‘Extraordinary’ hurricane season expected. How can those on Georgia coast be prepared?

Unprecedented. Extraordinary. Concerning. The-most-ever. The nation’s leading scientists and hurricane forecasters used these modifiers to describe the upcoming hurricane season.

“The past is not prologue as it comes to hurricanes of the future,” Rick Spinrad, NOAA Administrator serving under the Secretary of Commerce said at the National Press Club in D.C. on Thursday. “This season is looking to be extraordinary.”

NOAA released its annual hurricane forecast and prediction for the 2024 season, which officially starts next week on June 1.

The Ocean and Atmospheric Administration released it’s highest-ever named storms for the outlook with an 85% probability of an above-normal season, predicting between 17-25 named storms. On average there are 14 named storms. In 2023 there were 20 named storms totaling a cost of $5 billion.

“All of the ingredients are in place to have an active season,” Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service (NWS) said. “Ocean temperature, wind shear, and an active monsoon from West Africa all come together to make this forecast.”

This forecast has the second-highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), only behind 2010. ACE is a metric of the destructive potential of a tropical storm calculated by squaring the maximum wind speed every six hours.

Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane seasonal forecaster and author of Thursday’s outlook, said the sea surface temperature is 1-2 degrees C (2.5 degrees F) degrees above normal, and dramatically warmer than 2010.

“The local sea surface temperature is 120 days ahead of schedule for where they would be later in this year,” he said.

Rosencrans told the Ledger-Enquirer over the last five years the named storms total have been off by an average of four storms per year.

Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist with Climate Central, said the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are in part due to human-caused climate change from the warming greenhouse affect that traps warm air.

“There is more heat in the North Atlantic than we would have without human-caused climate change,” Gilford said.

He added, the changing global weather pattern from El Niño to La Niña will add less vertical wind shear, (one of the key ingredients).

“We are moving into a period with La Niña conditions priming the pump for an active season,” Gilford said.

An additional calculus is the forecast indicates a 77% chance of La Niña forming during August to October, according to Spinrad. “This is more conducive for tropical cyclone development.”

Spinrad added that NOAA is better equipped now than ever for forecasting thanks to the Bipartisan Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Act that built out flood inundation maps and next-generation radar.

AI Spanish Translation & A New Cone

Warmer water, ACE, wind shear all account for hurricanes changing rapidly. Hurricane Idalia, rapidly intensified last year just before it hit the Florida Panhandle and then stretched further inland to Valdosta, Georgia. The community was not prepared resulting in severe damage.

“Every Cat 5 in the last 100 years was a tropical storm three days prior,” Graham told the National Press Club. “[Storms] don’t care about our timeline. The average lead time was 50 hours.”

The hurricane cone graphic, known as the cone of error, will have a new update this year which intends to emphasize areas outside of the cone are still in danger.

“The cone is where we think the center of the storm is going to be about two-thirds of the time,” Graham said. “There are still impacts outside of the cone.”

The National Hurricane Center will release this experimental cone in August.

Graham added that people in or around the cone should constantly be checking for updates.

“Forecasts change quickly. Don’t rely on the first news you heard days ago,” he said.

For decades a human has been at the helm of translating forecasts into Spanish in Puerto Rico. This year, A.I. (artificial intelligence) will translate the language, resulting in a quicker and more efficient translation. He added, a person will check the Spanish for accuracy after the A.I .produces the original copy.

Main Message: Prepare Now

Spinard, Graham, and FEMA’s Deputy Administrator. Erik Hooks, stressed the importance of preparation for such a concerning forecast.

“Take time to make sure you have a clear understanding of your unique risk now,” Hooks said. “What medication requires refrigeration? What medical devices require electricity? What mobility challenges make evacuation harder?”

Hooks said asking these questions now will make the nation more resilient.

“From 2013-2023, 90% of fatalities resulted from water,” Graham said. “Freshwater from heavy rain, and half are in automobiles. The dangers aren’t over when the hurricane passes.”

Gilford said it’s important to have conversations with community about being prepared and the role climate change is playing.

“Talk to your neighbors, friends at a coffee shop, people in your faith-based community about the climate change contribution,” he said.

The Georgia coastline has three added vulnerabilities.

“Increasing hurricane intensity, increasing rainfall, and more storm surge all play a role when having conversations for what the season looks like going forward.”