Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Fitting ‘Ozark’ Farewell for Garner
Last Year’s Winner: Gillian Anderson, “The Crown”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Julia Garner has won both times she has been nominated, so should she win a third Emmy for her work on Netflix’s “Ozark,” she would tie “Lou Grant” star Nancy Marchand’s record for the most consecutive Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series wins.
Notable Ineligible Series: Madeline Brewer, Ann Dowd, Yvonne Strahovski, and Samira Wiley, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 6 is not eligible); Thandiwe Newton, “Westworld” (Season 4 is not eligible)
This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2022 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting took place from June 16 to June 27, with the official Emmy nominations announced on Tuesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 3 and Sunday, September 4, with an edited presentation on the ceremonies to be broadcast on Saturday, Sept. 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FXX. Finally, the 74rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 12, and air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
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The State of the Race
Welcome to what will probably be the hardest decisions to make during Emmy voting. These nominees for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series are not just scene stealers, they are integral parts of what made this past season of their shows great.
It is probably easier to go from least likely to win to most likely, so let’s start with J. Smith Cameron, the only “Succession” actor to get their first nomination for the show this year. While she has always been deliciously canny as Waystar exec Gerri Kellman, her best moments moreso came in Season 2. Here’s hoping Season 4 brings her a little more into the spotlight now that her scene partner Kieran Culkin’s Roman needs some emotional support.
Rhea Seehorn is someone who is fully in the spotlight right now as “Better Call Saul” comes to an end during the final round of Emmy voting. Her performance as Kim Wexler has certainly won critics over, but this is only her first year being nominated, and the show missed out on some expected nominations in other categories, so it does not look like she is winning for the show’s penultimate run of episodes.
On the flip side Patricia Arquette is an actress who is pretty consistently nominated, and is a duplicitous delight on heady workplace drama “Severance,” but it seems like voters are still catching up to the new Apple TV+ hit.
Similarly, it seems like Christina Ricci’s best performance days are to come on Showtime’s freshman phenomenon “Yellowjackets.” Ricci is the only one of the show’s four main actresses playing their characters in the present day to opt for recognition in the supporting category, and to be fair, her Misty has a lot of blanks in her backstory to be filled in Season 2. Ricci could fully be a future winner in this category for her performance on the show, but wins for other nominees seem more urgent.
Sarah Snook, for example, has been waiting in the wings for an Emmy honoring her performance as Shiv Roy on “Succession,” the most important female role on the HBO show. While she was devastating in the Season 3 finale, it does seem like she is being a bit brushed aside again in favor of performers who are on more popular, or more recent shows.
Jung Ho-yeon, a fan favorite from “Squid Game,” not only won the 2022 Screen Actors Guild award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series over Snook, she also beat actresses with lead roles like Elisabeth Moss from “The Handmaid’s Tale” and Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon from “The Morning Show.” That show having an overlap of voters with the TV Academy bodes well for her chances, and the gracious speech she gave that night definitely added to her charm.
Sydney Sweeney seems up by a hair though just because of her arguably inexplicable second nomination for “The White Lotus.” She was definitely good on the HBO limited series, but had significantly less to do during the season compared to co-stars like Jennifer Coolidge and Connie Britton. On “Euphoria” though, which is the second most Emmy-nominated drama series this year, she was transcendent. Her performance as Cassie really drove the offbeat plot of the first half of Season 2, and contained one of the most memorable TV moments of the year (“I have never, ever been happier!”). Her receiving two nominations this year seems to indicate that the TV Academy is ready to crown her one to watch the way they did with Zendaya for Season 1.
However, Julia Garner has won the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series two seasons in a row, and is currently nominated for the Netflix crime drama’s final season. There is already talk in other categories about how the Emmys may give the show a send-off, but as a voting body that has no problem giving as many awards as they see fit to an actor they feel is doing a great job, it seems most likely that Garner’s farewell run as Ruth Langmore already has it in the bag.
Power Rankings:
Julia Garner, “Ozark” (Netflix)
Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria” (HBO)
Jung Ho-yeon, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
Sarah Snook, “Succession” (HBO)
Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Patricia Arquette, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession” (HBO)
Will Win: Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Could Win: Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria”
Should Win: Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
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