Exploring Miami Heat power forward options in trade market, with scout feedback

Here’s a question the Heat will face over the next five months now that it knows with certainty what already seemed obvious: Miami won’t be landing Kevin Durant:

Is it worth trading a future first-round pick as part of a package for a good, but not great, power forward to replace Philadelphia-bound P.J. Tucker?

Or would the Heat be better off holding onto all of its valuable draft inventory to dangle in a trade for an All-Star, and getting by with Caleb Martin (and some Jimmy Butler) at power forward?

Among power forwards who could be made available, there a couple that give pause for thought: Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic, who’s the type of high-volume scorer and exceptional three-point shooter that would spread the floor around Bam Adebayo and Butler; and John Collins, who’s the best of the power forwards said to be at least somewhat available.

Ultimately, the view here is neither warrants a first-round pick, because it would take the Heat out of a star market, and because it likely would require trading a contract (Duncan Robinson’s) that could help facilitate a trade for said star. With Collins, there are also financial concerns in play.

What’s more, I would doubt Utah or Atlanta would want to be saddled with Robinson’s deal, which has four years and $74.3 million remaining, with $65 million of that guaranteed.

There’s no indication that Utah is shopping Bogdanovic, who’s due $19.5 million in an expiring contract. But the Jazz is rebuilding, and no player apparently is off limits.

Bogdanovic averaged 18.1 points and 4.3 rebounds last season while shooting 38.7 percent on threes. He has played mostly small forward in his career but transitioned to power forward last season in this modern game where traditional “threes” have morphed into stretch fours.

He’s a career 39.2 percent shooter on threes and has averaged between 18 and 20.1 points each of the past four seasons, one with Indiana and the past three with Utah. But defense certainly isn’t a strength.

If Utah took Robinson’s contract, the Jazz presumably would want more than one first-rounder anyway. But that’s an option worth exploring if it can be done without trading a first-rounder or if the Heat is looking for help at the trade deadline.

It would not make sense under any circumstances to include a first-rounder for Phoenix’s Jae Crowder, who’s entering the final year of his contract. From a cap facilitating standpoint, there isn’t an obvious Heat salary match in any Crowder proposal anyway.

Crowder remains very much an option, but it will take some creativity in how a trade is crafted.

Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes (16.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 39.4 on threes last season) would be a good fit. And while there has been speculation that the Kings might make him available, there’s no evidence that he is.

He’s on an expiring contract, due $18.3 million this season. But is he worth a first-round pick, Robinson and perhaps another asset?

Collins (16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds in 54 games) would make the Heat better, but taking on his contract would be painful; he’s due $23.5 million, $25.3 million, $26.6 million the next three seasons, with a $26.6 million player option for 2025-26. That’s a lot for a player who isn’t an All-Star.

That deal would likely put the Heat into luxury tax territory this season and future ones, presuming Miami gives a lucrative extension to Tyler Herro.

A Collins trade involving Robinson, Nikola Jovic and a future No. 1 pick would work from a cap standpoint, but there would be little incentive for the Hawks to do that, and it’s difficult to see the Heat giving up Herro for a good — but not great — power forward who’s not a very good defender and would push them into the luxury tax.

Indiana’s Myles Turner, due $18 million in an expiring contract, would give the Heat a top shot blocker and a big with a face-the-basket game. But there would be little incentive for the rebuilding Pacers to take on the last four years of Robinson’s contract.

Even a first-round pick and Jovic might not be enough to entice the Pacers to take on Robinson, and it’s questionable whether it would even be prudent for Miami to attach a first-round pick, considering Turner’s expiring contract and the limitations in his offensive game.

Here’s an important point about Turner, who averaged 12.9 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.8 blocks in just 42 games last season: While he has a three-point game, he doesn’t have an efficient three-point game.

Last season, he made 1.5 three-pointers per game, but shot only 33.3 percent on them after making a subpar 33.5 percent and 34.4 percent of his threes the previous two seasons.

Collins, conversely, shot 36.4 percent on threes last season and 37.6 percent in his career.

“To me, Collins would be the better fit alongside Bam,” a Western Conference scout said.

Why?

“He’s more dynamic offensively than Turner, can space the floor better. With Turner, the offense is more complex, more limiting in where Bam can set up and operate. You want Bam in the mid-post area.

“You could make it work with Turner, but I don’t think it’s a great fit. With Collins, he can do a lot more offensively. But he’s not for everybody; he’s a free spirit. And he’s not great defensively.”

The Pacers reportedly were seeking two first-round picks from the Lakers in a proposed trade involving Indiana’s Turner and Buddy Hield and Russell Westbrook’s expiring contract.

Also keep this in mind: A report from NBA writer Michael Scotto this week said that Turner is seeking more than $20 million annually in a new deal. That’s a lot of money for a player who isn’t in the All-Star discussion.

The view here, as we’ve stated: Don’t rush to trade a future No. 1 pick — something you might need when the next disgruntled star surfaces — for most of these players. Bogdanovic, Collins and Turner all would help you, but all come with issues — Bogdanovic’s defense, Collins’ contract and Turner’s subpar shooting as a supposed “stretch” big.

Crowder ultimately could emerge as the best stopgap fit, provided it doesn’t cost the Heat a first-rounder.

NEWS TO NOTE

For those wondering about the Heat adding a power forward in free agency, that appears unlikely. The Heat would surpass the luxury tax threshold if it signs a 15th player to any type of contract, even a minimum deal.

The best remaining free agent power rotation player is probably former ace sixth man Montrezl Harrell, but he’s not the type of stretch big that Erik Spoelstra likes to play alongide Adebayo.

On Wednesday, Harrell had felony charges of marijuana trafficking reduced to a misdemeanor possession in a Madison County (Kentucky) courthouse. The charges will be expunged from his record after 12 months if Harrell is not charged with a crime during that time.

JERSEYS ADDED

For 20 games this season, the Heat plans to wears classic jerseys that were worn by the team from 1988 to 1999. They will be on sale at Heat retail stores this fall. Miami used these as throwback jerseys in 2015-16.