Fantasy Baseball: Is Matt Chapman having an unexpected breakout, or will he break hearts instead?

The current top three players in 5X5 fantasy baseball leagues are as follows: Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. (no surprise), New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (no surprise) and Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (wait, what?!).

Now, we're barely a month into the season — shenanigans in the rankings should be expected; Jorge Mateo follows Chapman at No. 4, and we know that's not going to last. But Chapman is a curious case, as this is a player with pedigree and a history littered with spurts of greatness. Sure, we know Chapman is a defensive demon at the hot corner, but his bat has lagged behind a bit, especially in recent seasons.

Chapman hit his fifth home run Wednesday, putting him in a tie for fourth on the current homer leaderboard. He has the highest batting average in baseball (min. 65 ABs) — shocking for a guy who has been barely over the Mendoza line the past few seasons.

Could he be having a mid-to-late-career breakout? Let's take a look.

Let's get the obvious out of the way: Chapman was a clear candidate to be one of the beneficiaries of the new shifting rules, as the third baseman had become a primary victim of over-shifting, with his pull-ball tendencies being rendered virtually toothless. But I don't think anyone could have predicted this level of positive regression. Specifically, his plate approach. As mentioned, Chapman had become a batting average drain the past few seasons, so much so that it was his glove keeping him in lineups. Some seriously ugly K percentages overpowered otherwise acceptable walk numbers. And his power — evident throughout his career in his .476 slugging percentage — couldn't make up for his struggles in the other categories.

Things have changed so far in this young season. Chapman has become a four-category superstar in fantasy, delivering a gaudy average, the aforementioned five bombs and 30 R+RBIs. Hitting in the Blue Jays' potent lineup certainly helps, but Chapman has been the team's best hitter.

He has lowered his strikeout percentage to 21.1 so far; the last time it was under 25 was in 2019, Chapman's lone All-Star season, when he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 home runs and an .848 OPS. While this might not be his norm, he has a precedent of being able to hit like this; it isn't just luck.

Luck isn't completely out of the equation, however. Chapman is sporting an inflated .468 BABIP, one that will surely regress to the mean; he's not going to hit .397 the rest of the season — some of those hits will become strikeouts and groundouts. But advanced metrics are loving Chapman nonetheless; his Statcast page is a sea of red, and his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA are all top-three in the league right now.

What do we glean from all this? Well, the obvious is to expect regression, specifically in the batting average department. While Chapman has hit above .240 a couple of times in his career, it hasn't been the norm for him, and we'd be foolish to ignore that monster BABIP. But Chapman is absolutely hammering the ball right now, and that's while reducing his Pull% to the lowest mark since his rookie season. He's taking advantage of the new rules, but he isn't putting all his chips in on them, either. It's possible that, even with regression, he could end up with a .250/.260 average, supplemented by 35-plus homers and more than 180 R+RBIs (and a handful of steals to boot). That's elite production in 2023.

I would sell high on Chapman only if I'm getting an ace pitcher or two quality hitters in return. Otherwise, ride the wave, as Chapman just might deliver the best season of his career.