Here’s what experts are saying about FAU vs. San Diego State in Final Four Saturday

All the Cinderella references and commuter school talk were cute in the week leading up to the Final Four, but the Florida Atlantic University Owls are ready to turn their attention to the biggest game in school history.

Traditionally, their fiercest rival is Florida International University, and they would “Bury the Burrow in Red” for their annual basketball showdown. This weekend, the stakes are much higher.

The ninth-seeded Owls face No. 5 seed San Diego State on Saturday at 6:09 p.m. for a spot in the national championship game Monday night. Although their program was not well known nationally until this month, Coach Dusty May and his players do not consider themselves a Cinderella team.

“The term `Cinderella’ has always been that team that hit a spurt late in the season and got hot, more a flash in the pan versus a five-month body of work,” May said. The Owls were 35-3 heading into Saturday’s game, including wins over Tennessee and Kansas State in the East Regional at Madison Square Garden.

“This is a heck of a team,” said ESPN legendary commentator Dick Vitale. “Remember this, they won 35 games. That’s more than anybody in the country.”

San Diego State, meanwhile, is 31-6 under coach Brian Dutcher, with 14 wins in the last 15 games including an upset over top seed Alabama. The Aztecs are known for their stifling defense, which held College of Charleston, Furman, Alabama, and Creighton to an average of 57.2 points the first two weekends of the NCAA tournament.

Here is what experts are saying about the matchup of the Final Four debutants:

ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg likes the Owls to beat the Aztecs.

This is why: “FAU had no problem scoring against a Tennessee team that everyone had agreed was the best defense in the country,” he said on the Life on the Bubble podcast. “FAU plays ahead of your defense, gets extra possessions on the offensive glass, has four gamers and shot makers on the floor and Vladislav Goldin is maybe the most underrated player in the Final Four.”

CBS commentator Wally Szczerbiak also gives FAU the advantage.

“I can’t wait for this matchup,” he said. “Both teams are outside the Power 6, so experienced, they are not going to make mistakes. You’re going to have to make shots, and Florida Atlantic has a little more skill level and is a high percentage shooting team. If they can find open looks, they can knock them down. That’s why I think they can win.”

Jeff Borzello, ESPN college basketball writer, gives the Aztecs the edge.

“I think San Diego State’s defense will prove too much,” Borzello said. “FAU has been able to get advantages this tournament because it plays four guards around a big, and it creates issues for teams guarding ball-screens. The Owls have been able to get into the lane and either finish or kick out for an open three. San Diego State will be able to eliminate a lot of that, pressuring the ball on the perimeter, switching on screens and then having Nathan Mensah protecting the rim. The tempo will also be another factor; San Diego State rarely allows teams to get out in transition -- although coaches have said that’s an area the Aztecs are potentially vulnerable.”

Borzello’s game prediction: San Diego State 62, FAU 57

Myron Medcalf, an ESPN radio host, had a similar take.

“I think Brian Dutcher’s squad will be a problem for FAU,” Medcalf said. “Prior to its Elite Eight game against Creighton, SDSU had led its three previous NCAA tournament opponents by 22 points at halftime. I think it’s difficult for teams to get off to good starts against the Aztecs, and I think that will be the challenge for FAU. A seven-point deficit against most teams is more like a 15-point deficit against SDSU.”

No matter what happens, the Owls will head into the off-season with hope for the future because coach Dusty May is finalizing a lucrative contract extension. His salary is expected to double from about $500,000 to $1 million.

“I learned a long time ago you never mess with happy,” May said. “I know what makes me happy, and right now at this point in my career, I couldn’t be any more pleased and happy with where we are and excited to continue building.”