Fantasy Baseball: These 10 players have an extra incentive to succeed in 2024
Taking a peek at contract status could be a bit of a cheat code that many fantasy managers don’t look at when setting draft strategy. Remember Aaron Judge’s 62 home runs in 2022? How about Alex Rodriguez way back in 2000, swatting 41 homers on top of 134 runs, 132 RBI and a .316 batting average? And then there’s that unicorn Shohei Ohtani, who, when he wasn’t going 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts on the mound, posted an incredible 44 homers, 20 stolen bases and .304 batting average last year.
What did these players have in common? They were playing out their “walk” years before hitting free agency.
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Knowing who the soon-to-be free agents are could be an advantage, as these players will strive to put up every last number that can be taken to the negotiating table next offseason. In the meantime, fantasy managers can benefit from the extra effort — and numbers — on the way to titles.
Any fantasy managers teetering between two players at any point in drafts should really consider selecting those fighting for a newer, better contract and reap the benefits all summer.
Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees (ADP: 11.4)
Soto turned 25 after last season and his name is next to some all-time greats at the same point in their careers. He’s 10th in homers with 160 and tops in walks with 640 through age-24 seasons. Just think what will come now that he’s entering his prime, and moving from Petco Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He’s won a batting title, hit 35 homers, scored and driven in 100-plus runs twice each. For good measure, he stole 12 bases last year. With Aaron Judge hitting behind him, Soto may lead the AL in runs scored and could put up an all-around season as good as any entry into free agency in recent memory.
Corbin Burnes, SP, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 22.0)
An ace changing teams before hitting free agency; seems to happen on the regular, but usually at the trade deadline. Burnes is the best of this year’s aces going into their walk years, and he’s moving to a contender that won 100 games last year. He has 677 strikeouts in the past three seasons, and his WHIP of 1.07 last year was the highest he’s had in that span. With 807 runs scored, the Orioles were seventh in the league last year. That kind of offense could put Burnes among the league leaders in wins and pay back his current second-round ADP.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (ADP: 23.1)
The Polar Bear is one of the best power hitters in baseball even though he plays his home games at Citi Field, one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game. Alonso has pounded 123 homers in the past three seasons and is the picture of durability, missing just 20 games over that same span. Going into his age-29 season, he’s very much in his prime and is a good bet to hit 40-plus home runs and drive in over 100 RBI — he has 249 the past two seasons.
The question, though, is will he bring his batting average up from last year’s .217 mark?
Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 29.4)
Yes, the Phillies offense can and will bludgeon opponents into submission, but Wheeler and Aaron Nola are just as responsible for the team making deep playoff runs the past two seasons. Wheeler threw 192 innings last season, striking out 212 and walking a paltry 39 hitters. There has been chatter that bringing Wheeler back to the City of Brotherly Love is a must, and even though he’ll turn 34 in May, the righty is still one of the best pitchers in baseball (SP4 with an ADP in Round 3). Supported by a great lineup and solid defense up the middle, Wheeler should still be a great source for wins and strikeouts, with very good ratios.
Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 44.4)
Fried made just 14 starts last year due to injuries, but finished the year making nine starts over the final two months of the regular season. Though only two starts came after Sept. 12 (one in the playoffs), fantasy managers need to remember Fried made 28 and 30 starts the previous two seasons, totaling 351 innings and going a combined 28-14. The lefty remains one of the top pitchers in the game and is still just 30 years old. In looking at his Fangraphs page, the velocity of his pitches were all nearly identical to previous seasons.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
If leaguemates are letting Fried pass by with injury concerns, take the discount and watch the lefty have a good salary drive.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 50.8)
Goldschmidt literally plays every day, missing just 44 games over the last nine seasons. That’s less than five games a year. He also has surpassed 30 homers in seven of his 11 MLB seasons. His home runs were down last year (25) and his .268 average was 25 points shy of his lifetime average. Is this the sign of a declining player going into his age-36 season? Going off the board with an ADP in the early fifth round, Goldy is probably one of the last first basemen who is bankable for 25-plus home runs while hitting in a decent lineup.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros (ADP: 77.9)
Recently our own Scott Pianowski slid Bregman into the “Boring Veteran Value” pocket (AKA the Raul Ibañez All-Stars). The past two seasons Bregman's averaged 24 home runs and 95.5 RBI, solid numbers at a position where the players start to have some warts on them after Bregman goes off the board at his Round 7 ADP. His 2019 season — with 41 home runs and 112 RBI — is getting deeper in the past, but this is still a player who walks more than he strikes out — 92 BB to 87 K last year — and is a good bet for an OPS over .800. He’ll at the very least repeat those numbers.
Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 80.9)
Walker has had an interesting career, coming up with the Orioles in 2014, bouncing from the Diamondbacks to the Reds to the Braves before finding a home in Arizona in 2017. His best two years have been the last two, topped off by 33 home runs, 103 RBI, 11 steals and an .830 OPS last year. Imagine double-digit steals when he had 12 going into last season. First basemen have been keeping their power numbers well into their 30s, so fantasy managers finding their power elsewhere in the early portion of the draft can look for Walker in Round 7.
Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/3B/SS, San Diego Padres (ADP: 83)
Kim is one of those chess pieces you can move around a fantasy roster, as he qualifies at three positions and is a solid contributor at each. He’ll hit high in a Padres lineup that is being revamped after the loss of Juan Soto. Kim walked 75 times, which was just outside the top 10 in the National League, and is a good bet to replicate, at least, the 17 home runs from last season. He benefited from the new rules that helped the running game, stealing 38 bags.
A multi-position player who has a shot at 20-40 with an ADP in Round 7 — that’s bargain city, especially for fantasy managers who went after power hitters like Matt Olson or Pete Alonso in the earlier rounds.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees (ADP: 99.3)
Torres has said he wants to be a Yankee for life. It would help if he rekindled the 2019 season when he smacked 38 home runs. Hitting 49 home runs the past two seasons is nothing to scoff at, and his strikeouts (98) hit a career-low and his walks (67) a career-high last season. If Torres can keep those numbers trending in the same direction in his age-27 season, in that loaded Yankees lineup, he could reward those fantasy managers selecting him in Round 9.
Other notable players entering their free-agent seasons (all have an ADP past 100)
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
