Do experience, familiarity matter? How Brian Callahan's Titans staff aligns with NFL trends
Building an NFL coaching staff is an inexact science. But recent NFL trends can provide context on what the Tennessee Titans' decisions mean for 2024 and beyond.
Coach Brian Callahan, offensive coordinator Nick Holz and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson are the coaches at the core of the Titans' present and future. Experience isn't on the Titans' side, with Callahan stepping in as a first-time coach with a pair of first-time coordinators. Professional familiarity isn't exactly on the Titans' side either; Callahan and Wilson have never worked together and Callahan and Holz have only worked together for one season despite a relationship that dates back to high school.
Let's examine how much these factors matter in the modern NFL to better understand what position the Titans are in.
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Experience might matter in the short term, but not much beyond that
There were 69 coaching changes in the 10 hiring cycles from 2014-23. Just eight featured a team hiring a first-time coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator as the Titans have. Those eight teams went on to win 34% of their games in Year 1, working out to roughly a 6-11 record, and just one of the eight made the playoffs. By comparison, the other 61 teams had a winning percentage around 44% and 30% made the playoffs.
So, yes, teams in the Titans' position tend to struggle in Year 1. But several teams that followed the same path as the Titans have been vindicated for their hires. The San Francisco 49ers struck gold in 2017 with coach Kyle Shanahan, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and an offensive staff by-committee. The 2018 Indianapolis Colts trio of Frank Reich, Nick Sirianni and Matt Eberflus won nearly 60% of its games together. And the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals went 2-14, but Zac Taylor, Lou Anarumo and Callahan had the squad in the Super Bowl two years later.
Of course, this sample also includes disastrous hires like Matt Rhule and Nathaniel Hackett. But there is proof that when the right trio is in place, experience can be a bit overrated in the long run.
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Staff familiarity: Really high highs and really low lows
For this part, let's consider the sample of 26 coaches hired from 2014-17. It's an interesting group. Eight of the coaches led their team to a conference championship game, with five making at least one Super Bowl and three winning one. But there were also eight coaches who were fired within their first two seasons.
The split between how many coaches had worked with one, both or neither of their coordinators before is practically even. So are the success rates. Each of the three Super Bowl winning coaches lands in a different bucket. Four of the eight coaches with the briefest tenures had never worked with either of their coordinators before, and the other four had previously worked with both of their right-hand men.
Extend this exercise to include position coaches and there still isn't a pattern to be discerned. The coach with the most collective years worked with his staff was Gary Kubiak, who spent 47 combined years working with his 11 assistants. The coach with the fewest was Doug Pederson, who worked just two combined years with his 11 assistants. Kubiak's Broncos won the Super Bowl in Year 1. Pederson's Eagles won the Super Bowl in Year 2 with a practically identical staff to Year 1.
Some of the other coaches with the most time worked with their assistants were flameouts Rex Ryan, Lovie Smith and Jim Tomsula and home-run hires like Shanahan. The flip side includes bad hires ranging from Hue Jackson to Ben McAdoo and strong hires like Sean McVay and Sean McDermott.
The lesson is stacking a staff with familiar faces isn't necessarily good or bad. Neither is starting completely fresh. The best staffs win because they have the best players or freshest ideas, not because of things like continuity, experience or long-developed chemistry.
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Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: What NFL trends say about quality of Tennessee Titans staff hires
