters and hurlers. They also play an early September series at pitcher-friendly Petco Park against a Padres staff that ranks sixth in ERA, and they have two other mid-September series against teams (Marlins, Mets) that have plenty of big names in their respective rotations. Managers can decide if the schedule will cause them to sell high on Nick Castellanos or Bryson Stott right now, and it might also be enough of a reason to avoid buying low on Trea Turner or Kyle Schwarber in head-to-head formats.