ESPN's Charlie Creme believes Iowa State women's basketball is an NCAA Tournament team

AMES – ESPN college women’s basketball bracketologist Charlie Creme didn't think Iowa State women's basketball's young roster would be ready to compete for a trip to the NCAA Tournament this season. The Cyclones had lost key players from last season's roster and were planning to lean on a group of freshmen to replace them.

“I foresaw this as a true rebuilding year, and we’ll talk to you in 2025 about the tournament,” Creme said.

The Cyclones, despite a recent skid, have been one of the surprise stories of the women's basketball season. They’re in good position to get back to the NCAA Tournament if they take care of business in the second half of the Big 12 season, starting Wednesday when Iowa State hosts Oklahoma State at 6:30 p.m. at Hilton Coliseum.

“It's happened a lot faster than I thought,” Creme said.

Many expected 2023-24 would be about building the foundation for upcoming seasons after five players entered the transfer portal and star Ashley Joens finished her eligibility and headed to the WNBA. The Cyclones also lost post player Stephanie Soares, whose medical waiver request was denied by the NCAA.

Iowa State coach Bill Fennelly fill out the roster with fresh faces, including the highly decorated freshman class. The group included five high school stars − Arianna Jackson, Addy Brown, Audi Crooks, Jalynn Bristow and Kelsey Joens. All five have started games and are playing a lot of minutes. Transfers Hannah Belanger and Isnelle Natabou also have been key contributors.

While the roles of the five freshmen were expected to be significant, the success they’ve had wasn’t predicted by many. The Cyclones enter Wednesday's game against Oklahoma State with a 12-7 overall mark and are tied for fourth place in the conference with a 6-3 record. They boast an impressive resume that includes a signature win over No. 7 Baylor and a nice victory over West Virginia, a team that has been in the rankings this season.

Iowa State began 5-0 in Big 12 and suddenly started appearing in Creme’s projections, something he never envisioned happening this season.

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“(I saw) the talent that walked out the door and I just said, ‘It’s too soon,’” Creme said. “I know there were reasonably high expectations around the new people being brought in and the youngsters. But they’re exactly that.”

Iowa State has gone from one of Creme's "last four in" to one of the "last four with a bye" in Creme’s NCAA Tournament projections. But the season is far from over and there are still plenty of unanswered questions. There are inevitably other upsets coming and likely some bid-stealers with automatic qualifiers coming with conference tournament crowns.

Creme said Iowa State can do plenty to help its cause during the second half of the conference season. The remaining Big 12 slate offers opportunities to spruce up the resume and potentially lock in a bid, with two matchups against Kansas State and one at Texas. The Cyclones also host Oklahoma, another team that’s trying to push its way into the tournament, according to Creme. Even if Iowa State misses out on those opportunities, the Cyclones still could get an invite by avoiding any major miscues. That means beating teams in the lower half of the league and protecting home court against Oklahoma State on Wednesday.

"Because the game's at home, there has to be an expectation of a win," Creme said. "If the game was on the road, you'd still hope that they would win. But it wouldn't detrimental."

A win over K-State, Texas or Oklahoma would help give Iowa State some breathing room. The best thing Iowa State can do right now: Start a new winning streak. The current skid consists of three road losses vs. Texas Tech, Kansas and West Virginia (ISU had a shot in all three games, losing by a combined 16 points). Mixed in was a home victory vs. TCU that wasn't contested − the Horned Frogs had to forfeit due to a lack of available players.

A Cyclones victory in their return home to Hilton Coliseum is an important step toward avoiding any unexpected setbacks.

“The thing that you want to base something simply on, the committee is sitting there, do they think that this team can compete in the NCAA Tournament, how can they compete against NCAA Tournament-level teams?” Creme asked. “Not losing to bad teams also is a mark of a team that belongs in kind of that grouping of NCAA quality teams.”

Tommy Birch, the Register's sports enterprise and features reporter, has been working at the newspaper since 2008. He's the 2018, 2020 and 2023 Iowa Sportswriter of the Year. Reach him at tbirch@dmreg.com or 515-284-8468

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Will Iowa State women's basketball make the NCAA Tournament?