Ex-MLB general manager breaks down why Royals’ early success is sustainable

The Royals’ magic number for clinching a playoff berth is 142.

Yes, yes, it’s waaaaaay too early for magic numbers. But the Royals’ early season success is a breath of fresh air for fans who watched the team falter in April a year ago and never get within sunflower-seed spitting distance of the postseason.

But the Royals have a 12-7 record and are a game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central and second in the wild-card standings.

The Royals have the best run-differential in baseball (plus-40) and have the second-best ERA in baseball. FanGraphs gives the Royals a 31.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 22.3% chance of winning the Central (and if you want to dream big: a 1% chance of winning the World Series).

Former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd believes the Royals, who lost 106 games a year ago, can sustain their early success. O’Dowd, who is an MLB Network analyst, gave multiple reasons for that thinking.

“For me,” O’Dowd said earlier this week during a broadcast, “one of the things you had to see from the Royals going into this season: Did the players who struggled last year begin to bounce back to form this year, and then does your best player, your superstar, take that next step in his career?

“And I think it’s check, check, check all the way up and down the line. So if you’re a Royals fan, and if you’re the front office, I think you really encouraged.”

O’Dowd pointed to the play of shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who has a .997 OPS and leads the league in runs scored (18) and triples (three).

“He is 90 percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and sprint speed,” O’Dowd said. “You’re gonna win an MVP if you do those on a consistent basis.”

O’Dowd believes the Royals giving Witt a 14-year contract extension (11 years guaranteed) worth $288.7 million has helped the 23-year-old and the team as a whole.

“The contract for me does a lot of different things,” O’Dowd said. “I think there’s a freedom in his game that wasn’t there prior. Obviously he was a young player, but I also think it locks up players around him to know I’m gonna play with this guy for a long period of time. And we have a future together.”

O’Dowd also noted the strong play of left fielder MJ Melendez, who has started strong after a rough 2023 season.

And then there’s the starting rotation, which has the second-best ERA in the majors and has the most innings pitched.

“From the starting pitcher standpoint, the one guy I wanted to see bounce back was Brady Singer, because I felt like he had the tremendous upside,” O’Dowd said. “He’s having a tremendous year. I thought (general manager) J.J. Picollo’s acquisition of (Cole) Ragans a year ago, they legitimately have a one-two punch right now that I think is very, very sustainable. And I think they filled their rotation with smart free-agent signings in (Seth) Lugo and (Michael) Wacha.”

This is not to say O’Dowd views the Royals as a lock to make the playoffs. He sees holes in the lineup and says the bullpen doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts.

But given what’s happened in the early going, O’Dowd sees no reason why the Royals won’t stay in the hunt.

“I think in the American League Central, the Twins were the favorite,” he said. “They’ve lost (Carlos) Correa, (Royce) Lewis, (Max) Kepler, (Anthony) DeSclafiani, they have 11 players on the (IL). The Guardians have already lost (pitcher Shane) Bieber (for the season).

“Everything has changed in only 10% of the season in that American League Central. I think if you’re the Royals, you look at it and say, ‘Hey, we’ve got some confidence now. Let’s continue to grind out day in and day out.’ Eighty-four, 85 wins, you may win a division this year.”