Examining the Heat’s stand-pat decision, the motivation and where it leaves Miami
Part 2 of a two-part series
Aside from the important step of re-signing three rotation players (Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin and Dewayne Dedmon) and retaining key locker room component Udonis Haslem, everything the Heat has done this offseason seemingly has been driven by predicaments it wants to avoid:
▪ The Heat doesn’t want to leave itself without valuable currency that might be needed to acquire the next disgruntled star who asks for a trade.
Hence, the decision not to dangle first-round picks for Christian Wood or Jerami Grant (who were both traded in June) or a handful of power forwards now said to be available in the trade market (Phoenix’s Jae Crowder, Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic, Indiana’s Myles Turner).
▪ The Heat doesn’t want to dip into tax territory if it’s not for a genuine difference-maker, someone who could push them from marginal title contender to legitimate powerhouse. That explains the decision to bypass signing a 15th player. (Miami has 20 players under contract, but two are on two-way deals and four are on training camp deals and likely will end up in the G League.)
The Heat’s payroll stands at $150.1 million and the tax line is $150.3 million; even adding a 15th player to a minimum contract would make Miami a tax team.
▪ The Heat doesn’t want to trigger a ($156.3 million) hard cap for this season, something that would happen if the team uses any more exception money.
In some ways, the Heat — while getting out the message that it likes this roster — can be praised for its patience and discipline.
If a particularly pricey star becomes available before the February trade deadline — such as Portland’s Damian Lillard or Washington Bradley Beal — and Miami wants to pounce, it has the flexibility to surpass $156.3 million, which hard-capped teams (such as the 76ers) cannot do.
The problem is that Lillard and Beal, this offseason, have both discussed how much they want to stay in Portland and Washington, respectively.
But at some point, as everyone watches the Celtics and 76ers and Cavaliers and Hawks strengthen themselves — and the Bucks return largely intact — the question becomes whether the Heat’s patience was prudent or excessive, whether prioritizing flexibility was savvy or counterproductive.
Let’s take the aforementioned trio of motives one by one.
The desire to retain all of its tradable No. 1 picks (two, with the potential to create a third) seems the most defensible, because if a disgruntled star becomes available — and they invariably do — would the Heat want to lose out on making a competitive bid because it traded a first-round pick for Crowder?
Or Indiana’s Turner, whose 33 percent shooting on threes the past two years makes him less than the ideal complement for Bam Adebayo?
Or Atlanta’s John Collins, whose big contract and flimsy defense lessen his value?
More nuanced is the wisdom behind the second and third motivations to stand pat.
With regard to the unstated — but obvious — determination to avoid surpassing the tax line for a “pretty good” but not a great player, I get it.
Once we got to August free agency, there was no remaining NBA free agent who would make enough difference as a 15th player to probably justify jumping over the tax line.
76ers-bound Montrezl Harrell? He could have helped the Heat off the bench, but he’s not the type of stretch big that coach Erik Spoelstra historically prefers to play alongside Adebayo. So he likely isn’t worth being a tax team.
As for the notable names who remain unsigned…
Carmelo Anthony? LaMarcus Aldridge? Blake Griffin? Paul Millsap? All are in steep decline, none better at this stage than Caleb Martin.
Hassan Whiteside? You already have two backup centers with Dedmon and Omer Yurtseven.
Jeremy Lamb? Avery Bradley? Wayne Ellington? You don’t need another wing.
Rajon Rondo or Elfrid Payton? Gabe Vincent showed more than enough last season to validate being a No. 2 point guard.
Keep in mind that while a team can surpass the tax line now and during the season without consequence, it must be under by the end of the 2022-23 regular season to 1) be eligible to collect about $10 million from tax-paying teams and 2) avoid triggering the onerous repeater tax that can cost a team tens of millions of dollars.
The third aforementioned reason behind not spending more is the most conflicting, because the decision to avoid being hard-capped ended up costing the Heat a chance to re-sign P.J. Tucker or sign another proven NBA starting forward.
But the Heat made the decision at a time when it thought it had a chance to acquire Kevin Durant — which ended up being a pipe dream for the entire NBA.
If Miami had a mulligan, the better move — in my view — would have been offering the full $4.1 million bi-annual exception (or a bit less) to T.J. Warren, who took a minimum $2.9 million deal with Brooklyn.
He hasn’t played in nearly two years because of a foot injury but averaged 19.8 points and shot 40.2 on threes in his last healthy season (2019-20 for Indiana) and has the size (6-8) and muscular physique to play power forward.
But here’s the thing: using the biannual exception or the $10.5 million midlevel exception would have triggered the hard cap. The Heat used the full $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel as the starting point on a three-year deal for Martin, which made sense and did not leave the Heat hard-capped.
We don’t question the decision not to offer the full midlevel to Tucker, because that would have eliminated the vehicle used to re-sign Martin (the taxpayer midlevel exception). And Martin had a higher offer elsewhere.
Nor do we question using the taxpayer midlevel to sign Martin over Otto Porter, who got two years and $12 million from Toronto, or Thaddeus Young or Jalen Smith.
But in Warren’s case, the Heat could have signed both Warren and Martin with the two different exceptions (bi-annual and taxpayer midlevel) and stayed under the tax line simply by signing Dedmon to a minimum deal instead of giving him $4.7 million in the first year of a two-year deal. Or Miami could have signed Dedmon to that same deal, signed Warren and Martin and been a tax team and hard-capped, but with a better roster.
So the question then becomes this: Would you rather have Warren and Martin and be hard capped or have Martin and Haywood Highsmith as your power forwards but keep alive the possibility of adding $7 million or more in salary before the Feb. 9 trade deadline? It’s a tough call, but I would have taken Door 1.
Philadelphia decided to become hard-capped and added four helpful players in Tucker, Harrell, De’Anthony Melon and Danuel House.
Minnesota decided to become hard-capped and added rotation players in Bryn Forbes and Kyle Anderson and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert, albeit by overpaying wildly with draft picks.
The Heat’s decision to avoid becoming hard-capped — instead of adding a starting-level power forward in free agency — is one that could ultimately backfire, if Warren has a big year for the Nets and power forward remains a hole for the Heat.
Or the Heat could, in February, be rewarded for its I-don’t-want-to-be-hard-capped patience if, say, Lillard surprisingly demands a trade and Miami has the flexibility that other teams lack in trade permutations.
The Heat’s decision to avoid a hard cap was understandable in early July, when Durant was still available and Miami was reportedly among teams that interested him.
But every decision comes with consequences. And that one, combined with the two others, leaves the Heat as the only Eastern Conference playoff team that didn’t add a rotation player this offseason.
